MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

7 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 

*RES 3: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 2: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now support 

*RES 1: $1.1818 Hourly support Aug 2 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1800 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1768 Hourly support Aug 7 

*SUP 2: $1.1723 Low July 31 

*SUP 3: $1.1671 Low July 28 

*SUP 4: $1.1648 Low July 27

*COMMENTARY: Failure to break the recent 2017 high combined with daily studies

looking to correct from O/B have taken their toll with a sell-off that eased

bullish pressure and hints at a move back to $1.1583-1.1648 where the 21-DMA

($1.1639) is located. Bears now look for a close below $1.1723 to add weight to

their case. Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing a close above

$1.1861 to return focus to 2017 highs.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3004 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1.3165 High Aug 4 

*RES 3: $1.3113 Low Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3094 Low July 31 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3079 Hourly support Aug 4

*PRICE: $1.3058 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3041 Hourly support Aug 7 

*SUP 2: $1.3025 Low Aug 4 

*SUP 3: $1.3004 Low July 25 

*SUP 4: $1.2919 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The bearish key day reversal Thursday was followed up with further

losses to end the week that leave the pair looking heavy and bears focused on

the 55-DMA. Daily studies correcting from O/B add weight to the bearish case

with bears now looking for a close below $1.3004. Layers of resistance have

accumulated with bulls now needing a close above $1.3113 to ease bearish

pressure and above $1.3191 to shift focus back to $1.3259-78.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus On Y111.39-112.41 This Week

*RES 4: Y111.70 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.51 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27, 100-DMA 

*RES 1: Y111.05 High Aug 4

*PRICE: Y110.70 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.52 Hourly resistance Aug 3 now support 

*SUP 2: Y110.23 Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support 

*SUP 3: Y110.00 Hourly support Aug 4 

*SUP 4: Y109.84 Low Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: A double daily bottom around Y109.84 and support ahead of the

55-WMA (Y109.80) combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/S

provided the catalyst for a rally that eased bearish pressure and sees focus on

Y111.39-112.41. Bulls need a close above Y112.41 to hint at a shift higher in

focus with above Y112.87 needed to confirm. Bears now need a close below Y110.23

to ease bullish pressure and below Y110.00 to shift focus back to Y108.15-69.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.47-96 Support Key

*RES 4: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016 

*RES 3: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016 

*RES 2: Y131.40 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 1: Y131.13 High Aug 4

*PRICE: Y130.62 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.46 Hourly support Aug 7 

*SUP 2: Y129.96 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.89 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 4: Y129.47 Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Thursday again found support ahead of the 21-DMA with

bears needing a close below Y129.47 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at

a move back to Y127.44-128.02 and below the channel base (Y128.90) to confirm.

The Y131.40-132.23 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above

Y132.23 to target the bull channel top (Y136.15). The Bollinger top (Y131.24) is

the key concern for bulls & currently limits follow through.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8988-0.8920 Support Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.9164 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: Gbp0.9070 Bollinger Band top

*RES 2: Gbp0.9068 High Oct 13

*RES 1: Gbp0.9054 2017 High Aug 4

*PRICE: Gbp0.9036 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9020 Hourly support Aug 7 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8994 High July 21 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8988 High Aug 2 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8968 Hourly resistance Aug 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: The Gbp0.8922 support confirmed significance providing the platform

for an aggressive rally to fresh 2017 and 10mth highs that sees bulls initially

focused on Gbp0.9068. A close above this level is needed to target

Gbp0.9164-0.9270 where the bull channel top and 2016 highs are located. Bears

need a close below Gbp0.9020 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.8988 to shift

focus back to Gbp0.8922.

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7998 To Shift Focus Back to 2017 Highs

*RES 4: $0.8044 - High Aug 1 

*RES 3: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 

*RES 1: $0.7979 - High Aug 4

*PRICE: $0.7942 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7891 - Low Aug 4 

*SUP 2: $0.7886 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21 

*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of recent 2017 highs and relatively bearish

closes is less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting from O/B.

Pressure on $0.7934 took its toll with bears focused on the $0.7838-86 region

where the 21-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7998 to

shift focus initial focus back to $0.8044-65 where 2017 highs are located. A

close below the 21-DMA is now needed to add weight to the bearish case.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.061 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 94.207 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 2: 93.774 - High Aug 4 

*RES 1: 93.515 - Hourly resistance Aug 4

*PRICE: 93.390 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.061 - Hourly support Aug 4a

*SUP 2: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*SUP 3: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*SUP 4: 92.398 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with hesitation ahead of

the recent 2017 lows & 200-WMA (92.398) less than ideal for bears. Immediate

bearish pressure has been eased with bulls now needing a close above 94.465 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to 95.167-865 where the

55-DMA is noted. Support layers are accumulating with bears looking for a close

below 93.061 to shift pressure back to 2017 lows.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 3: 2.321 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: 2.312 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: 2.289 - High Aug 4

*PRICE: 2.269 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.257 - Hourly support Aug 4 

*SUP 2: 2.237 - Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.218 - Low Aug 3 

*SUP 4: 2.177 - High June 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rally Friday provided bulls breathing room but a close above

the 200-DMA is needed to confirm a return in focus to 2.237-396 where the daily

bear channel top (2.343) is noted. The 2.237-2.257 support region is now key.

Bears need a close below 2.237 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below 2.218

to reconfirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. The Bollinger base (2.211) is the key

concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) 21-DMA Support Now Key 

*RES 4: $51.20 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: $51.11 - Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: $50.63 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: $50.10 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $49.49 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $49.19 - Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support 

*SUP 2: $48.38 - Low Aug 1 

*SUP 3: $48.25 - Low July 27 

*SUP 4: $47.86 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to $47.68-48.38 is a concern for

bears who now look for a close below the 21-DMA ($47.68) to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA ($47.01) to hint at a move back to $42.28

with below $45.16 to confirm. Layers of resistance $50.10-51.20 remain key.

Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a bullish bias and shift

immediate focus to May highs ($52.63).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Hesitation Taking Its Toll

*RES 4: $1274.0 - High Aug 1 

*RES 3: $1267.2 - Hourly support Aug 3 & 4 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1264.4 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: $1260.0 - Hourly resistance Aug 4

*PRICE: $1258.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1255.7 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: $1253.8 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1252.2 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1247.2 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from O/B and hesitation ahead of

the key $1280.8 resistance have taken their toll with a sell-off and bearish

close Friday that sees pressure on layers of support $1243.8-1255.7. Bears need

a close below $1243.8 to confirm a break of key supports and to see immediate

focus return to the 200-DMA ($1229.4). Bulls need a close above $1264.4 to gain

breathing room and above $1280.8 to target 2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]