MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1880 Resistance Key To Further Gains

*RES 4: $1.1880 High Oct 12

*RES 3: $1.1861 High Nov 15 

*RES 2: $1.1822 High Nov 17 

*RES 1: $1.1758 Low Nov 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1731 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1687 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1678 High Nov 10 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1638 Hourly support Nov 9 & 10 

*SUP 4: $1.1622 Hourly support Nov 9

*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top and 100-DMA last week saw a

rally, only to remain capped ahead of the previously noted $1.1880 resistance.

Bulls continue to look for a close above this level to confirm traction above

the 55-DMA ($1.1788) and initially target $1.2033. Daily studies approaching O/B

is less than ideal and the Bollinger top ($1.1836) currently limits topside

follow through. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to target $1.1554.

     CABLE TECHS: Lacking Follow Through Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3320 High Nov 1 

*RES 2: $1.3259 High Nov 17 

*RES 1: $1.3242 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3202 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3170 Low Nov 17, 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3118 Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*SUP 3: $1.3060 Low Nov 13 

*SUP 4: $1.3024 Monthly Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains confined to a broad $1.3024-1.3343 range. The

recovery from ahead of the range base is again struggling with the 55-DMA as a

lack of follow through on breaks persists. Bulls now need a close above $1.3259

to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and pressure the key $1.3343 level. Bears now

need a close below the 21-DMA to ease pressure on resistance layers.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.48 & Y112.72 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.49 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y113.33 High Nov 16 

*RES 2: Y112.72 Low Nov 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y112.34 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y112.03 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.71 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y111.65 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: Y111.48 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 4: Y110.32 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Losses last week resulted in a close below the 55-DMA with

immediate focus on Y111.48-74 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated. Bears look for

a close below Y111.48 to confirm a break of 100 & 200-DMAs with initial focus

shifting to Y109.52 and overall focus to Y107.30 2017 lows. The 55-DMA is seen

as initial resistance but bulls look for a close above Y112.72 to ease bearish

pressure and shift initial focus to Y113.33-49 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: Y133.66 Hourly support Oct 24

*RES 3: Y133.18 High Nov 17

*RES 2: Y132.42 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.83 Hourly resistance Nov 20

*PRICE: Y131.38 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.22 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y131.17 Hourly support Nov 20 

*SUP 3: Y130.59 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Y129.34 Low Sept 6

*COMMENTARY: The pair is again looking heavy having failed to trouble the double

daily top around Y134.50 where 2017 highs are situated. Bears now look for a

close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to Y127.42 with below Y130.59 to

add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to ease

pressure on supports and shift focus back to Y133.86-134.50. The Bollinger base

(Y131.14) is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8718 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.9022 High Oct 20 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8968 High Now 16 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8951 100-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8900 Hourly resistance Nov 18

*PRICE: Gbp0.8885 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8870 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8837 Low Nov 13 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8789 Low Nov 7 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8778 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of Gbp0.8718 failed ahead of the Gbp0.8922

resistance with the pair looking heavy again and pressuring the 21-DMA. Bears

now look for a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure

and to shift focus back to Gbp0.8718-78 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are

situated. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8968 to gain breathing room and

above Gbp0.9048 to shift focus to Gbp0.9107.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Pressuring 100-WMA

*RES 4: $0.7695 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7666 - Bear channel top

*RES 2: $0.7609 - High Nov 16

*RES 1: $0.7579 - Hourly support Nov 17 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7555 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7543 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7456 - Weekly bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7425 - Daily bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA is recent weeks retains the

integrity of the daily bear channel with pressure currently on the

$0.7456-0.7543 region where the 100-WMA and channel bases are situated. Bears

need a close below $0.7519 to retain the bearish bias and below the weekly bull

channel base to target $0.7319-65. Bulls now look for a close above $0.7609 to

gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to $0.7666-0.7729.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 94.359 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 94.178 - Hourly resistance Nov 14

*PRICE: 93.969 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.622 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.395 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.055 - Low Oct 19

*SUP 4: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with the close below the 21-DMA seeing

pressure back on key supports. Bears continue to look for a close below the

55-DMA to add weight to the case for a move back to 2017 lows although a close

below 92.724 remains needed to confirm. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to

ease bearish pressure and above 94.650 to shift focus back to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.273-319 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 2.434 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.386 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 1: 2.356 - Hourly resistance Nov 17

*PRICE: 2.326 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.319 - Low Nov 15 

*SUP 2: 2.307 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.299 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.281 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from the week's high continued to find support

ahead of the 200-DMA with the 2.273-3.319 support region now key. 55, 100 &

200-DMAs are noted in this region with bears now needing a close below 2.273 to

confirm breaks of key DMAs shifting immediate focus to 2.207. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 2.419 to return initial focus to 2.477 and overall focus

to 2.544-580.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) $55.00-83 Support Key This Week 

*RES 4: $60.05 - High June 30 2015 

*RES 3: $58.97 - Daily bull channel top 

*RES 2: $58.14 - 2017 High Nov 8 

*RES 1: $57.37 - High Nov 13

*PRICE: $56.76 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.34 - Hourly support Nov 17 

*SUP 2: $55.83 - High Nov 16 now support 

*SUP 3: $55.33 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $55.00 - Weekly Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2017 highs found support ahead of the

21-DMA which provided the base for a rally and bullish close Friday. Bulls

currently focus on the $57.37-58.14 region with a close above to pressure the

bull channel top. Bears now need a close below $55.83 to ease bullish pressure

and below $55.00 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA ($55.33) and shift focus to

$52.75-53.96 where the 55-DMA is situated.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1289.1

*RES 4: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 3: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 

*RES 2: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $1297.0 - Hourly Nov 17

*PRICE: $1291.8 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1289.1 - High Nov 15 now support 

*SUP 2: $1281.9 - Hourly support Nov 17 

*SUP 3: $1275.0 - Low Nov 16 

*SUP 4: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: Having found support ahead of the 200-DMA ($1264.7) in recent weeks

bulls take comfort in Friday's close above the 55-DMA ($1291.7) with focus now

having shifted to layers of resistance $1306.0-1320.0. Initial support is noted

at $1289.1 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and hint at

a correction back to $1257.6-1264.9 where the bull channel base and 200-DMA are

noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]