MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.1894 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: $1.1880 High Oct 12 

*RES 1: $1.1853 Hourly resistance Oct 12

*PRICE: $1.1847 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1825 Hourly support Oct 12 

*SUP 2: $1.1795 Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 3: $1.1756 Hourly resistance Oct 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1739 Hourly support Oct 10

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $1.1862 resistance has so far lacked follow

through with the pair capped ahead of the daily bear channel top Thursday. The

$1.1795 support remains key today. Bears continue to look for a close below

$1.1795 to shift focus back to the $1.1583-1.1661 region. While $1.1795 supports

bulls look for a close above the channel top to add support to the case for a

test of $1.2033-92.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Focused On 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 3: $1.3349 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3297 Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $1.3275 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3240 Hourly support Oct 12 

*SUP 2: $1.3179 Hourly resistance Oct 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3121 Low Oct 12 

*SUP 4: $1.3074 Hourly support Oct 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls remain focused on the 21-DMA after the dip below the 55-DMA

($1.3142) was aggressively reversed for a relatively bullish close. Bulls need a

close above the 21-MA to end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to

$1.3461-1.3514 and overall focus to $1.36561.3702 where 2017 highs and the bull

channel top are situated. Bears now need a close below $1.3240 to gain breathing

room and below $1.3121 to focus on $1.2995-1.3029.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y112.89

*RES 4: Y113.44 High Oct 6 

*RES 3: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 1: Y112.58 High Oct 11

*PRICE: Y112.18 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.99 Low Oct 10 

*SUP 2: Y111.80 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.48 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 4: Y111.12 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bounce from 21 & 200-DMAs Tuesday

with focus having returned to these supports. Bears remain focused on the

200-DMA with a close below needed to pressure Y111.48 and below this level to

shift focus to 55 (Y110.70) & 100 (111.12) DMAs. Below the 55-DMA hints at a

move back to 2017 lows with below Y109.52 to confirm. Bulls look for a close

above Y112.89 to ease pressure on key supports and initially target Y113.44-70.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.49 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 3: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25 & High Oct 12

*RES 2: Y133.27 Hourly resistance Oct 12

*RES 1: Y132.95 Hourly resistance Oct 13

*PRICE: Y132.89 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.72 Hourly support Oct 13 

*SUP 2: Y132.61 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y132.44 Low Oct 11 

*SUP 4: Y132.23 Low Oct 10

*COMMENTARY: Y133.49 confirmed significance having capped Thursday with the

sell-off seeing bears looking for a close below Y132.44 to confirm a return in

immediate focus to Y131.74. Bears look for a close below this level to pressure

the 55-DMA (Y131.12). Bulls now need a close above Y132.95 to gain breathing

room and above Y133.49 to shift focus to Y134.25-59 where 2017 and monthly highs

are situated. Narrowing Bollinger bands suggest a breakout in the near future.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rejected Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.9032 High Oct 12

*RES 3: Gbp0.9012 55-DMA

*RES 2: Gbp0.8987 Hourly support Oct 12 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.8948 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8924 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8906 Low Oct 9 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22 now support

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8860 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8801 Low Oct 2

*COMMENTARY: The excursion into the Gbp0.8992-0.9045 resistance region lacked

follow through with the pair rejected ahead of the key Gbp0.9048 resistance. The

sell-off leaves the pair looking heavy and focus back on layers of support

Gbp0.8860-0.8906. Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to end

bullish hopes and target Gbp0.8717-57. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8948 to

gain breathing room and above Gbp0.8987 to return focus to Gbp0.9012-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7907 - Hourly support Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7915 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7871 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7843 - Hourly resistance Oct 13

*PRICE: $0.7829 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7798 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 3: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair is currently gaining traction above the 100-DMA ($0.7798)

with the close above $0.7809 adding support to the case for a bounce back to 21

& 55-DMAs ($0.7871-0.7915). Correcting O/S studies add support to the case for a

correction. Layers of support are building with bears now needing a close below

the 100-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7712 to focus on the 200-DMA

($0.7677).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.724 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 93.623 - Hourly support Oct 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: 93.472 - Hourly resistance Oct 10a 

*RES 2: 93.369 - High Oct 11 

*RES 1: 93.121 - Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: 92.975 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.953 - Hourly resistance Oct 12 now support

*SUP 2: 92.797 - Low Oct 12

*SUP 3: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support

*SUP 4: 92.586 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of the 100-DMA has now resulted in dips

below the 21 (92.956) & 55 (92.899) DMAs only to find support ahead of the key

92.724 level. Below 92.724 remains needed to confirm breaks of DMAs and to shift

overall focus to 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls

needing a close above 93.369 to gain breathing room and above 94.476 to shift

focus to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 3: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: 2.328 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.317 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 3: 2.292 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on last week's 7mth highs has seen

pressure return to the 200-DMA with the 2.284-317 seen as key. Bears need a

close below 2.284 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and to shift immediate

focus to 2.208-2.245 where 55 (2.232) & 100 (2.237) DMAs are located. Resistance

layers are building once more with bulls now needing a close above 2.372 to ease

pressure on supports and above 2.437 to return overall focus to 2017 highs.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below $50.48 

*RES 4: $52.61 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $52.08 - High Sept 29 

*RES 2: $51.69 - High Oct 11 

*RES 1: $51.48 - Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: $51.18 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $50.88 - Hourly support Oct 12 

*SUP 2: $50.48 - Low Oct 12 

*SUP 3: $50.13 - High Oct 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $49.77 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading saw Z17 recover from below the 55-DMA to pressure

$52.08. Bulls continue to look for a close above $52.08 to return immediate

focus to $53.11 and overall focus to $53.73-54.42 where the bull channel top is

located. Layers of support are building and correcting O/S studies supporting.

Bears now need a close below $50.48 to ease bullish pressure and below $49.44 to

target $48.05-71 where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are found.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1277.6-1284.5 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 3: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 2: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 

*RES 1: $1297.3 - High Oct 12

*PRICE: $1296.1 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $1289.6 - Low Oct 12 

*SUP 2: $1284.5 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 3: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: The break of $1296.4 has so far lacked follow through which is less

than ideal for bulls who are now targeting $1313.6-1320.0. Support layers are

building with bears now needing a close below $1284.5 to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and below $1277.6 to shift focus back to $1243.1-1260.5 where

the 200-DMA and bull channel base are situated. Bulls now need a close above

$1297.3 to add support to their case.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]