MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7998 To Shift Focus Back to 2017 Highs

*RES 4: $0.8044 - High Aug 1 

*RES 3: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 

*RES 1: $0.7973 - High Aug 3

*PRICE: $0.7948 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 2: $0.7874 - Low July 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7853 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of recent 2017 highs and relatively bearish

closes is less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting from O/B.

Pressure on $0.7934 took its toll with bears now focused on the $0.7838-74

region where the 21-DMA is located. Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead

of $0.7905 and now look for a close above $0.7998 to shift focus initial focus

back to $0.8044-65 where 2017 highs are located.

KIWI TECHS: Support Emerges Ahead of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7558 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 3: $0.7524 - High July 28 

*RES 2: $0.7496 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 

*RES 1: $0.7458 - High July 21, Hourly resistance Aug 2

*PRICE: $0.7439 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7429 - Hourly support Aug 3

*SUP 2: $0.7405 - Hourly resistance Aug 3 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7391 - Low July 21

*SUP 4: $0.7384 - Hourly support July 20, 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA and key

$0.7334-84 support region where the 21-DMA and daily bull channel base ($0.7362)

are situated. The $0.7458 resistance is key today with bulls needing a close

above to ease bearish pressure and to shift focus back to $0.7524-58 where 2017

highs are noted. Bears look for a close below $0.7429 to ease pressure on

initial resistance and maintain focus on key supports.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Below NZ$1.0588 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: NZ$1.0845 - Monthly High July 20

*RES 3: NZ$1.0832 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: NZ$1.0746 - High Aug 3

*RES 1: NZ$1.0706 - Hourly resistance Aug 3

*PRICE: NZ$1.0687 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0668 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0650 - Low Aug 2

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0630 - 21-DMA, Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: The relatively bearish close Thursday sees pressure back on layers

of support NZ$1.0588-1.0668 where the bull channel base, 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0588 to shift initial focus back to the

55-DMA (NZ$1.0549) and hint at a move back to NZ$1.0479-1.0501. Bulls now look

for a close above NZ$1.0746 to reconfirm a bullish bias and retain initial focus

on tests of July highs (NZ$1.0845).

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y88.81 - High July 28 

*RES 3: Y88.37 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 

*RES 2: Y87.91 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y87.57 - Hourly resistance Aug 3

*PRICE: Y87.45 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.24 - High Mar 20 now support

*SUP 2: Y86.81 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: Y86.59 - Low July 10

*SUP 4: Y85.69 - Low July 5

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-DMA adds weight to the bearish case with

immediate pressure back on Y87.24. Bears look for a close below this level to

initially target Y86.59 and then Y85.43-69 where the 55-DMA is located. Layers

of resistance are building and weighing. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA

to gain breathing room and above Y88.81 To shift initial focus back to 2017

highs (Y89.41).

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Below 21-DMA To Shift Focus Lower 

*RES 4: A$1.5109 - High June 6

*RES 3: A$1.5075 - High July 6

*RES 2: A$1.5033 - High July 11

*RES 1: A$1.4964 - Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: A$1.4934 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.4901 - High Aug 2 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.4857 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.4818 - Hourly support Aug 2 

*SUP 4: A$1.4775 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair is gaining traction above the 55-DMA with initial pressure

on the bear channel top. Layers of resistance A$1.4964-1.5109 are now key. Bulls

need a close above A$1.5109 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs (A$1.5224).

Support layers accumulating add support to the bullish case with bears now

needing a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA

to shift focus back to A$1.4565-1.4680 where the 100-DMA (A$1.4631) is located.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.650

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31

*PRICE: 92.811 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*SUP 2: 92.330 - 200-WMA

*SUP 3: 92.232 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth lows lacked follow through Wednesday with

support emerging ahead of the 200-WMA. Initial resistance is noted at 93.161

with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room whereas above 93.650 is

needed to shift immediate focus back to 94.438-465 where the 21-DMA is situated.

Bears now need a close below 91.919 to reconfirm a bearish bias targeting

86.80-87.65.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below $1.1763 To Hint At Correction

*RES 4: $1.2352 High Dec 18 2014 

*RES 3: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 

*RES 2: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 

*RES 1: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2

*PRICE: $1.1884 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 

*SUP 2: $1.1818 Hourly support Aug 2 

*SUP 3: $1.1784 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 4: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern for

bulls as pressure returns to 2017 highs. Bulls look for a close above current

2017 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and retain focus on $1.2254. Support

layers are again building. Bears need a close below $1.1.1818 to gain breathing

room and below $1.1763 to add weight to the case for a move back to

$1.1583-1.1648 where the 21-DMA ($1.1603) is located.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Retain Focus On June Low

*RES 4: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27 

*RES 3: Y110.98 High Aug 2 

*RES 2: Y110.56 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y110.28 Hourly resistance Aug 3

*PRICE: Y109.99 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.72 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.47 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y109.25 Low June 15 

*SUP 4: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Bears put an end to correction talk with the pair remaining capped

ahead of Wednesday's highs and fresh 2mth lows that retain initial focus on

tests of June lows and then 2017 lows (Y108.13). O/S daily studies looking to

correct remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y110.56

to ease immediate bearish pressure and above Y110.98 to shift focus back to

layers of resistance Y111.39-112.87 where key DMAs are situated.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1280.8 To Reconfirm Focus on 2017 High

*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 3: $1282.8 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1280.8 - High June 14 

*RES 1: $1274.0 - High Aug 1

*PRICE: $1268.3 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1264.4 - Hourly resistance Aug 3 now support 

*SUP 2: $1257.2 - Low Aug 3 

*SUP 3: $1257.0 - Low July 28 

*SUP 4: $1253.3 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite daily studies remaining O/B and looking for a correction

bulls take comfort in the recovery from a dip back towards layers of support

$1243.4-1257.0 where key DMAs and bull channel base ($1250.6) are situated.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $1280.8 to reconfirm the bullish bias

and initially target 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below $1264.4 to gain

breathing room and hint at a dip back to $1257.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]