MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 2: $1.1922 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $1.1901 High Dec 20

*PRICE: $1.1847 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1805 Hourly support Dec 19, 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1775 Low Dec 19 

*SUP 3: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $1.1901-61 resistance region is less than

ideal for bulls who look for a close above $1.1961 to confirm focus on tests of

2017 highs. The pair is looking a little heavy today with bears needing a close

below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690. A close below $1.1690

remains needed to shift focus to $1.1466-1.1552 where the 200-DMA and Nov low

are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 3: $1.3462 High Dec 14 

*RES 2: $1.3418 High Dec 18 

*RES 1: $1.3394 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3377 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3329 Low Dec 21 

*SUP 2: $1.3300 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3270 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3207 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from around $1.3300 is struggling with the pair now

capped by the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease pressure

on support layers and return initial focus to $1.3462 with a close above this

level to reconfirm focus on $1.3549. Bears need a close below $1.3300 to

pressure $1.3207-70 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are noted.

Below the 100-DMA is needed to shift focus to $1.2992-1.3037.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus On Y113.74-114.07

*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High 

*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 1: Y113.74 High Dec 12

*PRICE: Y113.31 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.08 High Dec 19 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.88 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y112.59 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on dips with the marginal close

above the 55-DMA Tuesday seeing bulls initially focused on Y113.74-114.07. Bulls

look for a close above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then Y118.60 2017 highs.

Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a

close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31).

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 2: Y134.88 2017 High Dec 21

*RES 1: Y134.43 Low Dec 21 now resistance

*PRICE: Y134.24 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y132.54 Hourly support Dec 18

*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2017 & 2+ year highs open up for a potential move

targeting monthly highs Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y134.66) is the key

concern for bulls. Layers of support are following the pair higher with bears

now needing a close below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back

to the key Y130.59-132.45 support region where the 100-DMA and bull channel base

are noted. Immediate bullish focus is on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8826

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8937 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8890 High Dec 21

*PRICE: Gbp0.8854 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pop above the bear channel top (Gbp0.8870) has lacked follow

through which is a concern for bulls who are currently focused on Gbp0.8922-81

where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8981 to shift initial

focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. The dip in Asia provides bears with hope but a close

below Gbp0.8826 remains needed to shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Flexing Their Muscle

*RES 4: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7783 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*PRICE: $0.7710 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7692 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55 ($0.7668) & 200-DMAs has taken its toll with the

close above the 200-DMA adding support to the bullish case. Bulls continue to

look for a close above the 100-DMA to shift overall focus to 2017 highs. Key

supports remain. Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room

and below $0.7623 to hint at a move back to $0.7482-00 with below $0.7580 to

confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 94.219 - High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 94.107 - High Dec 13 

*RES 2: 93.766 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.555 - Hourly resistance Dec 22

*PRICE: 93.392 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.163 - Low Dec 20

*SUP 2: 93.039 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*SUP 4: 92.604 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on bounces from the 100-DMA

(93.354) with the failure to take out 94.219 seeing pressure back on supports.

Bears look for a close below 93.163 to add weight to their case with a close

below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still look for a

close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 94.219 to reconfirm a

bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where the 200-DMA (94.467) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.423-472 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 1: 2.536 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high)

*PRICE: 2.481 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.472 - Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a 

*SUP 4: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with

the correction higher seeing a close above 2.477 shift bullish focus to

2.628-641 where 2017 & 2016 highs are situated. Daily studies remain well placed

for gains. Layers of support are building and providing bulls confidence. Bears

need a close below 2.472 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below 2.423 to

confirm a correction back to 2.344-376.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Above $58.99 Targets $60.25-62.59 

*RES 4: $60.48 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $60.25 - 200-WMA 

*RES 2: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 

*RES 1: $58.60 - High Dec 12

*PRICE: $58.19 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $58.08 - Hourly support Dec 21 

*SUP 2: $57.58 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $57.20 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 4: $56.88 - Low Dec 18

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards $55.88 sees bulls

focused on $58.60-58.99 with a break targeting the 200-WMA and channel tops

($60.48-62.59). Layers of support building add to bullish confidence with a

close below the 21-DMA now needed to ease renewed bullish pressure. A close

below $55.15 remains needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($55.59) and

initially target 52.77-54.07.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $1278.7 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 2: $1275.7 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1266.0 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1259.2 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18 

*SUP 3: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13 

*SUP 4: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a correction back

towards layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where DMAs and bear channel top are

noted. Layers of support have accumulated with bears needing a close below

$1259.2 to gain breathing room, below $1249.2 to shift immediate focus to

$1235.9 and overall focus to $1204.6-1214.0. Bulls need a close above $1269.9 to

add to confidence.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]