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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
21 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1924-61
*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20
*RES 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27
*RES 2: $1.1940 High Dec 1
*RES 1: $1.1924 Daily Bear channel top
*PRICE: $1.1866 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1862 Hourly resistance Dec 20 now support
*SUP 2: $1.1827 Low Dec 20
*SUP 3: $1.1805 Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 4: $1.1775 Low Dec 19
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the key $1.1690 level
provided the base for a move that sees the pair flirting with the $1.1884
resistance. Bulls now focus on the $1.1924-61 region with a close above shifting
focus to $1.2033-1.2092 2017 highs. Daily studies are well placed for gains.
Bears now need a close below $1.1827 to ease bullish pressure and see focus
return to the key $1.1690 support.
CABLE TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy
*RES 4: $1.3519 High Dec 8
*RES 3: $1.3462 High Dec 14
*RES 2: $1.3418 High Dec 18
*RES 1: $1.3378 Hourly resistance Dec 20
*PRICE: $1.3360 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3300 Low Dec 15
*SUP 2: $1.3264 55-DMA
*SUP 3: $1.3204 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $1.3128 Low Nov 15
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from around $1.3300 is struggling with the pair
looking a little offered as resistance layers build. Bears need a close below
$1.3300 to pressure $1.3204-64 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are
noted. Below the 100-DMA is needed to shift focus to $1.2992-1.3037 where the
200-DMA ($1.3009) is located. Bulls need a close above $1.3462 to gain breathing
room and above $1.3549 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs ($1.3656).
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus Returns to Y113.74-114.07
*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6
*RES 3: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High
*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 1: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*PRICE: Y113.37 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.08 High Dec 19 now support
*SUP 2: Y112.86 55-DMA
*SUP 3: Y112.49 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on dips with the marginal close
above the 55-DMA Tuesday seeing bulls initially focused on Y113.74-114.07. Bulls
look for a close above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then Y118.60 2017 highs.
Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to
Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a
close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31).
EURO-YEN TECHS: Overall Focus On Y139.02-141.05
*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015
*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015
*RES 2: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance
*RES 1: Y134.73 2017 High Dec 20
*PRICE: Y134.51 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.25 Hourly Breakout level Dec 20
*SUP 2: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 4: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 & 2+ year highs open up for a potential move targeting
monthly highs Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y134.60) is the key concern for
bulls. Layers of support are following the pair higher with bears now needing a
close below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the key
Y130.59-132.40 support region where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted.
Immediate bullish focus shifts to Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8826-56 Support Key Today
*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28
*RES 3: Gbp0.8939 100-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance
*RES 1: Gbp0.8889 Hourly resistance Dec 21
*PRICE: Gbp0.8879 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8856 Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the pair gaining traction above the 55-DMA
(Gbp0.8869) as it currently flirts with the bear channel top (Gbp0.8876). Bulls
now focus on Gbp0.8922-81 where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls need a close above
Gbp0.8981 to shift initial focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. Initial support is now
noted at Gbp0.8856 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and
below Gbp0.8826 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.
AUSSIE TECHS: 200-DMA Capping For Now, $0.7623 Support Key
*RES 4: $0.7785 - 100-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7730 - High Nov 2
*RES 1: $0.7692 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7667 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 2: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 3: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7500 sees the pair pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs.
Layers of resistance remain $0.7692-0.7785 with bulls needing a close above the
100-DMA ($0.7785) to shift overall focus to 2017 highs. Key supports remain with
bears still needing a close below $0.7623 to ease immediate bullish pressure and
below $0.7580 to return initial focus to $0.7482-00 where the weekly bull
channel base is noted.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Key
*RES 4: 94.219 - High Dec 12
*RES 3: 94.107 - High Dec 13
*RES 2: 93.775 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: 93.535 - High Dec 20
*PRICE: 93.394 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 93.163 - Low Dec 20
*SUP 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5
*SUP 3: 93.012 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: 92.604 - Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on bounces from the 100-DMA
(93.356) with the failure to take out 94.219 seeing pressure back on supports.
Bears look for a close below 93.163 to add weight to their case with a close
below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls now look for a close
above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 94.219 to reconfirm a
bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where the 200-DMA (94.502) is noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Rally Targeting 2017 High
*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15
*RES 3: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13
*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17
*RES 1: 2.536 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high)
*PRICE: 2.481 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.472 - Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 2: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 3: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a
*SUP 4: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with
the correction higher seeing a close above 2.477 shift bullish focus to
2.628-641 where 2017 & 2016 highs are situated. Daily studies remain well placed
for gains. Layers of support are building and providing bulls confidence. Bears
now look for a close below 2.423 to ease immediate bullish pressure and confirm
a correction back to 2.344-374.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Above $58.99 Targets $60.25-62.45
*RES 4: $60.25 - 200-WMA
*RES 3: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24
*RES 2: $58.60 - High Dec 12
*RES 1: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12
*PRICE: $58.07 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $57.86 - Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 2: $57.20 - Low Dec 19
*SUP 3: $56.88 - Low Dec 18
*SUP 4: $56.48 - Hourly support Dec 14
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards $55.88 now sees
bulls focused on $58.60-58.99 with a break targeting the 200-WMA and channel
tops ($60.41-62.45). Layers of support building add to bullish confidence with a
close below $57.86 now needed to ease renewed bullish pressure. A close below
$55.15 remains needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($55.47) and initially
target 52.77-54.07.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1249.2-1259.2 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $1281.0 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1
*RES 2: $1275.8 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $1267.9 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1259.2 - Low Dec 19
*SUP 2: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18
*SUP 3: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 4: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13
*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a correction back
towards layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where DMAs and bear channel top are
noted. Layers of support have accumulated with bears needing a close below
$1259.2 to gain breathing room, below $1249.2 to shift immediate focus to
$1235.9 and overall focus to $1204.6-1214.0. Bulls need a close above $1269.9 to
add to confidence.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.