MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1926

*RES 4: $1.2045 Hourly resistance Sept 8 

*RES 3: $1.1995 High Sept 13 

*RES 2: $1.1964 Hourly support Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1926 Low Sept 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1906 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1868 Hourly support Sept 14 

*SUP 2: $1.1838 Low Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $1.1823 Low Sept 1 

*SUP 4: $1.1821 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2017 highs continues with the pair flirting

with the 21-DMA ($1.1898). Bears continue to focus on $1.1821-23 where the daily

bull channel base is although the recovery from the day's lows Thursday is less

than ideal. Bulls still need a close above $1.1926 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above $1.2045 to reconfirm initial focus on retests of 2017 highs

with overall focus on the channel top ($1.2264).

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3563 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1.4006 Monthly Low Apr 6 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3563 High June 27 2016 

*RES 2: $1.3480 Monthly High July 15 2016 

*RES 1: $1.3400 2017 High Sept 15, 100-WMA

*PRICE: $1.3392 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3373 Hourly resistance Sept 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3344 Hourly support Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $1.3298 Hourly resistance Sept 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3262 Hourly support Sept 12

*COMMENTARY: The break of $1.3159 was quickly reversed with an aggressive rally

that sees the pair pressuring the 100-WMA having traded at fresh 2017 & 14mth

highs. The Bollinger top ($1.3383) and O/B studies remain key concerns for

bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below $1.3344 to ease immediate

bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to $1.3147 lows from Thursday.

Bulls now look for a close above $1.3563 to shift initial focus to $1.4006.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Struggling With Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: Y111.33 High July 28 

*RES 3: Y111.13 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.04 High Sept 14 

*RES 1: Y110.80 Hourly resistance Sept 14

*PRICE: Y110.36 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.89 Hourly support Sept 15 

*SUP 2: Y109.55 Hourly support Sept 15a 

*SUP 3: Y109.23 Low Sept 12 

*SUP 4: Y108.97 Hourly resistance Sept 7a now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair is struggling a little with topside follow through lacking

Thursday and the pair rejected ahead of the 100-DMA and key Y111.33 resistance.

Bulls continue to look for a close above Y111.33 to shift initial focus to the

200-DMA (Y112.26). Key support is now noted at Y109.55 with bears needing a

close below to confirm a return in focus to tests of 2017 lows. The Bollinger

top remains the key concern and currently limits follow through.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: Y132.25 2016 High Jan 29

*RES 3: Y132.22 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y132.01 2017 High Sept 13

*RES 1: Y131.76 High Sept 14

*PRICE: Y131.45 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.97 Hourly support Sept 15

*SUP 2: Y130.50 Hourly support Sept 15a 

*SUP 3: Y130.41 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: Y129.88 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 21 (Y130.30) & 55 (Y129.88) DMAs and the bull channel base have

supported during Sept and bulls take comfort in support emerging on Thursday's

dip back towards these levels. Bears continue to look for a close below Y129.25

to confirm breaks of key supports and shift focus back to Y127.40 where the

100-DMA is located. While the daily bull channel base supports bulls remain

focused on 2016 highs with a close above initially targeting Y134.60.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.8981 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Gbp0.9064 Hourly support Sept 12 now resistance

*RES 3: Gbp0.9045 High Sept 14

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 Low Sept 12 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.8920 Hourly resistance Sept 14

*PRICE: Gbp0.8889 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8866 Low Sept 14 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8854 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8843 21-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8797 High July 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: Wednesday's close below the 55-DMA added weight to the bearish case

with Thursday's sell-off seeing pressure on Gbp0.8843-54 where the 21-WMA &

100-DMA are located. Bears look for a close below the 21-WMA to confirm focus on

Gbp0.8702-41 where the 200-DMA is noted. O/S studies and the Bollinger base

(Gbp0.8924) are key concerns for bears. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8980 to

ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.9107 to shift focus back to Gbp0.9213-37.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Supported Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.8081 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.8061 - Hourly resistance Sept 11

*RES 2: $0.8044 - High Sept 13

*RES 1: $0.8016 - High Sept 14

*PRICE: $0.7995 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7981 - Hourly support Sept 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7953 - Low Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7920 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $0.7889 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2017 highs saw the pair dip below the 21-DMA

($0.7967) before finding support ahead of the redrawn bull channel base

($0.7952). Bears now look for a close below the bull channel base to see the

$0.7863-89 support pressured. Initial resistance is now noted at $0.8016 with

bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. The $0.8081 resistance is

key with bulls needing a close above to reconfirm initial focus on 2017 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Capped Around 21-DMA

*RES 4: 92.711 - High Sept 4 

*RES 3: 92.661 - High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 92.446 - Hourly resistance Sept 14a 

*RES 1: 92.180 - Hourly resistance Sept 14

*PRICE: 92.083 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 91.980 - Hourly support Sept 15

*SUP 2: 91.710 - Low Sept 13

*SUP 3: 91.626 - Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support

*SUP 4: 91.410 - Low Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 lows has potentially come to an end with

rejection above the 21-DMA (92.513) and the index looking heavy following a

bearish close. The close below 92.100 eases bullish pressure and with below

91.626 to confirm initial focus on 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are building

with bulls needing a close above 92.661 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

above 92.936 to shift focus to 93.347-762 where the 55-DMA (93.633) is situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.118-171 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 2.240 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.235 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.216 - High Sept 14 

*RES 1: 2.204 - Hourly resistance Sept 14

*PRICE: 2.181 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.143 - Hourly support Sept 12 

*SUP 3: 2.118 - Hourly support Sept 11 

*SUP 4: 2.096 - Hourly breakout level Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 lows is in trouble having been aggressively

rejected ahead of the 55 & 100-DMAs Thursday. Resistance layers are building and

weighing with bears needing a close below 2.171 to ease bullish pressure and

below 2.118 to shift initial focus back to 2.075 and overall focus back to tests

of 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above 2.204 to gain breathing room and

above the 100-DMA to initially pressure the bear channel top (2.263).

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA 

*RES 4: $51.45 - Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: $51.13 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $50.88 - High Sept 14 

*RES 1: $50.29 - Hourly support Sept 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $50.11 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $49.84 - Highs Sept 9 & 13 now support 

*SUP 2: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13 

*SUP 3: $48.96 - High Sept 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $48.61 - Low Sept 13

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Aug lows now sees the contract hesitating ahead

of the 200-DMA and $51.45 resistance and looking a little heavy. Bears now look

for a close below $49.84 to ease bullish pressure and below $48.96 to shift

immediate focus to key DMAs clustered $48.02-42. The $51.45 resistance remains

key. Bulls need a close above $51.45 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and to

focus on $52.62 May highs.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1357.9 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1350.5 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1342.1 - Hourly support Sept 8 now resistance A 

*RES 1: $1334.8 - High Sept 13

*PRICE: $1330.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1316.3 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1315.5 - Hourly support Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 4: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2017 highs has found support ahead of the

21-DMA which is less than ideal given the significance of the $1294.6-1313.7

support region. Bears need a close below $1313.7 to add weight to the case for a

test of the 55-DMA ($1275.9) and below $1294.6 to confirm. In saying that, the

$1342.resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to initially

target $1375.1 2016 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]