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US EURODLR OPTIONS

Midcurve Correction/Update

10 October 2017
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1862 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1.1862 Low Sept 20 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.1838 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $1.1836 55-DMA 
*RES 1: $1.1788 High Oct 4
*PRICE: $1.1770 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1756 Hourly resistance Oct 9 now support 
*SUP 2: $1.1739 Hourly support Oct 10 
*SUP 3: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.1661 Low Aug 17
*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on fresh lows for the week Friday with
the pair finding support and bouncing ahead of the daily bear channel base and
layers of support $1.1583-1.1661. Below $1.1583 is needed to see bears shift
focus to $1.1477. Bulls now need a close above $1.1788 to hint at a correction
back to $1.1836-62 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. Daily studies correcting from
O/S are the key concern for bears.
     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3224
*RES 4: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.3297 Hourly resistance Oct 2 
*RES 2: $1.3224 Low Oct 3 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.3183 High Oct 9
*PRICE: $1.3154 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3124 Hourly resistance Oct 9 now support 
*SUP 2: $1.3074 Hourly support Oct 9 
*SUP 3: $1.3042 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $1.3025 Low Oct 6
*COMMENTARY: The new week sees the 100-DMA supporting and bulls looking for a
close above $1.3224 to distance themselves from the 55-DMA ($1.3133) and shift
focus back to the 21-DMA ($1.3353). Daily studies correcting from O/S add
support to the case for a correction back to $1.3343-53. Initial support is
noted at $1.3124 with bears needing a close below to confirm a break below the
55-DMA, easing bullish pressure and returning focus to $1.2995-1.3018.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Finding Support On Dips
*RES 4: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 
*RES 3: Y113.44 High Oct 6 
*RES 2: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 
*RES 1: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: Y112.69 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.33 Low Oct 4 & Hourly support Oct 9 
*SUP 2: Y112.22 Low Sept 29 
*SUP 3: Y112.00 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y111.86 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through continued Friday with the break
of Y113.26 capped ahead of Y113.70. Bulls need a close above 113.70 to confirm
focus on July highs (Y114.49). The dip to Y112.33 Monday again saw support
emerge. Bears look for a close below Y112.22 to pressure 21 & 200-DMAs and below
Y111.48 to shift focus to 55 (Y110.64) & 100 (Y111.10) DMAs. Below the 55-DMA is
needed hint at a move to 2017 lows with below Y109.52 confirming.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.74 & Y133.49 Levels Key
*RES 4: Y134.25 High Sept 25
*RES 3: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25
*RES 2: Y133.11 High Sept 29
*RES 1: Y132.88 High Oct 3
*PRICE: Y132.62 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.26 Hourly support Oct 10 
*SUP 2: Y131.97 Hourly support Oct 9 
*SUP 3: Y131.74 Low Sept 26 
*SUP 4: Y130.95 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the key Y131.74 support bears have failed to
manage the close below needed to shift immediate focus to Y130.38-95 where the
55-DMA & 200-WMA are noted. Bears now need a close below Y132.26 to return
pressure to the key Y131.74 support. Bulls take comfort in support emerging on
dips back below Y132.00 but now need a close above Y133.49 to return focus to
Y134.25-41.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8864-0.8929 Support Now Key
*RES 4: Gbp0.9045 High Sept 14
*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 55-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8992 High Oct 6
*RES 1: Gbp0.8969 High Oct 6
*PRICE: Gbp0.8945 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8929 Hourly support Oct 9 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8906 Low Oct 9 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22 now support 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8864 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on the close above Gbp0.8920
with the Gbp0.8992-0.9045 resistance key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.9045 to
confirm a break of the 55-DMA, hint at a move back to Gbp0.8213-0.9306 and above
Gbp0.9107 to confirm. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a close
below the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8864) to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to
Gbp0.8717-57 where the 200-DMA & 55-WMA are found.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7798
*RES 4: $0.7888 - High Sept 27
*RES 3: $0.7840 - Hourly resistance Oct 5
*RES 2: $0.7798 - Hourly resistance Oct 6a
*RES 1: $0.7788 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7782 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6 
*SUP 2: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support 
*SUP 3: $0.7670 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $0.7635 - Low July 13
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-WMA ($0.7792) & 100-DMA took its toll with a
marginal close below Friday although follow through has been lacking. Daily
studies looking to correct from O/S and the Bollinger base ($0.7721) are key
concerns for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above
$0.7798 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to $0.7888-0.7925
with above the 55-DMA ($0.7925) to target $0.8036-0.8125.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 92.724 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 
*RES 3: 94.267 - High Oct 6 
*RES 2: 93.942 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 
*RES 1: 93.844 - High Oct 9
*PRICE: 93.531 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 93.413 - Hourly support Oct 4
*SUP 2: 93.259 - Low Oct 4
*SUP 3: 93.083 - Hourly support Sept 29
*SUP 4: 92.935 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of the
100-DMA is a concern for bulls given O/B daily studies and increases the risk of
a correction back to 92.724-935 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bears look for a
close below 93.579 to add weight to their case. Below 92.724 is now needed to
shift overall focus back to 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA
to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target 95.167-473.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key
*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 
*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 
*RES 2: 2.402 - High Oct 6 
*RES 1: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: 2.367 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.344 - Hourly support Oct 5 
*SUP 2: 2.319 - Low Oct 5 
*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 
*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a
*COMMENTARY: Dips attracted bids last week resulting in fresh 7mth highs
although the lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of 2.437 is less
than ideal. Bulls look for a close above 2.437 to return overall focus to 2017
highs. Resistance layers starting to build is a concern. Bears look for a close
below 2.319 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA (2.320) and below 2.284 to confirm
an easing of bullish pressure & shift focus to 2.208-2.245.
NYMEX WTI: (X17) Bulls Need Close Above $49.79 
*RES 4: $50.75 - 200-DMA 
*RES 3: $50.53 - Hourly support Oct 6a now resistance, 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $50.16 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 
*RES 1: $49.79 - High Oct 9
*PRICE: $49.64 @ 0330GMT
*SUP 1: $49.10 - Low Oct 6 
*SUP 2: $48.96 - High Sept 12 now support 
*SUP 3: $48.30 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $47.95 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to $51.22-77 last week bulls failed to
trouble this region with the sell-off seeing immediate focus on $47.39-49.10
this week. Overall bears need a close below $47.39 to confirm initial focus on
$45.52-46.14 with below $45.52 to target $42.80 June lows. Layers of resistance
are weighing with bulls now needing a close above $49.79 to gain breathing room
and above the 200-DMA to pressure $51.22-77 once more.
SPOT GOLD: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1296.4
*RES 4: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 
*RES 3: $1294.8 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $1293.3 - 55-DMA 
*RES 1: $1290.3 - High Sept 29
*PRICE: $1286.5 @ 0330GMT
*SUP 1: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 
*SUP 2: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6 
*SUP 3: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 
*SUP 4: $1260.5 - Low Oct 6
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2mth lows Friday was less than ideal
given daily studies looking to correct from O/S adding support to the case for a
correction. Bulls again look for a close above $1296.4 to shift initial focus
back to $1313.6-1320.0. Initial support is noted at $1277.6 with bears needing a
close below to retain focus on $1241.4-1253.7 where the bull channel base and
200-DMA are situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]