MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.1823

*RES 4: $1.2070 High Aug 29 

*RES 3: $1.2009 Hourly support Aug 30a now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1984 High Aug 30 

*RES 1: $1.1922 High Sept 4

*PRICE: $1.1907 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1889 Hourly support Sept 4 

*SUP 2: $1.1826 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1823 Low Sept 1 

*SUP 4: $1.1730 Low Aug 21

*COMMENTARY: Having lacked follow through on fresh 2017 and 2+ year highs last

week the pair saw pressure return to the 21-DMA with the rejection ahead of

$1.1984 Friday a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below

$1.1823 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus to

$1.1648-1.1730 where the channel base is noted. Bulls still need a close above

$1.1984 to reconfirm focus on the bull channel top ($1.2175).

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995-1.3031 Resistance Key

*RES 4: $1.3059 High Aug 7 

*RES 3: $1.3031 High Aug 10, Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1.2995 High Sept 1 

*RES 1: $1.2966 High Sept 4

*PRICE: $1.2930 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2905 Low Sept 1 

*SUP 2: $1.2895 Hourly resistance Aug 31 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2853 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $1.2793 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through remains a concern as bulls look

for a close above $1.2995 to confirm focus on $1.3031 and above this level to

shift focus back to $1.3157-1.3278. Layers of support remain in place with bears

still needing a close below $1.2895 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.2853

to return pressure to $1.2770.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.67-111.33 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y110.67 High Aug 31 

*RES 3: Y110.59 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y110.48 High Sept 1 

*RES 1: Y109.93 High Sept 4

*PRICE: Y109.26 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.96 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 2: Y108.71 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: A volatile week saw the pair capped ahead of the Y111.05-33 region

where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated which retained bearish focus on tests of the

key Y107.47-108.10 region. The Y110.67-111.33 resistance region is seen as key

this week. Bulls need a close above Y111.33 to end bearish hopes and target

Y112.18-45 where the 200-DMA is situated. Bears look for a close below Y107.47

to shift immediate focus to Y106.95.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.70 2017 High Aug 30

*RES 3: Y131.54 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y131.35 High Sept 1

*RES 1: Y130.70 High Sept 4

*PRICE: Y130.08 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.69 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.60 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 3: Y129.22 55-DMA, Daily bull channel base 

*SUP 4: Y128.31 Low Aug 22

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 21-DMA following the failure to gain

traction topside above Y130.60 Monday with the Y129.22-69 support region key

today. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to Y127.43. Correcting O/B daily studies are weighing on the pair.

Bulls now look for a close above Y130.70 to ease pressure on key supports and

return immediate focus to tests of recent 2017 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.9149

*RES 4: Gbp0.9270 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: Gbp0.9248 Low Aug 29 now resistance

*RES 2: Gbp0.9238 High Aug 31

*RES 1: Gbp0.9226 High Sept 4

*PRICE: Gbp0.9208 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9174 Hourly support Sept 4 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9158 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9149 High Aug 18 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to the 21-DMA and Gbp0.9149 support

bears have so far failed to manage a close below Gbp0.9149 needed to confirm an

easing of bullish pressure and to shift focus back to layers of support

Gbp0.8981-0.9049. Daily studies have corrected back to a more neutral level.

Bulls still need a close above Gbp0.9248 to regain the upper hand and reconfirm

focus on 2016 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7917 & 0.7996 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: $0.7996 - High Aug 30

*RES 1: $0.7989 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $0.7957 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7937 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7917 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: $0.7829 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $0.7863 support confirmed significance Thursday with the pair

having looked heavy before bouncing aggressively. Hesitation ahead of $0.7996

remains less than ideal for bulls with the Bollinger top limiting follow

through. Bulls need a close above $0.7996 to reconfirm focus on $0.8044-65 and

above $0.8065 to reconfirm the bullish bias and target 2015 highs ($0.8165).

Bears still need a close below $0.7917 to return pressure to $0.7863.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.347

*RES 4: 93.451 - Hourly resistance Aug 23 

*RES 3: 93.347 - High Aug 31 

*RES 2: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 1: 92.711 - High Sept 4

*PRICE: 92.490 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.445 - Low Sept 4

*SUP 2: 92.100 - Low Sept 1

*SUP 3: 91.621 - 2017 Low Aug 29

*SUP 4: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2017 and 2+ year lows appears to be in

trouble with a rejection above the 21-DMA (93.114) Thursday. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 93.347 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to

93.628-94.476 where the 55-DMA (94.324) is noted. While 93.347 caps bears remain

focused on 91.514 with a close below needed to target 89.776-90.325.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.180

*RES 4: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.200 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 2.166 - Hourly resistance Aug 31

*PRICE: 2.157 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.138 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: 2.099 - Low Sept 1 

*SUP 3: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: 2.055 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls gain confidence following Friday bounce from ahead of recent

2017 lows that sees pressure back on the 2.180 resistance. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 2.180 to shift initial focus back to 2.200-2.229. Initial

support is now noted at 2.138 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure

on 2.180 and reconfirm focus on 2.055-088 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are

situated.

NYMEX WTI: (V17) Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $48.91 - High Aug 21 

*RES 3: $48.07 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: $47.84 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $47.65 - High Sept 4

*PRICE: $47.42 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $47.15 - Hourly support Sept 4 

*SUP 2: $46.56 - Low Sept 1 

*SUP 3: $45.84 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $45.58 - Low July 24 & Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to the $45.21-58 support region bears

failed to manage the close below needed to shift overall focus back to tests of

$42.52 June lows. The bounce Thursday provided bulls breathing room with bulls

still looking for a close above the 100-DMA ($48.07) to return immediate focus

to $48.91-49.31. The Bollinger band base ($45.82) remains the key concern for

bears and recently limited follow through.

SPOT GOLD: Bulls Targeting 2016 High

*RES 4: $1353.3 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1352.6 - Monthly High Sept 7 2016 

*RES 2: $1343.6 - High Sept 22 2016 

*RES 1: $1339.8 - 2017 High Sept 4

*PRICE: $1335.9 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1328.8 - High Sept 4 

*SUP 2: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 3: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $1298.4 - Low Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: A gapping move higher to start the new week has resulted in fresh

2017 and 12mth highs with immediate bullish focus now on $1343.6-1375.2 where

2016 highs are located. The Bollinger top ($1335.4) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears need a close below $1328.8 to gain breathing room and below $1313.7

to shift initial focus back to $1294.6-1295.5 where the 21-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]