MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Hint at Correction

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20

*RES 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 2: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 1: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1870 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1828 Low Dec 5 

*SUP 2: $1.1813 Hourly support Nov 23 

*SUP 3: $1.1769 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1713 Low Nov 21

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel top ($1.2066) capped last week and resulted

in a dip below the channel base ($1.1846) Monday. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below

$1.1690 to confirm initial focus on $1.1552 Nov lows. The $1.1961 resistance is

key this week with bulls needing a close above to reconfirm a bullish bias and

focus on $1.2033-92.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3373

*RES 4: $1.3833 Monthly Low Mar 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1.3595 High Sept 22 

*RES 1: $1.3549 High Nov 30

*PRICE: $1.3465 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3415 Low Dec 4 

*SUP 2: $1.3373 Hourly support Nov 29 

*SUP 3: $1.3333 Hourly resistance Nov 28 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3265 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7week highs lacked follow through last week as the pair

flirts with the LT weekly bear channel top around $1.3440. Bulls look for a

weekly close above to shift focus to $1.3656-1.3833 where 2017 highs are

located. The $1.3373-1.3415 support is key today. Bears need a close below to

ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to $1.3169-1.3281 where key DMAS are

noted. Bulls need a close above $1.3549 to add support to their case.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Close Below Y112.30 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.33 High Nov 16 

*RES 2: Y113.10 High Dec 4 

*RES 1: Y112.85 Hourly resistance Dec 4

*PRICE: Y112.54 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.30 Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.82 Hourly support Dec 1 

*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: Friday saw a recovery from a dip below the 200-DMA (Y111.67) to

flirt with the 55-DMA (Y112.75). Bulls take comfort in Friday's bounce with

focus remaining on Y113.33. Bulls need a close above Y113.33 to add support to

the case for a move initially targeting Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears need a close

below Y112.30 to ease pressure on resistance layers and below Y110.83 to end

bullish hopes, initially targeting Y109.52 with overall focus on 2017 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 2: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 1: Y134.05 Hourly support Dec 1 now resistance

*PRICE: Y133.60 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.91 Low Dec 1 

*SUP 2: Y132.71 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y132.61 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y131.75 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2017 highs Friday was less than ideal for

bulls who currently look for a close above 2017 highs to shift overall focus to

the Y139.02-141.04 region last seen in 2015. Bulls will need a close above

Y136.95 to add support to their case. The 21-DMA remains key support. Bears need

a close below the 21-DMA to return pressure to the Y130.59-75 region where the

bull channel base off Aug lows and 100-DMA (Y131.59) are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8944 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8871 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8844 High Dec 1

*PRICE: Gbp0.8808 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8788 Hourly support Dec 4 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8753 Low Dec 4 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8729 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8717 Low June 16

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8956) and bear channel top

have resulted in dips below the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8797) but follow through remains

lacking. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and shift focus back to Gbp0.8939-81 where the bear channel top and

100-DMA are noted. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8717 to reconfirm a bearish

bias and target Gbp0.8472-88 where the bear channel base and 100-WMA are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls In Control While $0.7624 Supports

*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7729 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7691 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7680 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $0.7649 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7624 - Hourly support Dec 5 

*SUP 2: $0.7578 - Low Dec 4 

*SUP 3: $0.7550 - Low Dec 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7539 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining heavy bears failed to produce the close below

$0.7519 needed to reconfirm focus on $0.7319-32 where the daily bear channel

base ($0.7323) is situated. The marginal break of $0.7544 has so far lacked

follow through with bears now needing a close below $0.7624 to gain breathing

room and below $0.7578 to return focus to the key $0.7519 support. While $0.7624

supports bulls shift focus to $0.7691-0.7768 where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key DMAs

*RES 4: 93.962 - High Nov 22 

*RES 3: 93.666 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 93.632 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.346 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: 93.055 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.952 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support

*SUP 2: 92.604 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: 92.496 - Low Nov 27

*SUP 4: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 55-DMA capping the recovery from 92.496

and the index left looking gently offered. Bears look for a close below 92.496

to add weight to the case for a test of 2017 lows although initially focus

shifts to 91.526-781. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA (93.666) to shift

initial focus to 94.165 and overall focus to 95.167-464 where monthly highs are

located

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.273 & 2.477 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 3: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 1: 2.424 - High Dec 1

*PRICE: 2.390 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.371 - Low Dec 4 

*SUP 2: 2.310 - Low Nov 28 

*SUP 3: 2.304 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.283 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.477 Oct highs remain key with the yield rejected aggressively

ahead of this level Friday. Bulls look for a close above this level to target

2.544-2.628 where 2017 highs are situated. Volatility saw support levels taken

out before bouncing ahead of the 200-DMA. The 2.273 support remains key. Bears

need a close below to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to

2.171-185 where the 200-WMA is noted.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) $56.75 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: $59.05 - 2017 High Nov 24 

*RES 3: $58.95 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $58.40 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 1: $58.02 - Hourly resistance Dec 4

*PRICE: $57.60 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $57.20 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $56.75 - Low Nov 29 

*SUP 3: $55.75 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: $55.00 - Weekly Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: Dips remained support around the 21-DMA last week but the lack of

topside follow through is a concern for bulls who look for a close above $59.05

to reconfirm the bullish bias overall targeting the 200-WMA ($60.41). Bears need

a close below $56.75 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, shifting immediate focus

to $55.00-75 and overall focus back to $53.96-54.19 where the 55-DMA ($54.13)

and bull channel base ($54.19) reside.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Oct Lows Remain Key Support

*RES 4: $1299.1 - High Nov 27 

*RES 3: $1293.6 - Hourly support Nov 29 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1289.3 - High Dec 1 

*RES 1: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1

*PRICE: $1275.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 

*SUP 2: $1269.0 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1267.0 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1263.7 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the $1260.2-1269.9 region where the 200-DMA

bull channel base off Dec 20 2916 lows and Bollinger base are situated has so

far failed to produce a break lower. Bears still need a close below $1243.4 to

confirm focus on retests of 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh

leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $1289.3 to ease bearish pressure.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]