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BLOCK, 10Y Ultra-Bond

1 November 2017
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above 100-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: $1.1785 Hourly resistance Oct 26 
*RES 3: $1.1725 Low Oct 23 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.1690 100-DMA 
*RES 1: $1.1662 High Oct 31
*PRICE: $1.1630 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1575 Low Oct 27 
*SUP 2: $1.1514 Daily bear channel base 
*SUP 3: $1.1478 Low July 20 
*SUP 4: $1.1369 High July 5 now support
*COMMENTARY: Following the topside failure around the 55-DMA ($1.1828) last week
the pair headed lower with bears focused on $1.1478-1.1575 where the bear
channel base is noted. The weekly close below the 200-WMA ($1.1671) added weight
to the bearish case. The Bollinger base ($1.1604) remains the key concern and
currently limits follow through. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to ease
bearish pressure and above $1.1725 to target the 55-DMA.
     CABLE TECHS: Focus Returns To $1.3340
*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 
*RES 3: $1.3340 Low Sept 28 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.3316 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: $1.3293 Hourly resistance Nov 1
*PRICE: $1.3272 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3258 Hourly resistance Oct 31 now support 
*SUP 2: $1.3225 Hourly resistance Oct 31a now support 
*SUP 3: $1.3180 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.3152 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Cable currently trades sideways in a broad $1.3024-1.3340 range.
Having failed to trouble the $1.2995-1.3024 support and bouncing from ahead of
the 100-DMA ($1.3070) resulted in a move back to $1.3279 with focus now on
$1.3343. Bulls look for a close above $1.3340 to end bearish hopes and initially
target $1.3461-1.3514. Below the 55-DMA is needed to shift focus back to
$1.2995-1.3076.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Confirms Significance
*RES 4: Y115.62 High Jan 19 
*RES 3: Y115.24 Falling LT weekly TL 
*RES 2: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 
*RES 1: Y114.00 Hourly resistance Oct 28
*PRICE: Y113.86 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.52 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 2: Y113.22 Hourly support Oct 31 
*SUP 3: Y112.98 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support
*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy and pressuring the 21-DMA bears failed to
produce the close below to confirm focus on Y111.32-112.30. The bounce eases
bearish pressure with bulls needing a close above Y114.00 to return immediate
focus to the key Y114.49 level. The 21-DMA is now key support with bears needing
a close below to shift focus back to Y111.37-112.30 where key DMAs are situated.
The Bollinger band top is noted at (Y114.26) and is the key concern.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.74-133.50 Resistance Key
*RES 4: Y133.50 Hourly support Oct 24
*RES 3: Y133.12 Hourly resistance Oct 26
*RES 2: Y132.74 21-DMA
*RES 1: Y132.60 Hourly resistance Nov 1
*PRICE: Y132.43 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.23 Hourly support Oct 31 
*SUP 2: Y131.77 Hourly support Oct 31a 
*SUP 3: Y131.45 Low Oct 30 
*SUP 4: Y131.37 Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to gain traction below the 55-DMA (Y131.80) with
the bounce seeing focus return to Y132.74-133.50 where the 21-DMA is located.
Bulls continue to look for a close above Y133.50 to return focus to the key
Y134.59 resistance. Bears now need a close below Y132.23 to ease pressure on the
21-DMA and below Y131.45 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift immediate
focus to Y130.24-59 and overall focus to Y127.50.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8718 Support Key
*RES 4: Gbp0.8901 High Oct 27, 21-DMA 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8848 High Oct 30 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8826 High Oct 31 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8796 Hourly resistance Oct 31
*PRICE: Gbp0.8764 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8755 200-DMA 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8722 55-WMA 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8718 Low June 16 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8649 Monthly Low June 8
*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy with Friday's bounce remaining capped ahead
of the 21-DMA. Bears remain focused on Gbp0.8718-55 where Sept lows, the 200-DMA
and 55-WMA are situated. The weekly bull channel base comes in around Gbp0.8830
this week with bears needing a weekly close below to confirm a break and add
weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8848 to shift focus
back to Gbp0.8901-74.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7720-0.7807 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25
*RES 3: $0.7720 - Low Oct 11 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7694 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7670 - Hourly resistance Oct 31
*PRICE: $0.7663 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7639 - Low Oct 31 
*SUP 2: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27 
*SUP 3: $0.7556 - Daily Bear channel base 
*SUP 4: $0.7564 - Low June 26
*COMMENTARY: Bears remain in control with the close below the 200-DMA seeing
focus shift to $0.7513-56 where the daily bear channel base is noted. The 55-WMA
comes in at $0.7631 and may slow the move. Overall bears look for a close below
$0.7312 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above
$0.7720 to ease bearish pressure and above the bull channel top ($0.7797) to
pressure the $0.7833-0.7909 region where key DMAs are situated.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 94.427 To Pressure 100-DMA
*RES 4: 95.374 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 95.167 - High July 20 
*RES 2: 94.927 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 
*RES 1: 94.703 - High Oct 31
*PRICE: 94.703 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 94.437 - Low Oct 30
*SUP 2: 93.951 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 93.767 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 93.477 - Low Oct 26
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on last week's test of the bull
channel top with the index looking a little heavy having closed back below
94.717. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA to shift focus to
92.724-93.714. Overall below 92.724 is needed to target 2017 lows. Bulls now
look for a close above 94.703 to ease pressure on supports and above 94.927 to
reconfirm focus on 95.167-464.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.352 & 2.419 Levels Key
*RES 4: 2.477 - High Oct 25 
*RES 3: 2.445 - Hourly support Oct 26 now resistance 
*RES 2: 2.434 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 
*RES 1: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.388 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.385 - High Oct 31 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.360 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: 2.352 - High Oct 18 now support 
*SUP 4: 2.314 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Failure to break below 2.352 with support emerging around the
21-DMA sees bulls gain breathing room and looking for a close above 2.419 to
confirm an easing of bearish pressure, return initial focus to 2.477 and overall
focus to 2.544-580 where the bull channel top is found. Bears look for a close
below 2.352 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to 2.245-2.278
where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. The 200-DMA may support along the way.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Below $53.93 To Ease Bullish Pressure 
*RES 4: $55.89 - High Feb 21 
*RES 3: $55.34 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: $55.02 - Monthly Apr 12 
*RES 1: $54.85 - High Oct 31
*PRICE: $54.67 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $54.55 - Hourly support Nov 1 
*SUP 2: $53.93 - Low Oct 31 
*SUP 3: $53.63 - Hourly support Oct 27 
*SUP 4: $53.14 - Hourly support Oct 27a
*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the $53.11 resistance last week provided
bulls hope and resulted in a break and aggressive rally that reconfirms the
bullish bias with focus on $55.02-34 where the daily bull channel top and Apr
highs are noted. Layers of support are following the contract higher. Bears now
need a close below $53.93 to ease bullish pressure and below $52.86 to shift
initial focus back to the 21-DMA ($52.03).
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1296.7 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 
*RES 2: $1283.7 - High Oct 24 
*RES 1: $1280.9 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1269.5 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1267.7 - Low Oct 31 
*SUP 2: $1261.6 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: $1260.6 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1250.3 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA was less than ideal for bears who
are focused on $1243.8-1260.6 where the 200-DMA and channel base are situated.
Bulls continue to look for a close above $1283.7 to confirm a break of the
21-DMA, easing bearish pressure & initially correcting back to
$1291.1-1296.97where the 55-DMA is found. Bears now look for a close below the
200-DMA to add weight to their case.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]