MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: $1.1880 High Oct 12 

*RES 3: $1.1858 High Oct 19 

*RES 2: $1.1826 Hourly resistance Oct 20 

*RES 1: $1.1790 Hourly resistance Oct 20a

*PRICE: $1.1769 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1731 Low Oct 18 

*SUP 2: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1669 Low Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $1.1661 Low Aug 17

*COMMENTARY: Rallies the past two weeks have remained capped ahead of the daily

bear channel top with the pair ending the week on a heavy note and immediate

focus on $1.1731 to start the new week. Bears need a close below $1.1731 to

reconfirm focus on $1.1583-1.1669. Resistance layers building are weighing with

layers of resistance $1.1826-80 key. Bulls continue to look for a close above

$1.1880 to shift focus back to $1.2033.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3255 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3228 High Oct 19 

*RES 1: $1.3209 Hourly resistance Oct 19

*PRICE: $1.3199 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3161 Hourly support Oct 20 

*SUP 2: $1.3088 Low Oct 20 

*SUP 3: $1.3048 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on dips below the 55-DMA ($1.3148) last

week with the pair bouncing back towards layers of resistance. Bulls now need a

close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $1.3343 to end bearish

hopes and shift focus to $1.3461-1.3595. Bears now look for a close below

$1.3161 to gain breathing room and below $1.2995 to shift focus to the 200-DMA

($1.2822).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On Y114.49

*RES 4: Y117.53 High Jan 9 

*RES 3: Y115.62 High Jan 19 

*RES 2: Y115.34 Falling LT weekly TL 

*RES 1: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11

*PRICE: Y113.87 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.59 High Oct 20 now support 

*SUP 2: Y113.26 Hourly support Oct 20 

*SUP 3: Y113.06 Hourly support Oct 20a 

*SUP 4: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support on dips below the 21-DMA (Y112.58) last week resulted in a

bullish close Friday and a gapping move higher to start the new week that sees

immediate focus on Y114.49 July highs. Bulls now look for a close above Y114.49

to pressure the Y115.34-115.62 region where further monthly highs are noted.

Bears now look for a close below Y113.06 to ease immediate bullish pressure and

below Y112.30 to shift focus back to Y110.96-111.73 where key DMAs are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.59 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 3: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015

*RES 2: Y134.41 2017 High Sept 22

*RES 1: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*PRICE: Y133.92 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.83 Hourly support Oct 23 

*SUP 2: Y133.44 Hourly resistance Oct 20 now support a 

*SUP 3: Y132.91 Hourly support Oct 19 

*SUP 4: Y132.44 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from last week's Y133.49 topside failure resulted in a

break of Y131.74 but follow through was lacking. The rally Wednesday managed a

close above the 21-DMA with gains continuing and focus now having shifted to

Y134.25-59 where 2017 and monthly highs are situated. Layers of support are

building with bears needing a close below Y133.44 to gain breathing room and

below Y132.91 to hint at a deeper sell-off targeting Y131.65.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rejected Above 55-DMA Again

*RES 4: Gbp0.9033 High Oct 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9005 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8967 Hourly support Oct 19a now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8940 Hourly resistance Oct 20

*PRICE: Gbp0.8918 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8888 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8856 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8801 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8746 Monthly Low Sept 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to gain traction above the 55-DMA with the sell-off

Friday leaving the pair looking heavy and focus back on Gbp0.8854-88 where the

bull channel base and 21-DMA are situated. Bears now need a close below

Gbp0.8856 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8726-47 where monthly lows, the 55-WMA &

200-DMA are noted. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8967 to ears bearish pressure

and above Gbp0.9048 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to Gbp0.9107-0.9202.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus On $0.7690-0.7733 This Week

*RES 4: $0.7905 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7884 - High Oct 19

*RES 2: $0.7856 - Hourly resistance Oct 20a

*RES 1: $0.7829 - Hourly resistance Oct 20

*PRICE: $0.7824 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7800 - Hourly support Oct 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 3: $0.7748 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Bears gain confidence as the pair trades below 21 ($0.7834) & 100

($0.7823) DMAs to start the new week. Having remained capped ahead of the 55-DMA

bears now focus on the $0.7690-0.7733 region where the 200-DMA and Oct lows are

noted. Below the 200-DMA hints at a move initially targeting $0.7513. Layers of

resistance are building and weighing with bulls needing a close above the 55-DMA

to end bearish hopes and shift initial focus back to $0.7986.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.476 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.267 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 94.127 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.942 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance

*PRICE: 93.771 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.517 - Hourly support Oct 20

*SUP 2: 93.347 - Hourly support Oct 20A

*SUP 3: 93.055 - Low Oct 19

*SUP 4: 92.941 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

55-DMA last week and the index popping above last week's high. The 94.127-476

resistance region is key. Bulls need a close above 94.476 to confirm a break of

the 100-DMA (94.127) and to shift immediate focus to 95.167-464. Layers of

support are again building. Bears need a close below 93.517 to ease bullish

pressure and below 92.724 to shift focus lower.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2.402-437

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.404 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.402 - High Oct 6

*PRICE: 2.383 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.350 - Hourly support Oct 20 

*SUP 2: 2.332 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 4: 2.278 - Low Oct 16

*COMMENTARY: The 2.278 support confirmed significance with the yield supported

on dips back towards this level retaining bullish control. Focus remains on the

2.402-437 resistance region this week with bulls needing a close above to shift

initial focus to 2.544-558. The 2.332-350 support region is key today with bears

needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and see pressure back on the key

2.278 support below which targets 2.208-245.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Supported Ahead Of 200-DMA 

*RES 4: $53.07 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $52.65 - High Oct 16 

*RES 2: $52.39 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 1: $52.24 - Hourly resistance Oct 23

*PRICE: $52.08 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $51.87 - Hourly support Oct 20 

*SUP 2: $51.48 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $51.24 - Hourly resistance Oct 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $50.87 - Low Oct 20

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of the $52.65-53.11 region is less than

ideal for bulls who need a close above to shift focus to $53.73-55.03 where the

bull channel top ($54.84) is located. Bulls take comfort on the bounce from

ahead of the 200-DMA ($50.69). Layers of support remain $48.65-50.87. Bears need

a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA ($50.00)

to pressure $48.65-49.44.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Flirting With 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1298.3 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: $1297.3 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 1: $1285.9 - Hourly resistance Oct 20

*PRICE: $1276.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1275.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6 

*SUP 3: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1260.6 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 100-DMA has so far failed to produce the close

below needed to see bears confirm focus on tests of $1243.4-1260.1 where the

daily bull channel base ($1246.4) and 200-DMA ($1258.3) are noted. Bulls now

look for a close above $1291.1 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above

$1306.0 to pressure $1313.6-1320.0, Daily studies remain well placed for further

losses.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]