MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead of 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1826 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.1785 Hourly resistance Oct 26 

*RES 2: $1.1725 Low Oct 23 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1695 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1658 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1575 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 Daily bear channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.1478 Low July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1369 High July 5 now support

*COMMENTARY: Following the topside failure around the 55-DMA ($1.1828) last week

the pair headed lower with bears focused on $1.1478-1.1575 where the bear

channel base is noted. The Bollinger base ($1.1591) remains the key concern and

currently limits follow through. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above $1.1725 to target the 55-DMA. Bears need a close

below $1.1575 to add weight to their case.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3340 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 3: $1.3340 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3320 High Nov 1 

*RES 1: $1.3317 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1.3272 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3240 Low Nov 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3225 Hourly resistance Oct 31a now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3180 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3152 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Cable currently trades sideways in a broad $1.3024-1.3340 range.

Having failed to trouble the $1.2995-1.3024 support and bouncing from ahead of

the 100-DMA ($1.3081) resulted in correction higher with focus now on $1.3340.

Bulls look for a close above $1.3340 to end bearish hopes and initially target

$1.3461-1.3514. Below the 55-DMA is needed to shift focus back to

$1.2995-1.3081.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y112.96 To End Bullish Hopes

*RES 4: Y115.62 High Jan 19 

*RES 3: Y115.24 Falling LT weekly TL 

*RES 2: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 1: Y114.26 Hourly resistance Nov 1

*PRICE: Y113.90 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.72 High Oct 31 now support 

*SUP 2: Y113.52 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y113.22 Hourly support Oct 31 

*SUP 4: Y113.04 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y114.49 is less than ideal given daily studies

lingering around modestly O/B and looking to correct. In saying that, bears need

a close below Y113.72 to gain breathing room and below Y112.96 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA and confirm focus on Y111.32-112.30. The Bollinger band top

is noted at (Y114.41) and is the key concern. Bulls need a close above Y114.49

to reconfirm a bullish bias and shift initial focus to Y115.24-62.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.95-133.50 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 3: Y133.50 Hourly support Oct 24

*RES 2: Y133.12 Hourly resistance Oct 26

*RES 1: Y132.95 Hourly resistance Oct 27

*PRICE: Y132.77 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.23 Hourly support Oct 31 

*SUP 2: Y131.77 Hourly support Oct 31a 

*SUP 3: Y131.45 Low Oct 30 

*SUP 4: Y131.37 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to gain traction below the 55-DMA (Y131.89) with the

bounce seeing focus return to Y132.95-133.50. Bulls need a close above Y133.50

to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (Y132.76) & return focus to the key Y134.59

resistance. Bears still need a close below Y132.23 to ease bullish pressure and

below Y131.45 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift immediate focus to

Y130.24-59 and overall focus to Y127.50. 

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Uncomfortable Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8896 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8848 High Oct 30 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8826 High Oct 31 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8796 Hourly resistance Oct 31

*PRICE: Gbp0.8777 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8755 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8733 Low Nov 1 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8721 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8718 Low June 16

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 200-DMA lacked follow through with the Gbp0.8718

support remaining key. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8718 to confirm a break of

the 55-DMA and shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8649. Bulls now look for a close

above Gbp0.8796 to ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.8848 to shift focus back

to Gbp0.8896-0.8901 where the 21-DMA is located. A weekly close below weekly

Bull channel base (Gbp0.8830) is needed to add weight to the bearish case.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above Channel Top Targets 55 & 100-DMAs

*RES 4: $0.7835 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7787 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: $0.7770 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*PRICE: $0.7720 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7689 - Hourly support Nov 2 

*SUP 2: $0.7639 - Low Oct 31 

*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27 

*SUP 4: $0.7564 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to manage the close below $0.7622 needed to add weight

to the case for a test of $0.7513-64 where the bear channel base ($0.7546) is

situated. Bulls take comfort in the pair trading above the 200-DMA ($0.7695)

with bears now needing a close below $0.7689 to ease renewed bullish pressure.

Bulls still need a close above the channel top to initially shift focus to

$0.7835-0.7909 where 100 & 55-DMAs are situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.267 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 95.436 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 1: 94.927 - Hourly resistance Oct 27

*PRICE: 94.545 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 94.267 - High Oct 6 now support

*SUP 2: 93.923 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.826 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.477 - Low Oct 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on last week's test of the bull

channel top but take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA on dips.

Bears now need a close below the 94.267 to initially pressure 100 & 21-DMAs and

below the 21-DMA to shift focus to 92.724-93.457. Overall below 92.724 is needed

to target 2017 lows. Bulls now look for a close 94.927 to reconfirm focus on

95.167-464 where the bull channel top is situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.349 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.434 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.401 - High Nov 1 

*RES 1: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.361 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.349 - Low Nov 1 

*SUP 2: 2.314 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: 2.262 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-DMA (2.361) and the 2.352 support have so far

lacked follow through. Resistance layers accumulating adds weight to the bearish

case with a close below 2.349 now needed to shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA

and overall focus back to 2.245-2.278 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. The 2.419

resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to return initial focus

to 2.477 and overall focus to 2.544-580.

NYMEX WTI: (Z17) $53.63-89 Support Now Key 

*RES 4: $55.89 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: $55.41 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $55.22 - High Nov 1 

*RES 1: $54.69 - Hourly resistance Nov 1

*PRICE: $54.29 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $53.89 - Low Nov 1 

*SUP 2: $53.63 - Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 3: $53.14 - Hourly support Oct 27a 

*SUP 4: $52.86 - High Oct 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of the daily bull channel top is less than

ideal for bulls given daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the

Bollinger top ($54.87) limiting follow through. The marginal break of $53.93 has

lacked follow through with bears now needing a close below $53.63 to shift

initial focus back to $52.86. Bulls now need a close above $54.69 to gain

breathing room and setup for another test of the channel top.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Flirting With 21-DMA, $1283.7 Remains Key

*RES 4: $1296.6 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 2: $1283.7 - High Oct 24 

*RES 1: $1281.4 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1279.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1272.5 - Hourly support Nov 1 

*SUP 2: $1267.7 - Low Oct 31 & Nov 1 

*SUP 3: $1262.4 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1261.1 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA continues and sees pressure back on

the 21-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1283.7 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA, easing bearish pressure & initially correcting back to

$1291.1-1296.8 where the 55-DMA is found. Bears still need a close below the

200-DMA to add weight to their case for the move currently targeting

$1243.8-1250.9 where the channel base is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]