MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

https://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Needs Boost Of A $1.1690 Break

*RES 4: $1.1824 50% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 3: $1.1754 2 month falling resistance line, 1% vol band

*RES 2: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1690 Nov 3 high

*PRICE: $1.1671 @0505GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1615/23 Hourly support, Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: $1.1600 Hourly congestion area Nov 8-9

*SUP 3: $1.1579 Nov 8 low

*SUP 4: $1.1554 Nov 7 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from around the $1.1555 level last Tuesday, before

being rescued by some near term oversold conditions. Thursday's move back above

the previously troublesome $1.1660 area is a positive and eyes are now on the

the slightly higher $1.1690 high from Nov 3. Clearly above the latter would give

the recovery a further boost. Meanwhile, Friday's $1.1623 low is initial

support, with $1.1600-$1.1579 then protecting that $1.1554-55 area again.

CABLE TECHS: Decline Sees Move Back Toward Base Of Recent Range

*RES 4: $1.3230/40 Nov 10 high, Nov 1 low

*RES 3: $1.3189 Initial low Nov 10, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3162 Hourly base Nov 10, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3135 Nov 13 high

*PRICE: $1.3117 @0510GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3062 Nov 13 low

*SUP 2: $1.3027/39 Oct 6, Nov 3 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3005 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2983 76.4% Fibo retrace of $1.2774-$1.3659

*COMMENTARY* A high of $1.3230 on Friday, the rally flattering to deceive and

falling back quickly as a result. The subsequent loss of the key $1.3085-$1.3070

area is now a concern. This sees the base of the range at $1.3027 eventually

becoming vulnerable. Resistance moves to $1.3135, needing back above the latter

to improve in the near term and allow some further recovery. Below $1.3027, the

lower 1% volatility band protects $1.2983-$1.2921.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y113.75 Still In Way Of Further Progression

*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 3: Y114.34 Nov 7 high

*RES 2: Y114.07 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: Y113.72/75 Nov 13 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.66 @0512GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.09/22 Nov 9, Nov 10 lows

*SUP 2: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: Y112.67 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Still finding support from within the recent range, the

Y113.22-Y113.09 area now protecting the key Y112.96 support level. The upside

can still only benefit by a move through Y113.75 resistance, above which would

allow a higher Y114.07-Y114.34 rise, as we claw back some of the recent losses

from Y114.74. Loss of Y112.96 then sees the lower 1% volatility band ahead of

Y112.38 Fibo support.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Back On Y132.74-Y132.85 Resistance

*RES 4: Y133.75 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y133.15 Nov 2 high

*RES 2: Y132.85 Hourly congestion Nov 3

*RES 1: Y132.74 76.4% Fibo of Y133.15-Y131.40

*PRICE: Y132.71 @0519GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.10/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.93 Nov 13 low

*SUP 3: Y131.69 Hourly base Nov 9

*SUP 4: Y131.40 Nov 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Still need to see an added rise through Y132.74-Y132.85 resistance,

before the near term bias for higher will be confirmed and another challenge to

the Nov 2 high at Y133.15 and potentially higher. In the meantime, the loss of

Y132.00 support was brief, a low of Y131.93 before reviving again. Loss of

Y132.10-Y131.93 will caution now and point towards a deeper Y131.69-Y131.40

pullback.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Continues, Dual Resistance From Stg0.8939

*RES 4: Stg0.9022/32 Oct 20, Oct 12 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8961 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8733

*RES 2: Stg0.8939 Nov 2 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8923 Nov 13 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8900 @0525GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8870/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8840/45 Congestion area Nov 8-Nov 9

*SUP 3: Stg0.8824 Nov 9 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8791 Nov 7 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8791 last week, thereby saving the downside

from a test to the pivotal Stg0.8784-Stg0.8782 area. The subsequent recovery has

now broken back above Stg0.8885. This has seen a challenge and break above

Stg0.8912 resistance. Above here and the upper 1% volatility band and Nov 2 high

at Stg0.8939 then become the bar to a further Stg0.8961 rise. Support from

Stg0.8875-Stg0.8870, with Stg0.8845-Stg0.8840 below.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7625 Break Can See Further $0.7585-$0.7560 Fall

*RES 4: $0.7730 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: $0.7695/01 Nov 10, Nov 7 highs

*RES 2: $0.7666 Nov 13 high

*RES 1: $0.7650/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7633 @0528GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7585/87 1.618 swing $0.7627-$0.7695, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: $0.7571 Jul 5 low

*SUP 3: $0.7560 1.618 swing of $0.7625-$0.7730

*SUP 4: $0.7535 Jun 22 low

*COMMENTARY* The $0.7625 level has recently come under attack again, a lower of

$0.7609 seen so far, as we make our way back towards the lower 1% volatility

band and swing target at $0.7587-$0.7585. This then the protection against

further $0.7571-$0.7560 fall, if the swing of the recent $0.7625-$.7730 rise

plays out in full. As a result, resistance comes initially from $0.7650-$0.7655

but back above Monday's $0.7666 high currently needed for near term impetus.

     GOLD TECHS: Eyes Now On $1271.8 Support

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1282.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1276.7 @0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.8 Nov 7 low

*SUP 2: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 2 low

*COMMENTARY* After trying at the back end of last week, the rally was unable to

challenge and clear $1289.9 Fibo resistance. As a result, we have seen a swift

retreat, to close the week just above the Nov 7 low at $1271.8. Will need to

remain above this latter level, if the upside momentum gained since the $1265.5

low at the beginning of the month, is to survive. Resistance falls in the

meantime, $1282.7 now the bar to any upside renaissance.

     OIL TECHS: NYMEX WTI: (Z17) Correction Risk Continues

*RES 4: $58.44 Jan 2 high

*RES 3: $57.92 Nov 8 high

*RES 2: $57.53 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: $57.15 Nov 13 high

*PRICE: $56.63 @0533GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $56.30 Nov 13 low

*SUP 2: $55.90 50% Fibo of $53.89-$57.92

*SUP 3: $55.43 61.8% Fibo of $53.89-$57.92

*SUP 4: $55.22 Nov 1 high, now support

*COMMENTARY: Still suffering as a result of the bearish outside day last

Wednesday. In this respect, the loss of firstly $56.51 support and then the Nov

8 low at $56.41 has increased the risk for a downside correction. A low of

$56.30 so far, as we head toward next $55.90-$55.43 supports. In the meantime,

$57.15-$57.53 provides near term resistance against any recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]