Free Trial

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
15 September 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1926
*RES 4: $1.2045 Hourly resistance Sept 8 
*RES 3: $1.1995 High Sept 13 
*RES 2: $1.1964 Hourly support Sept 13 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.1926 Low Sept 12 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1906 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1868 Hourly support Sept 14 
*SUP 2: $1.1838 Low Sept 14 
*SUP 3: $1.1823 Low Sept 1 
*SUP 4: $1.1821 Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2017 highs continues with the pair flirting
with the 21-DMA ($1.1898). Bears continue to focus on $1.1821-23 where the daily
bull channel base is although the recovery from the day's lows Thursday is less
than ideal. Bulls still need a close above $1.1926 to ease immediate bearish
pressure and above $1.2045 to reconfirm initial focus on retests of 2017 highs
with overall focus on the channel top ($1.2264).
     CABLE TECHS: $1.3563 Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: $1.4006 Monthly Low Apr 6 2016 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.3563 High June 27 2016 
*RES 2: $1.3480 Monthly High July 15 2016 
*RES 1: $1.3400 2017 High Sept 15, 100-WMA
*PRICE: $1.3392 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3373 Hourly resistance Sept 14 now support 
*SUP 2: $1.3344 Hourly support Sept 14 
*SUP 3: $1.3298 Hourly resistance Sept 12 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.3262 Hourly support Sept 12
*COMMENTARY: The break of $1.3159 was quickly reversed with an aggressive rally
that sees the pair pressuring the 100-WMA having traded at fresh 2017 & 14mth
highs. The Bollinger top ($1.3383) and O/B studies remain key concerns for
bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below $1.3344 to ease immediate
bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to $1.3147 lows from Thursday.
Bulls now look for a close above $1.3563 to shift initial focus to $1.4006.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Struggling With Key Resistance Region
*RES 4: Y111.33 High July 28 
*RES 3: Y111.13 100-DMA 
*RES 2: Y111.04 High Sept 14 
*RES 1: Y110.80 Hourly resistance Sept 14
*PRICE: Y110.36 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.89 Hourly support Sept 15 
*SUP 2: Y109.55 Hourly support Sept 15a 
*SUP 3: Y109.23 Low Sept 12 
*SUP 4: Y108.97 Hourly resistance Sept 7a now support
*COMMENTARY: The pair is struggling a little with topside follow through lacking
Thursday and the pair rejected ahead of the 100-DMA and key Y111.33 resistance.
Bulls continue to look for a close above Y111.33 to shift initial focus to the
200-DMA (Y112.26). Key support is now noted at Y109.55 with bears needing a
close below to confirm a return in focus to tests of 2017 lows. The Bollinger
top remains the key concern and currently limits follow through.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of Bull Channel Base
*RES 4: Y132.25 2016 High Jan 29
*RES 3: Y132.22 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: Y132.01 2017 High Sept 13
*RES 1: Y131.76 High Sept 14
*PRICE: Y131.45 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.97 Hourly support Sept 15
*SUP 2: Y130.50 Hourly support Sept 15a 
*SUP 3: Y130.41 Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 4: Y129.88 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The 21 (Y130.30) & 55 (Y129.88) DMAs and the bull channel base have
supported during Sept and bulls take comfort in support emerging on Thursday's
dip back towards these levels. Bears continue to look for a close below Y129.25
to confirm breaks of key supports and shift focus back to Y127.40 where the
100-DMA is located. While the daily bull channel base supports bulls remain
focused on 2016 highs with a close above initially targeting Y134.60.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.8981 To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: Gbp0.9064 Hourly support Sept 12 now resistance
*RES 3: Gbp0.9045 High Sept 14
*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 Low Sept 12 now resistance
*RES 1: Gbp0.8920 Hourly resistance Sept 14
*PRICE: Gbp0.8889 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8866 Low Sept 14 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8854 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8843 21-WMA 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8797 High July 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: Wednesday's close below the 55-DMA added weight to the bearish case
with Thursday's sell-off seeing pressure on Gbp0.8843-54 where the 21-WMA &
100-DMA are located. Bears look for a close below the 21-WMA to confirm focus on
Gbp0.8702-41 where the 200-DMA is noted. O/S studies and the Bollinger base
(Gbp0.8924) are key concerns for bears. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8980 to
ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.9107 to shift focus back to Gbp0.9213-37.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Supported Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: $0.8081 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.8061 - Hourly resistance Sept 11
*RES 2: $0.8044 - High Sept 13
*RES 1: $0.8016 - High Sept 14
*PRICE: $0.7995 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7981 - Hourly support Sept 14 
*SUP 2: $0.7953 - Low Sept 14 
*SUP 3: $0.7920 - Hourly support Aug 31 
*SUP 4: $0.7889 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2017 highs saw the pair dip below the 21-DMA
($0.7967) before finding support ahead of the redrawn bull channel base
($0.7952). Bears now look for a close below the bull channel base to see the
$0.7863-89 support pressured. Initial resistance is now noted at $0.8016 with
bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. The $0.8081 resistance is
key with bulls needing a close above to reconfirm initial focus on 2017 highs.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Capped Around 21-DMA
*RES 4: 92.711 - High Sept 4 
*RES 3: 92.661 - High Sept 14 
*RES 2: 92.446 - Hourly resistance Sept 14a 
*RES 1: 92.180 - Hourly resistance Sept 14
*PRICE: 92.083 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 91.980 - Hourly support Sept 15
*SUP 2: 91.710 - Low Sept 13
*SUP 3: 91.626 - Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support
*SUP 4: 91.410 - Low Sept 11
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 lows has potentially come to an end with
rejection above the 21-DMA (92.513) and the index looking heavy following a
bearish close. The close below 92.100 eases bullish pressure and with below
91.626 to confirm initial focus on 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are building
with bulls needing a close above 92.661 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
above 92.936 to shift focus to 93.347-762 where the 55-DMA (93.633) is situated.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.118-171 Support Region Key
*RES 4: 2.240 - 100-DMA 
*RES 3: 2.235 - 55-DMA 
*RES 2: 2.216 - High Sept 14 
*RES 1: 2.204 - Hourly resistance Sept 14
*PRICE: 2.181 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.143 - Hourly support Sept 12 
*SUP 3: 2.118 - Hourly support Sept 11 
*SUP 4: 2.096 - Hourly breakout level Sept 11
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 lows is in trouble having been aggressively
rejected ahead of the 55 & 100-DMAs Thursday. Resistance layers are building and
weighing with bears needing a close below 2.171 to ease bullish pressure and
below 2.118 to shift initial focus back to 2.075 and overall focus back to tests
of 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above 2.204 to gain breathing room and
above the 100-DMA to initially pressure the bear channel top (2.263).
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA 
*RES 4: $51.45 - Low May 23 now resistance 
*RES 3: $51.13 - 200-DMA 
*RES 2: $50.88 - High Sept 14 
*RES 1: $50.29 - Hourly support Sept 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $50.11 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $49.84 - Highs Sept 9 & 13 now support 
*SUP 2: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13 
*SUP 3: $48.96 - High Sept 12 now support 
*SUP 4: $48.61 - Low Sept 13
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Aug lows now sees the contract hesitating ahead
of the 200-DMA and $51.45 resistance and looking a little heavy. Bears now look
for a close below $49.84 to ease bullish pressure and below $48.96 to shift
immediate focus to key DMAs clustered $48.02-42. The $51.45 resistance remains
key. Bulls need a close above $51.45 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and to
focus on $52.62 May highs.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1357.9 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: $1350.5 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1342.1 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance A 
*RES 1: $1334.8 - High Sept 13
*PRICE: $1330.8 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1316.3 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1315.5 - Hourly support Sept 14 
*SUP 3: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 
*SUP 4: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2017 highs has found support ahead of the
21-DMA which is less than ideal given the significance of the $1294.6-1313.7
support region. Bears need a close below $1313.7 to add weight to the case for a
test of the 55-DMA ($1275.9) and below $1294.6 to confirm. In saying that, the
$1342.resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to initially
target $1375.1 2016 highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.