MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

17 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: $1.1886 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1.1880 High Oct 12 

*RES 2: $1.1849 Hourly resistance Oct 13 

*RES 1: $1.1826 Hourly resistance Oct 13

*PRICE: $1.1777 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1756 Hourly resistance Oct 9 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1739 Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1669 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $1.1862 resistance lacked follow through with the

pair capped around the daily bear channel top Thursday. Pressure on $1.1795 has

resulted in a break with bears again focused on a move back to the

$1.1583-1.1669 region where the channel base and 100-DMA are noted. Layers of

resistance remain with bulls needing a close above $$1.1826 to gain breathing

room and above $1.1880 to shift focus higher.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3226

*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 3: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3322 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3311 High Oct 16

*PRICE: $1.3257 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3226 High Oct 10 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3179 Hourly resistance Oct 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3144 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3121 Low Oct 12

*COMMENTARY: The pair has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA on attempts to

break higher since Friday which is less than ideal for bulls who still need a

close above $1.3343 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially target

$1.3461. Bears now look for a close below $1.3226 initial support to shift

immediate focus back to $1.3071-1.3144 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Supported Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 2: Y112.58 High Oct 11 

*RES 1: Y112.35 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y112.06 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.65 Low Oct 17 

*SUP 2: Y111.48 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 3: Y111.14 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y110.76 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 200-DMA (Y111.76) are finding support with the

recovery from the day's lows seeing a bounce back to the 21-DMA. Bulls look for

a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Y112.89 to shift

immediate focus back to Y113.44-70. The Y111.48 support remains key. Bears look

for a close below to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and focus on 55 (Y110.76) &

100 (111.14) DMAs. Below the 55-DMA hints at a move back to 2017 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y132.44

*RES 4: Y133.27 Hourly resistance Oct 12

*RES 3: Y132.95 Hourly resistance Oct 13

*RES 2: Y132.72 Hourly support Oct 13

*RES 1: Y132.44 Hourly support Oct 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.01 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.65 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 2: Y131.46 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y131.17 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from last week's Y133.49 topside failure has resulted

in a break of Y131.74 but follow through has so far been lacking. Focus has

shifted to the Y130.59-131.17 region where the 55-DMA is noted with a close

below Y130.59 to shift pressure to the 100-DMA (Y129.33). Layers of resistance

remain with bulls needing a close above Y132.44 to gain breathing room and above

Y133.49 to shift focus to Y134.25-59 where 2017 and monthly highs are situated. 

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8856 Support Now Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8987 Hourly support Oct 12 now resistance

*RES 3: Gbp0.8948 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Gbp0.8931 Hourly resistance Oct 13a

*RES 1: Gbp0.8905 Hourly resistance Oct 16

*PRICE: Gbp0.8884 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8856 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8801 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8746 Monthly Low Sept 27 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8743 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection above the 55-DMA last week left the pair looking and

flirting with the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8865). Bears need a close below Gbp0.8856 to end

bullish hopes and target Gbp0.8727-43. Resistance layers remain and weigh. The

Gbp0.8905-48 resistance region is now key. Bulls look for a close above

Gbp0.8948 to return focus to Gbp0.8987-0.9048 where the 55-DMA is located.

Correcting O/B daily studies are also seen weighing at present.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Capped On Approach To 55-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7914 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7907 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7876 - Hourly resistance Oct 15

*RES 1: $0.7862 - Hourly resistance Oct 16

*PRICE: $0.7840 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7807 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 3: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: With bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish

hopes and initially target $0.7986, bears take comfort in the pair remaining

capped ahead of the 55-DMA to start the new week and looking a little heavy.

Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA to shift focus back to

$0.7682-0.7733. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls need

a close above $0.7876 to gain breathing room.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.724 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 93.942 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 93.844 - High Oct 9 

*RES 2: 93.623 - Hourly support Oct 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: 93.472 - Hourly resistance Oct 10a

*PRICE: 93.343 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.251 - Hourly support Oct 16

*SUP 2: 93.076 - Low Oct 16

*SUP 3: 92.924 - Hourly support Oct 13

*SUP 4: 92.881 - Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of the 100-DMA resulted in dips below the

21 (93.092) & 55 (92.914) DMAs only to find support ahead of the key 92.724

level. Below 92.724 remains needed to confirm breaks of DMAs and to shift

overall focus to 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls

needing a close above 93.369 to gain breathing room and above 94.476 to shift

focus to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus on 2.208-2.245

*RES 4: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 3: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11 

*RES 2: 2.334 - High Oct 13 

*RES 1: 2.314 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: 2.303 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 2: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.237 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.231 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with a break and close below

the 200 & 21 (2.300) DMAs and the key 2.284 support Friday that sees bears

initially focused on 2.208-2.245 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Correcting O/B

studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls continue to look for a close above

the 200-DMA to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 2.402 to return initial

focus to 2.437.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below $51.62 

*RES 4: $53.11 - Monthly High Sept 28 

*RES 3: $52.87 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $52.65 - High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $52.25 - Hourly resistance Oct 16

*PRICE: $52.07 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $51.89 - Hourly support Oct 16 

*SUP 2: $51.62 - Hourly support Oct 13 

*SUP 3: $51.27 - Hourly support Oct 13a 

*SUP 4: $50.79 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A volatile week resulted in a bullish close with the break of

$52.08 adding support to the bullish case for a test of the $53.11-54.49 region

where monthly highs and the bull channel top are located. Daily studies have

room to move before O/B is an issue. Layers of support remain with bears needing

a close below $51.62 to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate focus back to

$49.44-84 where the 55-DMA is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1277.6-1289.6 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 

*RES 3: $1313.0 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $1298.3 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1293.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1289.6 - Low Oct 12 

*SUP 2: $1288.5 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1284.5 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 4: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls are struggling to distance themselves from 21 & 55 ($1296.0)

DMAs. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below

$1277.6 to shift focus back to $1244.2-1260.5 where the 200-DMA ($1256.7) and

bull channel base are situated. Bulls now need a close above $1306.0 to

reconfirm focus on $1313.6-1320.0. A close above $1320.0 is needed to shift

focus to $1357.5 Sept highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]