MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

17 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1861

*RES 4: $1.2012 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 2: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1810 Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1780 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1763 Hourly support Aug 16 

*SUP 2: $1.1730 Hourly support Aug 16a 

*SUP 3: $1.1683 Low Aug 16 

*SUP 4: $1.1648 Low July 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls gained confidence from support emerging on attempts to gain

traction below $1.1700 with a close above $1.1861 needed to return focus to

$1.1909-1.2023 where 2017 highs and bull channel top are located. Support layers

are building. Initial support is noted at $1.1763 with bears needing a close

below to gain breathing room and below $1.1730 to see pressure back on the now

key $1.1683 support.

CABLE TECHS: Supported Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3031 High Aug 10 

*RES 3: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $1.2970 High Aug 15 

*RES 1: $1.2929 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2906 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2880 Hourly support Aug 16 

*SUP 2: $1.2842 Low Aug 16 

*SUP 3: $1.2813 Monthly Low July 7 

*SUP 4: $1.2797 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 100-DMA ($1.2865) and the bull channel base

($1.2868) resulted in a dip below that lacked follow through with the reversal

higher seeing focus back on $1.2929-90. Bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA

to gain breathing room and above $1.2990 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA.

Bears now need a close below $1.2842 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and below

$1.2759 to target the 200-DMA ($1.2640).

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y109.27 Targets 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y111.31 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.05 High Aug 4 

*RES 2: Y110.62 Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y110.23 Hourly resistance Aug 16

*PRICE: Y109.91 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.59 Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 2: Y109.27 Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 3: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14 

*SUP 4: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Friday's lows appears to have ended with the pair

capped ahead of key DMAs. Bulls now need a close above Y110.62 to return focus

to Y111.05-31, above the 55-DMA to hint at a shift higher in focus and above the

200-DMA to target Y114.50-115.50. Bears look for a close below Y109.27 to again

target Y108.10-69 where 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies have corrected

back to more neutral levels which adds weight to the bearish case.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y128.91 & Y130.39 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: Y131.13 High Aug 4 

*RES 3: Y130.87 High Aug 7 

*RES 2: Y130.39 High Aug 16

*RES 1: Y129.82 Hourly resistance Aug 16

*PRICE: Y129.43 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.12 Hourly support Aug 17 

*SUP 2: Y128.91 Low Aug 14 

*SUP 3: Y128.56 Hourly support Aug 11 

*SUP 4: Y127.99 Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-DMA and Y130.23 lacked follow through Wednesday

with the bearish close leaving the pair looking a little heavy. Bears now look

for a close below Y128.91 to reconfirm immediate focus on Y127.78-99 where the

55-DMA is located. Initial resistance is now noted at Y129.82 with bulls needing

a close above to gain breathing room and above Y130.38 to shift focus to

Y131.13-40 and then Y132.23 2016 highs.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.9043-83 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.9350 2016 High Oct 6

*RES 3: Gbp0.9223 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: Gbp0.9151 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Gbp0.9142 2017 High Aug 16

*PRICE: Gbp0.9127 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9114 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9083 Low Aug 16 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9051 Low Aug 11 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9043 Hourly support Aug 10

*COMMENTARY: The Gbp0.9043-51 support region confirmed significance providing

the base for a rally to repeated 2017 and 10mth highs. O/B daily studies and the

Bollinger top remain key concerns for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Layers of support are accumulating with bears needing a close below

Gbp0.9083 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to Gbp0.9043-51. Bulls

currently focus on the bull channel top and then 2016 highs.

AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Returns To $0.7949 Resistance

*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*RES 1: $0.7949 - High Aug 7

*PRICE: $0.7936 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7893 - Hourly resistance Aug 16 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7867 - Hourly resistance Aug 16a now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7849 - Hourly support Aug 16 

*SUP 4: $0.7807 - Low Aug 15

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus has returned to the $0.7949 resistance following

the aggressive rally from ahead of the $0.7778 support and bullish close. Bulls

now need a close above $0.7949 to shift focus back to $0.8044-65 where 2017

highs are located. Layers of support are building with bears now needing a close

below $0.7867 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to $0.7737-0.7809

where the 55-DMA ($0.7737) is noted.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Overall Focus Back On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.145 - High Aug 16 

*RES 2: 93.811 - Hourly resistance Aug 16a 

*RES 1: 93.576 - Hourly resistance Aug 16

*PRICE: 93.408 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.248 - Hourly support Aug 14

*SUP 2: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 3: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*SUP 4: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the recovery from Friday's low with

the sell-off Wednesday resulting in a close below the 21-DMA (93.496). Bears

have regained the upper hand with overall focus having returned to 2017 lows.

Daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels adds weight to the bearish

case. Bulls now need a close above 93.811 to gain breathing room and above

94.476 to confirm focus on 95.167-464 where the 55-DMA (95.316) is situated.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.289 Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 2.320 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 3: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8 

*RES 2: 2.264 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance

*RES 1: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 2.236 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.222 - Low Aug 16 

*SUP 2: 2.203 - Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 3: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.174 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.289 resistance confirmed significance with the yield rejected

ahead of this level and the sell-off resulting in a bearish close. Initial focus

has now returned to the 2.174-177 supports with a close below needed to confirm

focus on 2.053-121 where 2017 lows and the 200-WMA are situated. Layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls now needing a close above

2.264 to shift focus back to 2.289.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Pressuring 55-DMA/Channel Base 

*RES 4: $48.63 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $48.48 - Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 2: $48.33 - High Aug 16 

*RES 1: $47.60 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $47.09 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $47.04 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: $46.88 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $45.59 - Low July 24 

*SUP 4: $45.31 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from Aug 1 highs continues to find support

around the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base. Bears need a close below the

55-DMA to shift immediate focus to $45.31-59 and overall focus back to tests of

$42.51 June lows. Resistance layers are building with bulls needing a close

above the 100-DMA to gain breathing room and above $49.30 to return focus to

$50.51-51.29 where the 200-DMA is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Back On 2017 High

*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $1302.2 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 1: $1292.5 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1287.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.7 - Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1267.7 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $1267.5 - Low Aug 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise further on the correction lower from

ahead of 2017 highs with gold finding support ahead of the daily bull channel

base and 21-DMA ($1267.2). The close above $1277.7 sees bulls gain breathing

room but a close above 2017 highs is needed to reconfirm the bullish bias. Bears

need a close below $1277.7 to ease bullish pressure and return initial focus to

$1267.2-1267.7.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]