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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
19 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1690 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $1.1940 High Dec 1
*RES 3: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 2: $1.1862 High Dec 14
*RES 1: $1.1834 Hourly resistance Dec 15
*PRICE: $1.1787 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1745 Daily Bull channel base (off Nov Low)
*SUP 2: $1.1713 Low Nov 21
*SUP 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support
*SUP 4: $1.1621 Low Nov 10
*COMMENTARY: Support continues to emerge on dips back towards the key $1.1690
level. Bears continue to look for a close below $1.1690 to initially target
$1.1552 Nov lows. Modestly O/S daily studies are the key concern for bears.
Topside follow through was lacking Monday with bulls continuing to look for a
close above $1.1884 to see focus return to the $1.1940-1.1962 region with above
$1.1962 to pressure 2017 highs.
CABLE TECHS: Lower Daily Highs On Bounces
*RES 4: $1.3549 High Nov 30
*RES 3: $1.3519 High Dec 8
*RES 2: $1.3462 High Dec 14
*RES 1: $1.3418 High Dec 18
*PRICE: $1.3381 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3359 Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 2: $1.3300 Low Dec 15
*SUP 3: $1.3257 55-DMA
*SUP 4: $1.3200 100-DMA, Daily bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in yet another bounce from around the $1.3300
level but lower daily highs on bounces are less than ideal. Bears continue to
look for a close below $1.3200 to confirm breaks of key DMAs and the bull
channel base, shifting focus to $1.2992-1.3037 where the 200-DMA ($1.2999) is
located. Bulls now need a close above $1.3462 to confirm an easing of bearish
pressure and above $1.3549 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs ($1.3656).
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y112.88
*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*RES 2: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13a
*RES 1: Y112.88 High Dec 14
*PRICE: Y112.62 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.33 21-DMA
*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*SUP 3: Y111.60 200-DMA
*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29
*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation saw USDJPY head lower taking out key
supports but Y111.98 remains in play. Thursday's losses see bears focused on
Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a
close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31). The pair was rejected above
the 55-DMA with bulls now needing a close above Y112.88 to ease bearish pressure
and above Y114.07 to reconfirm initial focus on Y114.72 Nov highs.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Initially Need Close Above Y133.11
*RES 4: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance
*RES 3: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25
*RES 2: Y133.88 High Dec 11
*RES 1: Y133.11 Hourly support Dec 14 now resistance
*PRICE: Y132.75 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.38 Hourly support Dec 18
*SUP 2: Y132.03 Low Dec 15
*SUP 3: Y131.88 100-DMA
*SUP 4: Y131.71 Low Nov 28
*COMMENTARY: The previously noted Y133.88 resistance confirmed significance with
the pair capped ahead last week and pressure returning to layers of support
Y130.59-131.86 where 100-DMA and 21-WMAs are noted. Bears still need a close
below Y131.71 to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA (Y127.79) with below Y130.59
confirming. Layers of resistance remain with bulls still needing a close above
Y133.11 to ease pressure on key supports and initially pressure Y133.88.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 55-DMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance
*RES 3: Gbp0.8886 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 2: Gbp0.8869 55-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8840 High Dec 18
*PRICE: Gbp0.8810 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Low Dec 8
*COMMENTARY: Attempts to break higher remain capped ahead of the 55-DMA with
layers of resistance Gbp0.8869-8981 key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8981 to
shift initial focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. The Gbp0.8759 level supported last week
with bears now needing a close below to return immediate pressure to Gbp0.8690.
Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on
tests of the bear channel base coming in around Gbp0.8420.
AUSSIE TECHS: 200-DMA Capping For Now, $0.7623 Support Key
*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2
*RES 2: $0.7692 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7674 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7662 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 2: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 3: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7500 saw closes above the channel top & the
pair pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs. Layers of resistance remain $0.7674-0.7791 with
bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA ($0.7791) to shift overall focus to 2017
highs. Key supports remain with bears still needing a close below $0.7623 to
ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7580 to return initial focus to
$0.7482-00 where the weekly bull channel base is noted.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Key
*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20
*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10
*RES 2: 94.219 - High Dec 12
*RES 1: 94.107 - High Dec 13
*PRICE: 93.683 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 93.610 - Hourly support Dec 18
*SUP 2: 93.282 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 3: 93.171 - Low Dec 6
*SUP 4: 93.035 - Low Dec 5
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in pressure on the 100-DMA (93.349) failing to
produce the close below needed to pressure the 92.496-604 support region. Bears
continue to look for a close below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017
lows. The bounce Friday provided bulls breathing room but a close above 94.219
is still needed to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where the
200-DMA (94.576) is noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.477 Targets 2017 High
*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27
*RES 3: 2.437 - High Nov 30
*RES 2: 2.426 - High Dec 13
*RES 1: 2.413 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: 2.394 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.380 - High Dec 15 now support
*SUP 2: 2.357 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 4: 2.301 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base has failed to produce a break lower
with focus back on 2.426-437. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.437 to
pressure 2.477 and above this level to target 2017 highs. Support layers
building is less than ideal for bears with a close below 2.380 needed to retain
pressure on 2.344-357. Below 2.344 is needed to confirm a break of the channel
base and shift initial focus to 2.273-301 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24
*RES 3: $58.60 - High Dec 12
*RES 2: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12
*RES 1: $57.46 - Hourly resistance Dec 18
*PRICE: $57.35 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $56.88 - Low Dec 18
*SUP 2: $56.48 - Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 3: $55.88 - Low Dec 7
*SUP 4: $55.10 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of the $58.99 Nov high was less than
ideal last week and resulted in a dip below the channel base. Bears look for a
close below $55.88 to confirm a break of key supports and below the 55-DMA to
shift focus back to $52.63-83 where the channel base off June lows and 100-DMA
are noted. Bulls still need a close above $57.98 to reconfirm initial focus on
$58.60-58.99 with a break targeting channel tops ($60.27-62.18).
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1249.2
*RES 4: $1284.1 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1
*RES 2: $1276.0 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $1261.6 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18
*SUP 2: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 3: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13
*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a correction back
towards layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where DMAs and bear channel top are
noted. Layers of support have accumulated with bears now needing a close below
$1256.5 to gain breathing room and below $1249.2 to shift immediate focus to
$1235.9 and overall focus to $1204.6-1214.0. Bulls need a close above $1269.9 to
add to confidence.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.