MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.1901

*RES 4: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 3: $1.2048 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1.2045 Hourly resistance Sept 8 

*RES 1: $1.1995 High Sept 13

*PRICE: $1.1968 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1901 Hourly support Sept 15a 

*SUP 2: $1.1868 Hourly support Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $1.1838 Low Sept 14 

*SUP 4: $1.1823 Low Sept 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair dipped back towards the daily bull channel base ($1.1832)

last week with bulls taking comfort in the bounce and close above $1.1926. Bulls

need a close above $1.2045 to reconfirm initial focus on retests of 2017 highs

with overall focus on the channel top ($1.2286). Layers of support remain and

studies are well placed for gains. Bears need a close below $1.1901 to ease

bullish pressure.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3450

*RES 4: $1.4006 Monthly Low Apr 6 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3616 2017 High Sept 15 

*RES 2: $1.3573 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3532 Hourly support Sept 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3514 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3465 Low Sept 18 

*SUP 2: $1.3450 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3381 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: $1.3344 Hourly support Sept 14

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth highs continued Monday, albeit marginally with

bullish focus now on $1.4006 Apr 2016 monthly highs. In saying that, the

correction lower Monday is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still need a close

below $1.3450 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below $1.3306 to

shift focus back to $1.3148 lows from last week. O/B studies and the Bollinger

top ($1.3568) remain concerns for bulls.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus Shifts to 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y112.42 High July 20 

*RES 3: Y112.23 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y112.19 High July 26 

*RES 1: Y111.71 High July 27

*PRICE: Y111.53 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.33 Hourly support Sept 18 

*SUP 2: Y110.99 Hourly support Sept 18 a 

*SUP 3: Y110.62 Hourly support Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Y110.29 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The NY close above the Y111.33 level adds support to the bullish

case and sees focus now on the 200-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the

200-DMA to shift initial focus to July highs (Y114.49) and overall focus to 2017

highs (Y118.61). Initial support is noted at Y111.33 but bears look for a close

below Y110.99 to ease bullish pressure and below Y110.62 to shift initial focus

back to Y109.55. The Bollinger top (Y111.55) is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On Y134.59

*RES 4: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015

*RES 3: Y134.22 High Dec 9 2015

*RES 2: Y133.79 High Dec 16 2015

*RES 1: Y133.52 2017 High Sept 19

*PRICE: Y133.45 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.22 Hourly support Sept 19 

*SUP 2: Y132.58 Hourly support Sept 18 

*SUP 3: Y132.21 Hourly resistance Sept 15 now support 

*SUP 4: Y131.75 High Sept 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21 (Y130.80) & 55 (Y130.07) DMAs and channel base supported

during Sept and support emerging on dips Friday provided the catalyst for a

rally to fresh 2017 and nearly 2yr highs with immediate focus on Y134.59.

Overall bullish focus remains on the channel top (Y138.59). The Bollinger top

(Y133.27) is the key concern for bulls. Bears need a close below Y132.58 to ease

bullish pressure and below Y131.75 to return focus to the 21-DMA/channel base.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 Low Sept 12 now resistance

*RES 3: Gbp0.8920 Hourly resistance Sept 14

*RES 2: Gbp0.8907 High Sept 15

*RES 1: Gbp0.8867 Low Sept 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8856 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8844 Hourly support Sept 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8809 Hourly support Sept 18a 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8775 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8739 Monthly Low July 14

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies are now looking to correct from very O/S levels and

increase the risk of a correction. Bulls continue to look for a close above

Gbp0.8867 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above Gbp0.8920 to shift focus

back to the 55-DMA (Gbp0.9015). Support layers are building with bears now

needing a close below Gbp0.8844 to ease pressure on initial resistance and

retain bearish focus on tests of the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8706).

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.8000-81 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $0.8061 - Hourly resistance Sept 11

*RES 3: $0.8035 - High Sept 18

*RES 2: $0.8000 - Hourly support Sept 18 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7996 - Hourly resistance Sept 19

*PRICE: $0.7969 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7957 - Hourly support Sept 19 

*SUP 2: $0.7920 - Low Sept 1 

*SUP 3: $0.7901 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7878 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The reversal lower from the day's highs Monday sees the pair

flirting with the 21-DMA ($0.7970) & bull channel base ($0.7967) with focus on

$0.7920. Bears need a close below this level to pressure the 55-DMA and below

$0.7863 to shift initial focus back to $0.7781-0.7807. Layers of resistance are

building once again with bulls now needing a close above $0.8000 to gain

breathing room and above $0.8081 to shift focus back to 2017 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 92.661

*RES 4: 92.711 - High Sept 4 

*RES 3: 92.661 - High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 92.446 - Hourly resistance Sept 14a 

*RES 1: 92.210 - High Sept 18

*PRICE: 91.926 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 91.732 - Hourly support Sept 15

*SUP 2: 91.577 - Low Sept 15

*SUP 3: 91.410 - Low Sept 11

*SUP 4: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 lows has potentially come to an end with

rejection above the 21-DMA (92.380) and around the daily bear channel top

(92.380) last week. Bears now need a close below 91.577 to add weight to the

case for a retest of 2017 lows. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a

close above 92.661 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and above 92.936 to shift

focus to 93.347-762 where the 55-DMA (93.474) is situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.208

*RES 4: 2.290 - High Aug 4 

*RES 3: 2.258 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: 2.238 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.233 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 2.218 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.208 - Low Sept 18 

*SUP 2: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.143 - Hourly support Sept 12 

*SUP 4: 2.118 - Hourly support Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained control Monday with immediate pressure on 55 &

100-DMAs. Bulls look for a close above the daily bear channel top to confirm

breaks of key resistance layers and above 2.290 to confirm focus on 2.333-337

where the 200-DMA (2.332) is situated. Layers of support continue to build with

bears now needing a close below 2.208 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.118

to shift focus back to 2017 lows.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) $50.88-51.45 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: $52.62 - Monthly High May 25

*RES 3: $51.45 - Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: $51.10 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $50.88 - High Sept 14

*PRICE: $50.33 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $50.17 - Hourly support Sept 18 

*SUP 2: $49.57 - Low Sept 14 

*SUP 3: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13 

*SUP 4: $48.96 - High Sept 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Aug lows now sees the contract hesitating ahead

of the 200-DMA and $51.45 resistance as daily studies linger at O/B levels.

Bears look for a close below $49.57 to ease bullish pressure and below $48.96 to

shift immediate focus to key DMAs clustered $48.06-64. The $51.45 resistance

remains key. Bulls need a close above $51.45 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA

and to focus on $52.62 May highs.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1294.4

*RES 4: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 3: $1328.3 - Hourly resistance Sept 15 

*RES 2: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 1: $1310.2 - Hourly support Sept 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $1306.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1304.6 - Low Sept 18 

*SUP 2: $1298.4 - Low Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $1294.4 - High Aug 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $1278.8 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA ($1317.55) has taken its toll with a close

below that sees bears firmly focused on $1294.4. Bears need a close below this

level to confirm focus on 55 & 100-DMAs ($1266.1-1278.8). Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $1320.0 to ease

bearish pressure and above $1342.1 to shift focus back to 2017 highs and the

bull channel top ($1358.3).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]