MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

3 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 

*RES 3: $1.1912 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 1: $1.1861 Hourly resistance Aug 2

*PRICE: $1.1837 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1818 Hourly support Aug 2 

*SUP 2: $1.1784 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 3: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1723 Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: Despite fresh 2017 highs the lack of topside follow through is a

concern for bulls when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B

and the proximity of the Bollinger top. In saying that, the $1.1763 support

remains key with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below

$1.1704 to confirm focus on $1.1583-1.1648. Bulls look for a close above 2017

highs to reconfirm the bullish bias.

CABLE TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Remain A Concern

*RES 4: $1.3539 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.3445 Monthly High Sept 6 

*RES 2: $1.3278 High Sept 19 

*RES 1: $1.3242 2017 High Aug 1

*PRICE: $1.3217 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3191 Hourly support Aug 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3157 High July 27 Now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3135 Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3094 Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on $1.3157 took its toll with a break higher that sees

bulls now initially focused on $1.3278 and then $1.3445-1.3539 where monthly

highs and the 100-WMA are located. Layers of support remain with bears needing a

close below $1.3157 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.3094 to shift focus

back to $1.3004-42 where the 21-DMA is located. The Bollinger top ($1.3237) is

the key concern for bulls.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Increased Correction Risk

*RES 4: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.55 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27 

*RES 1: Y110.98 High Aug 2

*PRICE: Y110.73 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.28 Hourly support Aug 2 

*SUP 2: Y109.91 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 3: Y109.72 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.25 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: Correction risk has increased when the lack of follow through on

Aug 1 is combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/S, daily momentum

divergence and support emerging on dips. Bears now need a close below Y109.91 to

reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on Y108.15-69. Layers of resistance remain

with bulls needing a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a shift higher in focus

with above Y112.87 needed to target Y114.50-115.50.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.59

*RES 4: Y132.90 Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016 

*RES 2: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016 

*RES 1: Y131.40 2017 High Aug 2

*PRICE: Y131.15 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.75 Hourly support Aug 2 

*SUP 2: Y130.59 High July 31 now support 

*SUP 3: Y130.37 Hourly support Aug 1 

*SUP 4: Y129.89 Low Aug 1, 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA supported the past 2 weeks and provided the base for a

break of Y130.75 that sees bullish focus shift to Y131.64-132.23. The 200-WMA

comes in around Y130.65 with bulls needing a weekly close above to add support

to their case. The Bollinger top (Y131.24) is the key concern for bulls &

currently limits follow through. Bears now need a close below Y130.59 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-DMA once again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Topside Failure A Concern

*RES 4: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9

*RES 3: Gbp0.8994 2017 High July 21

*RES 2: Gbp0.8988 High Aug 2

*RES 1: Gbp0.8968 Hourly resistance Aug 2

*PRICE: Gbp0.8960 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8922 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8895 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8890 Low July 27 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8867 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through Wednesday leaves a double daily

top in place Gbp0.8988-94 which is a concern when combined with daily studies

looking to correct from O/B and increases the risk of a correction back to

Gbp0.8805-67. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8968 to gain breathing room and

above 2017 highs to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target Gbp0.9025-68.

Bears need a close below Gbp0.8922 to add weight to their case.

AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To $0.7838-74

*RES 4: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 

*RES 2: $0.7950 - Hourly support Aug 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7936 - Hourly resistance Aug 3

*PRICE: $0.7927 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 2: $0.7874 - Low July 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7852 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of recent 2017 highs and relatively bearish

closes is less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting from O/B.

Pressure on $0.7934 has taken its toll with bears now focused on the $0.7838-74

region where the 21-DMA is located. Initial resistance is now noted at $0.7950

with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $0.8015 to

shift focus back to $0.8044-65.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.650

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31

*PRICE: 92.945 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*SUP 2: 92.330 - 200-WMA

*SUP 3: 92.256 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth lows lacked follow through with support

emerging ahead of the 200-WMA less than ideal given daily studies looking to

correct from O/S. Initial resistance is noted at 93.161 with bulls needing a

close above to gain breathing room whereas above 93.650 is needed to shift

immediate focus back to 94.465-607 where the 21-DMA is situated. Bears now need

a close below 91.919 to reconfirm a bearish bias targeting 86.80-87.65.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.285 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 2.348 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 3: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 2: 2.321 - High Aug 1

*RES 1: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.257 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.243 - Low Aug 1 

*SUP 2: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 3: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24 

*SUP 4: 2.228 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield is finding support on dips below the 55-DMA (2.246) which

is a concern for bears who need a close below the 200-WMA to confirm focus on

tests of 2017 lows. Resistance layers remain with bulls needing a close above

2.285 to gain breathing room and above 2.337 to see pressure back on 2.348-396

where the bear channel top and July highs are located. Overall a close above

2.437 is needed to focus on 2017 highs.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) $47.86 & $50.10 Levels Now Key 

*RES 4: $50.78 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $50.70 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $50.10 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: $49.70 - Hourly resistance July 1a

*PRICE: $49.47 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $49.29 - Hourly support Aug 2 

*SUP 2: $48.38 - Low Aug 1 

*SUP 3: $48.25 - Low July 27 

*SUP 4: $47.86 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from O/B remain the key concern for bulls

who take comfort in support emerging on dips below the 100-DMA ($48.62). Bears

now need a close below $47.86 to confirm focus on 21 & 55-DMAs ($47.09-11).

Bulls gained breathing room with a close above $49.29 but now need a close above

$50.10 to confirm focus on $50.70-51.27 where the bear channel top and 200-DMA

are situated.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1280.8 To Reconfirm Focus on 2017 High

*RES 4: $1282.0 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1280.8 - High June 14 

*RES 2: $1274.0 - High Aug 1 

*RES 1: $1265.8 - Hourly support Aug 2 now resistance

*PRICE: $1261.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1257.2 - Hourly support Aug 3 

*SUP 2: $1257.0 - Low July 28 

*SUP 3: $1252.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1251.9 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation combined with daily studies looking to correct

from O/B and waning momentum are hinting at a test of key support layers

$1241.4-1252.9 where key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated. Layers of

resistance are accumulating with bulls needing a close above $1265.8 to gain

breathing room and above $1280.8 to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 2017

highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]