MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Risking Correction To $1.1690-1.1732

*RES 4: $1.1732 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1.1725 Low Oct 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1722 100-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.1690 High Nov 3

*PRICE: $1.1646 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1638 Hourly support Nov 9 & 10 

*SUP 2: $1.1622 Hourly support Nov 9 

*SUP 3: $1.1579 Low Nov 8 

*SUP 4: $1.1554 Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the week's low so far saw a close above $1.1624,

easing immediate bearish pressure and increasing the risk of a correction back

to layers of resistance $1.1690-1.1732 where the bear channel top is located.

Bulls continue to look for a close above the channel top to shift focus to

$1.1810-80 where the 55-DMA is situated. Bears now need a close back below

$1.1622 to return immediate pressure to $1.1554.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3320 High Nov 1 

*RES 2: $1.3215 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3179 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3145 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3127 Hourly support Nov 9 

*SUP 2: $1.3085 Low Nov 8 

*SUP 3: $1.3061 Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*SUP 4: $1.3024 Monthly Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains confined to a broad $1.3024-1.3343 range. Despite

focus shifting lower bears have failed to trouble the key $1.2995 support. Bears

continue to look for a close below the $1.2995 support to confirm a break lower,

initially targeting the 200-DMA ($1.2869) with overall focus shifting to $1.2587

June lows. Above the 55-DMA remains needed to ease bearish pressure and return

focus to $1.3320-43.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus Back On Y112.95

*RES 4: Y114.72 Hourly resistance Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y114.42 Hourly resistance Nov 6a 

*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 1: Y113.69 Hourly resistance Nov 9

*PRICE: Y113.43 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.95 Low Oct 31 

*SUP 2: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 3: Y112.30 Low Oct 19 

*SUP 4: Y112.01 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Having supported bears take comfort in the close below the 21-DMA

(Y113.39) that sees pressure on Y112.95. Bears need a close below Y112.95 to

gain traction below the 21-DMA and shift focus to Y111.46-112.30 where key DMAs

are situated. Bulls now look for a close above Y114.07 to ease bearish pressure

and return focus to Y114.72 above which is needed to reconfirm a bullish bias

with above Y115.62 to shift focus to tests of 2017 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.61 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y133.50 Hourly support Oct 24

*RES 3: Y133.14 High Nov 2

*RES 2: Y132.61 Hourly support Nov 6 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.41 High Nov 7

*PRICE: Y132.13 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.40 Low Nov 8 

*SUP 2: Y130.91 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y130.59 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Y129.34 Low Sept 6

*COMMENTARY: Bears are struggling to gain traction below the 55-DMA (Y132.22).

Layers of resistance remain. Bulls still need a close above Y132.61 to return

pressure to Y133.14 and above this level to confirm an easing of bearish

pressure and to shift immediate focus to Y134.50-59. A close above Y134.59

potentially targets Y139.00-141.00. Bears now need a close below Y131.40 to add

weight to their case and below Y130.59 to target Y127.50.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8718 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8933 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8913 Hourly resistance Now 3 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8893 Hourly resistance Nov 3a 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8875 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8859 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8845 Hourly support Nov 9 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8824 Low Nov 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8791 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8766 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The Gbp0.8718 support remains key with bears needing a close below

to confirm breaks of the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8766) & 55-WMA (Gbp0.8722 and shift focus

to tests of the bear channel base (Gbp0.8476). Bulls now look for a close above

the 21-DMA to shift focus to layers of resistance with bulls then needing a

close above Gbp0.8974 to shift focus to Gbp0.9022/48. Bears now need a close

below Gbp0.8824 to gain breathing room.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7622 Support Key, 200-DMA Still Capping

*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*RES 2: $0.7727 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $0.7697 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7687 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7577 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7564 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: $0.7485 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $0.7622 support remains a concern for bears

given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. Bears continue to look for a

close below $0.7622 to add weight to the case for a test of $0.7485-0.7564 where

the channel base is located. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls

still need a close above $0.7768 to confirm breaks of DMAs and the channel top,

shifting focus to $0.7839-0.7909 where 100 & 55-DMAs are situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pressure Back On Key Supports

*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.965 - Hourly resistance Nov 8 

*RES 2: 94.855 - Hourly resistance Nov 9a 

*RES 1: 94.556 - Hourly resistance Nov 9

*PRICE: 94.500 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 94.408 - Low Nov 3

*SUP 2: 94.267 - High Oct 6 now support

*SUP 3: 94.200 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.761 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The persistent lack of topside follow through has taken its toll

with a sell-off and bearish close that sees pressure back on support layers.

Bears need a close below 94.267 to pressure the channel base, 100 & 21-DMAs and

below the channel base to pressure 92.724-93.477. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above 94.965 to return

focus to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.304 & 2.365 Levels Key

*RES 4: 2.401 - High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.365 - Hourly resistance Nov 2 

*RES 1: 2.345 - High Nov 9

*PRICE: 2.342 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.304 - Low Nov 8 

*SUP 2: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: 2.273 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.267 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the marginal close below the 200-DMA

(2.311) with bulls taking comfort in Wednesday's recovery. Layers of resistance

remain. Bulls need a close above 2.365 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (2.356)

easing bearish pressure, above 2.419 to return initial focus to 2.477 and

overall focus to 2.544-580. Bears now need a close below 2.304 to confirm a

break of the 200-DMA and target 2.245-278.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Correction Risk Heightened 

*RES 4: $59.69 - High June 30 2015 

*RES 3: $57.94 - Low June 30 2015 now resistance 

*RES 2: $57.92 - 2017 High Nov 8 

*RES 1: $57.33 - High Nov 9

*PRICE: $57.03 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.69 - Low Nov 9 

*SUP 2: $56.28 - Hourly resistance Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $55.62 - Hourly support Nov 3 

*SUP 4: $55.22 - High Nov 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: A bearish key day reversal Wed combined with momentum divergence

and studies looking to correct from very O/B greatly increases the risk of a

correction. Bears continue to look for a close below $56.28 to confirm an easing

of bullish pressure and below $55.22 to hint at a move back to $53. 75-96 where

the 21-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above $57.94 to reconfirm a bullish bias

targeting the 200-WMA ($60.75).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Support Layers Accumulating

*RES 4: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 3: $1297.1 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1295.7 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19

*PRICE: $1286.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.7 - Hourly support Nov 9 

*SUP 2: $1278.6 - Hourly support Nov 8 

*SUP 3: $1271.8 - Low Nov 7 

*SUP 4: $1265.2 - Low Nov 3

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA has seen breaks of the 21-DMA

($1280.2) and bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a move

initially targeting $1320.0 with above $1306.0 to confirm. The $1243.8 $1265.2

support region where the 200-DMA and channel base ($1254.2) are located remains

key. Bears need a close below $1243.8 to shift initial focus to Sept lows

($1204.6) and overall focus to 2017 lows ($1146.0).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]