MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

https://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Still Congested Support From Between $1.1728-$1.1694

*RES 4: $1.1877 Dec 5 high

*RES 3: $1.1848 Dec 6 high

*RES 2: $1.1809/15 Nov 30 low, Dec 7 high

*RES 1: $1.1785/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1785 @0615GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1728/30 1.618 swing $1.1809-$1.1940, Dec 8 low

*SUP 2: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low

*SUP 3: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940

*SUP 4: $1.1650 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.1961

*COMMENTARY* The decline has broken below key near term support from around the

76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.1773.  Below and there is still plenty of

congested support now from between $1.1728-$1.$1.1694, that is capable of

providing protection to the next key level, another 76.4% Fibo retrace at

$1.1650. Resistance $1.1785-$1.1795 but back above $1.1809-$1.1815 needed to

generate upside interest.

CABLE TECHS: Holding Above The 4 Week Rising Support Line

*RES 4: $1.3550 Dec 1 high

*RES 3: $1.3521 Dec 8 high

*RES 2: $1.3485 Dec 7 high

*RES 1: $1.3435/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3405 @0635GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3351/55 4 week rising support line, Dec 8 low

*SUP 2: $1.3314/20 1.618 swing $1.3370-$1.3461, Dec 7 low

*SUP 3: $1.3298 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: $1.3221 Nov 28 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally found a base at $1.3320 last Thursday, just above the swing

target at $1.3314 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3298. The subsequent recovery

has not so far been able to sustain a move back above $1.3505, a high of $1.3521

on Friday before slipping back again. Now looking to the 4 week rising support

line at $1.3351 to protect the downside from another assault. Meanwhile,

$1.3435-$1.3485 is resistance.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Still Has Y113.77-Y113.82 Resistance Ahead

*RES 4: Y114.93 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 2: Y114.24/34 Equality rise from Y111.99, Nov 7 high

*RES 1: Y113.77/82 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84

*PRICE: Y113.54 @0640GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.09/13 Dec 4 high, Dec 8 low

*SUP 2: Y112.80 Hourly high Dec 7, now support

*SUP 3: Y112.57 Hourly base Dec 7

*SUP 4: Y112.38 Initial recovery high Dec 6, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move through Y112.87 and then Monday's Y113.09 high, has

generated fresh upside interest. This now centres on Y113.77-Y113.82. A

combination of the upper 1% volatility band and the 76.4% retrace level of the

preceding Y114.74-Y110.84 fall. While capped here, look to Y113.13-Y113.09 for

initial support and clues, as loss will open up corrective potential of the rise

from Y111.99. Above Y113.82 and Y114.24-Y114.34 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Y132.88 The Immediate Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: Y134.50/60 Oct 25 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y134.38 Dec 1 high

*RES 2: Y134.05 Dec 4 high

*RES 1: Y133.88 76.4% Fibo of Y134.38-Y132.26

*PRICE: Y133.76 @0645GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.11/20 Dec 8 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.71 Hourly base Dec 7

*SUP 3: Y132.55 Hourly congestion area Dec 6

*SUP 4: Y132.26 Dec 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Having found support at Y132.26 last Wednesday, now moving back up

the Y134.50-Y131.17 range, that has been in existence for the last 3 months. The

76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y133.88 is the next potential barrier to gains,

Y134.05-Y134.38 higher. In the interim, support comes from Y133.20-Y133.11, loss

would trigger a deeper correction of that rise from Y132.26, with

Y132.71-Y132.55 below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8810-Stg0.8815 In Way Of Further Recovery

*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8880/90 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Stg0.8850/54 Dec 7, Dec 6 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8810/15 Congestion pivot Nov 30-Dec 7 

*PRICE: Stg0.8781 @0655GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8745/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8717 Initial recovery high Dec 8, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low, equality fall from Stg0.8868

*COMMENTARY* Last weeks early recovery was unable to deal with

Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 resistance. This leaving the downside vulnerable to a

further assault. Initial warning was the move back below Stg0.8780 and then

Stg0.8756 on Friday. A low of Stg0.8689 then seen, just above the swing target

at Stg0.8687, this protecting against a Stg0.8642 fall. Subsequent rally has

Stg0.8810-15 in the way of Stg0.8850-54. Meanwhile, Stg0.8755-Stg0.8717 support.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Fall Once Again Being Held By Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $0.7625/27 Oct 27, Nov 7 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7598 Hourly recovery high Dec 6

*RES 2: $0.7572 Hourly base Dec 6, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7555/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7530 @0705GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7502 Dec 8 low

*SUP 2: $0.7483/89 6 week bear channel base, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: $0.7457 1.618 swing of $0.7532-$0.7654

*SUP 4: $0.7413 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The continued failure to be able to deal with $0.7655-$0.7685

resistance culminated last week in a fall and break below the key 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $0.7520. A low of $0.7502 seen so far and can allow some

exuberance to the lower 1% volatility band and 6 week bear channel base between

$0.7489-$0.7483. Any lower and then looking at a further 0.7457 fall. Nearest

resistance now 0.7555-60, back above here would give some respite.

     GOLD TECHS: Decline Has $1242.5-$1240.9 As Next Potential Target Zone

*RES 4: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1260.7 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1254.5 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1250.7 @0709GMT

*SUP 1: $1242.5 1.618x $1299.3-$1270.4 from $1289.3

*SUP 2: $1241.9 1.618 swing of $1263.8-$1299.3

*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*COMMENTARY* Having lost key support from $1262.3 and $1260.7 earlier last week,

the pace of the fall quickened. This now sees congested support from between

$1242.5 and $1240.9, as the next potential target area and a brake against a

deeper $1232.6 decline. Resistance meanwhile, comes initially from $1254.5,

above which a succession of recent lows now combine to form an umbrella of

resistance above.

     OIL TECHS: NYMEX WTI: (F18) $56.98-$56.78 Support

*RES 4: $59.05 Nov 24 high

*RES 3: $58.34 Dec 4 high

*RES 2: $57.79 Dec 8 high

*RES 1: $57.60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $57.28 @0712GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $56.98 Hourly base Dec 8

*SUP 2: $56.78 Dec 7 high, now support

*SUP 3: $56.54 Dec 8 low

*SUP 4: $56.30 Initial recovery high Dec 7, now support

*COMMENTARY: The pullback to $55.82 last week, looks like the end of a 3 wave

correction, following the rise to $59.05 toward the end of last month. While

held above here, there is scope to see a recovery, with $57.60-$57.79 the

initial resistance to gains, with a further move back above $58.34 needed to

inspire another assault on that $59.05 high. Meanwhile a loss of $56.98 and

especially $56.78 will caution and delay gains.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]