MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

27 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 2: $1.1915 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $1.1901 High Dec 20

*PRICE: $1.1871 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1807 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1775 Low Dec 19 

*SUP 3: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $1.1901-61 resistance region is less than

ideal for bulls who look for a close above $1.1961 to confirm focus on tests of

2017 highs. Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips with bears needing a

close below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690. A close below

$1.1690 remains needed to shift focus to $1.1472-1.1552 where the 200-DMA

($1.1482) and Nov low are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 3: $1.3462 High Dec 14 

*RES 2: $1.3418 High Dec 18 

*RES 1: $1.3398 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3378 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3329 Low Dec 21 

*SUP 2: $1.3300 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3280 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3218 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from around $1.3300 is struggling with the pair capped

by the 21-DMA. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease pressure on support

layers and return initial focus to $1.3462 with a close above this level to

reconfirm focus on $1.3549. Bears need a close below $1.3300 to pressure

$1.3207-80 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are noted. Below the

100-DMA is needed to shift focus to $1.2992-1.3037.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High 

*RES 3: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 2: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 1: Y113.44 High Dec 22

*PRICE: Y113.24 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.08 High Dec 19 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.92 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y112.86 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on dips last week closes above the

55-DMA seeing bulls initially focused on Y113.74-114.07. Bulls look for a close

above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then Y118.60 2017 highs. Bears still need a

close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a

close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31). 

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 2: Y134.88 2017 High Dec 21

*RES 1: Y134.55 Hourly resistance Dec 26

*PRICE: Y134.37 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y132.61 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Recent fresh 2017 & 2+ year highs opened up for a potential move

targeting monthly highs Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y134.91) is the key

concern for bulls. Layers of support followed the pair higher with bears needing

a close below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the key

Y130.59-132.61 support region where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted.

Immediate bullish focus is on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8826

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8932 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8892 High Dec 26

*PRICE: Gbp0.8867 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pops above the bear channel top (Gbp0.8855) have lacked follow

through which is a concern for bulls who are currently focused on Gbp0.8922-81

where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8981 to shift initial

focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. Layers of support remain with bears continuing to

look for a close below Gbp0.8826 to shift initial focus back to

Gbp0.8690-0.8759.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7863 - 200-WMA

*RES 2: $0.7778 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7741 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7692 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55 ($0.7665) & 200-DMAs took its toll with the

closes above the 200-DMA adding support to the bullish case. Bulls continue to

look for a close above the 100-DMA to shift overall focus to 2017 highs. Key

supports remain. Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room

and below $0.7623 to hint at a move back to $0.7482-00 with below $0.7580 to

confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 94.219 - High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 94.107 - High Dec 13 

*RES 2: 93.763 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.555 - Hourly resistance Dec 22

*PRICE: 93.270 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.163 - Low Dec 20

*SUP 2: 93.119 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*SUP 4: 92.604 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on bounces from the 100-DMA

(93.349) with the failure to take out 94.219 seeing pressure back on supports.

Bears look for a close below 93.163 to add weight to their case with a close

below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still look for a

close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 94.219 to reconfirm a

bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where the 200-DMA (95.399) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.423

*RES 4: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.534 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 1: 2.504 - High Dec 21

*PRICE: 2.476 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.459 - Low Dec 26 

*SUP 2: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a 

*SUP 4: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls remain focused on 2.628-641 where 2016 & 2017 highs are

located following the most recent bounce from the bull channel base. The 2.423

support is now seen as key. Bears look for a close below 2.423 to confirm a

correction back to 2.344-2.381 where the bull channel base is located. Bulls now

need a close above 2.504 to add support to their case for tests of 2016 & 2017

highs.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Hesitating Ahead Of 200-WMA 

*RES 4: $62.87 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low) 

*RES 3: $61.30 - Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $60.63 - Daily Bull channel top (off June low) 

*RES 1: $60.14 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $59.74 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 now support 

*SUP 2: $58.18 - Hourly support Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $57.73 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $57.20 - Low Dec 19

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards $55.88 resulted in a close

above $58.99 Tuesday with bulls firmly focused on $60.15-63 where the bull

channel top off June lows is located. Bulls look for a close above $60.63 to

initially target the bull channel top off Oct lows. Layers of support

accumulating add to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close below $58.99

to ease bullish pressure and below $56.88 to pressure the 55-DMA ($55.95).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Closes Above Channel Top

*RES 4: $1306.1 - Monthly High Oct 16 

*RES 3: $1299.1 - Monthly High Nov 27 

*RES 2: $1289.5 - Monthly High Dec 1 

*RES 1: $1286.6 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1281.5 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1272.8 - Hourly support Dec 26 

*SUP 2: $1265.5 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1259.2 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 4: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Dec lows has resulted in closes above the 55-DMA

($1275.8) and bear channel top ($1276.7) with immediate focus on $1289.5 today.

Bulls look for a close above this level to hint at a move back to the

$1306.0-1320.0 region. Daily studies have a little room to move before O/B

becomes an issue. Bears now need a close below $1272.8 to ease bullish pressure

and below $1259.2 to shift focus back to $1235.9.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]