MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.1884

*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 2: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1848 High Dec 6

*PRICE: $1.1832 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1813 Hourly support Dec 13 

*SUP 2: $1.1779 Hourly breakout level Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $1.1729 Low Dec 13 

*SUP 4: $1.1713 Low Nov 21

*COMMENTARY: The failure by bears to manage a break of the key $1.1690 support

sees the pair correcting higher with the close above the 21-DMA ($1.1819) adding

support to the bullish case for a move back to $1.1940-61 and above $1.1884 to

confirm. Daily studies are well placed for further topside. Bears now need a

close below $1.1779 to ease immediate bullish pressure and shift focus back to

the key $1.1690 support.

     CABLE TECHS: Hinting At Move To $1.3549-1.3656

*RES 4: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.3595 High Sept 22 

*RES 2: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 1: $1.3519 High Dec 8

*PRICE: $1.3436 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3379 High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3302 Low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1.3254 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3195 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Time spent below the 21-DMA ($1.3361) was brief with the close

above $1.3374 easing bearish pressure and bulls now looking for a close above

$1.3432 (Dec 11 high) to confirm focus back on $1.3549-1.3656 where 2017 highs

are located. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears now need a close

below $1.3379 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.3302 to confirm focus on

$1.3185-1.3254 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13a 

*RES 1: Y112.85 Hourly resistance Dec 13, 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y112.61 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.33 Hourly resistance Dec 7a now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 3: Y111.63 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29

*COMMENTARY: Recent hesitation has seen the pair head lower taking out key

supports and looking a little heavy. Bears need a close below Y112.33 to confirm

focus on Y110.83-111.68 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Initial

resistance is noted at Y112.85 but bulls need a close above Y113.30 to ease

bearish pressure whereas a close above Y114.07 is needed to reconfirm a bullish

bias that initially targets Y114.72 where the LT TL off 2015 highs is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y133.88

*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 3: Y134.17 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y133.47 Hourly resistance Dec 12

*RES 1: Y133.50 Hourly resistance Dec 14

*PRICE: Y133.23 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.17 Hourly resistance Dec 13 now support 

*SUP 2: Y132.58 Hourly support Dec 7 

*SUP 3: Y132.24 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 4: Y132.13 Daily Bull channel base off Aug Low

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 21 (Y132.81) &

55 (Y132.72) DMAs but need a close above Y133.88 to confirm initial focus on

tests of 2017 highs. The Y131.71-132.24 region where the 100-DMA and bull

channel base are situated remains key support. Bears need a close below Y131.71

to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA with below Y131.21 confirming. Daily

studies are well placed for bulls but the Bollinger top remains the key concern.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8773

*RES 4: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8902 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8871 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8845 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8806 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8780 Low Dec 13 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8773 Hourly support Dec 11a 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: The break of Gbp0.8717 support Friday lacked follow through with

the pair bouncing from below the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8734) last week. The close above

the 200-DMA Monday eased bearish pressure and sees focus back on the 55-DMA.

Bulls still need a close above the 55-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8902-81

where the bear channel top and 100-DMA are noted. Bears now look for a close

below Gbp0.8773 to return pressure to the Gbp0.8690 6mth low from last week.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Support Layers Developing At A Rapid Pace

*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 2: $0.7690 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7684 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7670 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7641 - Hourly breakout level Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low saw a close above the channel top

with the pair very bid and pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs. Layers of resistance remain

$0.7684-0.7800 with bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA ($0.7800) to shift

overall focus to tests of 2017 highs. Support layers are emerging at a rapid

pace with bears now needing a close below $0.7623 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and below $0.7580 to return initial focus to $0.7500.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pressuring 100-DMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 94.107 - High Dec 13 

*RES 2: 93.666 - Low Dec 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: 93.500 - Hourly resistance Dec 13

*PRICE: 93.372 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 93.326 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.171 - Low Dec 6

*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*SUP 4: 92.878 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower leaves the index looking a little heavy and

pressuring the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below 93.035 to shift pressure

back to the 92.496-878 region where Nov lows and the bull channel base are

situated. Correcting O/B studies are now weighing. Bulls now need a close above

93.666 to gain breathing room and above 94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias

targeting 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Returns to 2.273-303

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 3: 2.426 - High Dec 13 

*RES 2: 2.398 - Hourly resistance Dec 13 

*RES 1: 2.369 - Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.362 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.343 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 2.303 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.289 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: The 2.437 resistance remains key with topside failures resulting in

a sell-off and bears focused on the 2.273-303 region where key DMAs and Oct low

are located. Layers of resistance building are now weighing with bulls needing a

close above 2.398 to ease bearish pressure and return initial focus to

2.426-437. Overall above 2.437 targets 2017 highs and below 2.273 hints at a

move back to 2017 lows at 2.016 with below 2.207 to confirm.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Bull Channel Base Pressured 

*RES 4: $58.60 - High Dec 12 

*RES 3: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12 

*RES 2: $57.40 - Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $56.90 - Hourly resistance Dec 13

*PRICE: $56.76 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.53 - Low Dec 13, Bull channel base (Oct mthly low) 

*SUP 2: $55.88 - Low Dec 7 

*SUP 3: $55.15 - Low Nov 14 

*SUP 4: $54.90 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of the $58.99 Nov high was less than

ideal for bulls and sees pressure on the daily bull channel base off Oct lows.

Bears look for a close below $56.53 to confirm a break and to shift focus to

$54.90-55.15 where the 55-DMA is situated. Bulls now need a close $57.40 to ease

pressure on the channel base and above $57.98 to reconfirm initial focus on

$58.60-58.99.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To $1269.9-1289.5

*RES 4: $1285.1 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 2: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $1258.2 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13 

*SUP 2: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1227.8 - Low July 17

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise further on recent fresh 6mth lows with

the bounce easing immediate bearish pressure. Correcting O/S daily studies add

support to the case for a move back to layers of resistance $1269.9-1286.3 where

DMAs and bear channel top are noted with bulls now needing a close above

$1260.1. The $1235.9 support is now key with bears needing a close below to

reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on the channel base ($1208.4).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]