MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

30 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1884-1.1920 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1.2022 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 2: $1.1920 High Nov 28

*RES 1: $1.1884 High Nov 29

*PRICE: $1.1863 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1813 Hourly support Nov 23 

*SUP 2: $1.1802 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.1782 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1747 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the $1.1813 level confirming significance and

the pair bouncing from ahead of the bull channel base. The $1.1690-1.1813

support region remains key with bears needing a close below $1.1690 to target

$1.1553 Nov 7 lows. Bulls now look for a close above $1.1884 to gain breathing

room and above $1.1920 to target $1.1961-1.2033 where the bull channel top is

noted.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3333-73 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: $1.3833 Monthly Low Mar 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1.3595 High Sept 22 

*RES 1: $1.3514 High Sept 26

*PRICE: $1.3466 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3447 High Nov 29 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3373 Hourly support Nov 29 

*SUP 3: $1.3333 Hourly resistance Nov 28 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3264 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7week highs continue with bulls now needing a weekly close

above the LT bear channel top at $1.3470 to shift overall focus to

$1.3656-1.3833. O/B daily studies and Bollinger band top ($1.3438) remain key

concerns for bulls. In saying that, the $1.3333-73 support region is key today.

Bears need a close below this region to shift focus back to $1.3208-25 where the

21-DMA is situated.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y111.35 To Signal False Break Higher

*RES 4: Y112.72 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y112.69 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.87 Low Nov 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y112.18 Hourly resistance Nov 22, Bear channel top

*PRICE: Y112.03 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.67 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 3: Y110.84 Hourly support Nov 24 

*SUP 4: Y110.30 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 200-DMA has resulted in a close above

adding support to the bullish case for a correction back to 55 & 21-DMAs.

Correcting O/S studies add to the correction risk. Bulls initially look for a

close above Y112.18 today. Initial support is now noted at the 200-DMA but bears

need a close below Y111.35 Wednesday lows to signal a false break and reconfirm

initial focus on Y110.30-84 where the bear channel base is situated.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.23 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 3: Y133.88 High Nov 14

*RES 2: Y133.53 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y133.23 High Nov 24

*PRICE: Y132.87 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.38 Hourly resistance Nov 29 now support 

*SUP 2: Y131.71 Low Nov 28 

*SUP 3: Y131.45 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y131.21 Low Nov 23

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provides bulls

breathing room but the Y133.23 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

to gain traction above the 55-DMA (Y132.67) and return initial pressure to

Y133.88-134.50. Bears now need a close below Y132.38 to retain focus on

Y131.21-45 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below Y131.21 to end

bullish hopes and shift overall focus back to Y127.54.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Focus Confirmed On Gbp0.8717-93

*RES 4: Gbp0.8954 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8873 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8843 Hourly resistance Nov 29

*PRICE: Gbp0.8808 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8793 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8785 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8724 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8717 Low June 16

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8955) and daily bear

channel top now see immediate focus back on the key Gbp0.8717-93 region where

the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located, Bears look for a close below Gbp0.8717 to

reconfirm a bearish bias and target Gbp0.8475-88 where the bear channel base and

100-WMA are noted. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish

pressure.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7519 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7692 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7644 - High Nov 28

*RES 2: $0.7620 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7611 - Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: $0.7584 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7550 - Low Nov 29 

*SUP 2: $0.7532 - Low Nov 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through around the 21-DMA resulted in a

move back towards the key $0.7519 support. Bears continue to look for a close

below $0.7519 to reconfirm focus on tests of $0.7319-65 where the daily bear

channel base is situated. The $0.7644 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close

above to confirm a break of the bear channel top and 21-DMA, shifting immediate

bullish focus to the 200-DMA and then $0.7730-68 with the 55-DMA at $0.7750.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 94.178 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 3: 93.962 - High Nov 22 

*RES 2: 93.574 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.406 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: 93.156 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.992 - Low Nov 29

*SUP 2: 92.827 - Low Nov 28

*SUP 3: 92.496 - Low Nov 27

*SUP 4: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*COMMENTARY: Closes below the 55-DMA & 100-DMA resulted in a marginal break of

92.724 but follow through has been lacking. Bulls take comfort in the correction

back towards the 55-DMA but need a close above to shift initial focus to

93.927-165 where the 21-DMA (93.927) is located. While the 55-DMA caps bears

remain focused on 91.011-781 where 2017 lows are situated. Correcting O/S

studies are the key concern for bears.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 21-DMA Key Support Today

*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.405 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.395 - High Nov 29

*PRICE: 2.385 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.374 - Hourly support Nov 29 

*SUP 2: 2.352 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.310 - Low Nov 28 

*SUP 4: 2.305 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA failed to produce a break lower with bulls

taking comfort in the close above the 21-DMA that sees bullish focus return to

the 2.419 resistance. Bulls need a close above this level to shift initial focus

to tests of Oct highs. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish

pressure and return focus to the 2.273-3.305 support region where 100 & 200-DMAs

are noted. Daily studies are better placed for leg higher than lower.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) $56.75 Support Now Key 

*RES 4: $59.13 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $59.05 - 2017 High Nov 24 

*RES 2: $58.37 - Hourly resistance Nov 27 

*RES 1: $57.52 - Hourly resistance Nov 29

*PRICE: $57.42 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.81 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $56.75 - Low Nov 29 

*SUP 3: $55.75 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: $55.00 - Weekly Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Monday negated Friday's gains with focus now on the

$56.75-57.81 support region where the 21-DMA is located. Bears now need a close

below $56.75 to shift immediate focus to $55.00-75 and overall focus back to

$53.06-96 where the 55-DMA ($53.76) and bull channel base ($53.86) reside. The

$58.37 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to return

pressure to 2017 highs once more.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 3: $1299.1 - High Nov 27 

*RES 2: $1293.6 - Hourly support Nov 29 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1288.4 - Hourly resistance Nov 29

*PRICE: $1284.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1282.7 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1279.0 - Low Nov 22 

*SUP 3: $1274.9 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 21-DMA with bears needing a close

below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus back to

$1260.2-1266.7 where the bull channel base and 200-DMA are situated. Bulls now

need a close above $1288.4 to ease pressure on the 21-DMA and above $1299.1 to

reconfirm focus on $1306.0-1320.0. Above $1320.0 targets $1357.5 2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]