MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 3: $1.2019 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1.1891 Hourly support Sept 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1902 Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: $1.1874 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1831 Hourly resistance Oct 11 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1795 Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 3: $1.1756 Hourly resistance Oct 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1739 Hourly support Oct 10

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains bid with the break of the $1.1862 resistance and

close above 21 & 55-DMAs ($1.1834-42) hinting at a move back to $1.2019-92 and

above the bear channel top to confirm. Layers of support are building with bears

needing a close below $1.1831 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below

$1.1795 to shift focus back to the $1.1583-1.1661 region. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg higher.

     CABLE TECHS: Bullish Focus Shifts To 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 3: $1.3354 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3297 Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $1.3257 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3235 Hourly resistance Oct 11 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3203 Hourly support Oct 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3172 Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 4: $1.3139 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back to the 100-DMA ($1.3024) has

received support from correcting O/S daily studies with bulls now focused on

$1.3343-54 where the 21-DMA is located. Correcting O/S studies add support to

the bullish case. Layers of support continue to build with bears needing a close

below $1.3172 to gain breathing room and below $1.3124 to confirm a break below

the 55-DMA and return focus to $1.2995-1.3024.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y112.89

*RES 4: Y113.44 High Oct 6 

*RES 3: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 1: Y112.58 High Oct 11

*PRICE: Y112.35 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.20 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y111.82 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.48 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 4: Y111.11 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bounce from 21 & 200-DMAs Tuesday

with pressure having returned to these supports. Bears now focus on the 200-DMA

with a close below needed to pressure Y111.48 and below this level to shift

focus to 55 (Y110.68) & 100 (111.11) DMAs. Below the 55-DMA hints at a move back

to 2017 lows with below Y109.52 to confirm. Bulls look for a close above Y112.89

to ease pressure on key supports and initially target Y113.44-70.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Close Above Y133.49 Targets Y134.25-59

*RES 4: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015

*RES 3: Y134.41 2017 High Sept 22

*RES 2: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 1: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25 & Oct 12

*PRICE: Y133.38 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.23 Hourly support Oct 12 

*SUP 2: Y133.03 Hourly resistance Oct 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y132.78 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y132.44 Low Oct 11

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the key Y133.49 resistance with bulls

needing a close above to shift focus to Y134.25-59 where 2017 and monthly highs

are situated. Daily studies have room to move before O/B becomes an issue.

Initial support is noted at Y133.23 but bears look for a close below Y133.03 to

ease bullish pressure and hint at a move back to Y131.74 with below Y132.44 to

confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: EURO-STERLING TECHS: Close Below Gbp0.8948 To Ease

Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: Gbp0.9045 High Sept 14

*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 55-DMA

*RES 2: Gbp0.8992 High Oct 6

*RES 1: Gbp0.8972 Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: Gbp0.8957 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8948 Hourly resistance Oct 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8925 Low Oct 10 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8906 Low Oct 9 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on the close above Gbp0.8920 with

Gbp0.8992-0.9045 resistance key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.9045 to confirm a

break of the 55-DMA, hint at a move back to Gbp0.8213-0.9306 and above Gbp0.9107

to confirm. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8948 to gain breathing room

and below the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8860) to end bearish hopes and target Gbp0.8717-57.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7918 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7918 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7880 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7840 - Hourly resistance Oct 5

*PRICE: $0.7817 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 2: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6 

*SUP 3: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7672 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair is currently gaining traction above the 100-DMA ($0.7794)

with bulls needing a close above $0.7809 to add support to the case for a bounce

back to 21 & 55-DMAs ($0.7880-0.7918). Correcting O/S studies add support to the

case for a correction. Layers of support are building with bears now needing a

close below $0.7765 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $0.7712 to focus

on the 200-DMA ($0.7674).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 92.724 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 93.623 - Hourly support Oct 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: 93.472 - Hourly resistance Oct 10a 

*RES 2: 93.369 - High Oct 11 

*RES 1: 93.121 - Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: 92.841 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support

*SUP 2: 92.524 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*SUP 4: 91.526 - Low Sept 20

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of the

100-DMA has left the index looking heavy and pressuring 92.724 as it flirts with

21 (92.908) & 55 (92.900) DMAs. Below 92.724 remains needed to confirm breaks of

DMAs and to shift overall focus to 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are

accumulating with bulls needing a close above 93.369 to gain breathing room and

above 94.476 to shift focus to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 3: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: 2.341 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.330 - Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 2: 2.319 - Low Oct 5 & 10, 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a

*COMMENTARY: Dips attracted bids last week resulting in fresh 7mth highs

although the lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of 2.437 was

less than ideal. Bulls look for a close above 2.372 to gain breathing room and

above 2.437 to return overall focus to 2017 highs. Bears still need a close

below 2.319 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.284 to shift focus to

2.208-2.245 where 55 (2.232) & 100 (2.236) DMAs are located.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Dominate While 200-DMA Supports 

*RES 4: $53.11 - Monthly High Sept 28 

*RES 3: $52.62 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $52.08 - High Sept 29 

*RES 1: $51.69 - High Oct 11

*PRICE: $51.32 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $50.87 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $50.13 - High Oct 9 now support 

*SUP 3: $49.74 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $49.44 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading saw Z17 recover from below the 55-DMA to pressure

$52.08. Bulls continue to look for a close above $52.08 to return immediate

focus to $53.11 and overall focus to $53.73-54.35 where the bull channel top is

located. Layers of support are building and correcting O/S studies supporting.

Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below

$49.44 to target $48.05-64 where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are found.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1296.4

*RES 4: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 3: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 

*RES 2: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 

*RES 1: $1294.5 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1292.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1284.5 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 2: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: Having previously been capped on approach to the 21 & 55-DMAs and

$1296.4 bulls take comfort in pressure returning to this region. Bulls need a

close above $1296.4 to shift initial focus back to $1313.6-1320.0. Initial

support is noted at $1284.5 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing

room and below $1277.6 to return focus to $1242.5-1254.9 where the bull channel

base and 200-DMA are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]