MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.1961 Targets 2017 High

*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014

*RES 3: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 2: $1.2033 High Sept 20

*RES 1: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*PRICE: $1.1944 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1879 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $1.1810 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1775 Low Dec 19

*COMMENTARY: Bulls still need a close above $1.1961 to confirm focus on tests of

2017 highs and fresh 2017 highs to target $1.2254. Bulls take comfort in support

emerging on dips with bears needing a close below $1.1879 to ease bullish

pressure and below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690. A close

below $1.1690 remains needed to shift focus to $1.1472-1.1552 where the 200-DMA

($1.1494) and Nov low are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 3: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 2: $1.3493 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.3462 High Dec 14

*PRICE: $1.3454 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3429 High Dec 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3388 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $1.3368 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 4: $1.3329 Low Dec 21

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from around $1.3300 has received a boost with the pair

gaining traction above the 21-DMA ($1.3399) and the close above easing bearish

pressure and reconfirm overall focus on $1.3549 Nov highs. Bears now need a

close below $1.3388 to ease immediate bullish pressure and target a correction

back to $1.3286-1.3329 where the 55-DMA ($1.3286) is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Focusing On Y110.83-111.98

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.44 High Dec 22 

*RES 1: Y113.13 Low Dec 26 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.75 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.66 Hourly support Dec 28 

*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 3: Y111.64 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in consolidation below 21 & 55-DMAs and the bull

channel base. Bulls now need a close above Y113.13 to gain breathing room and

hint at a correction back to Y113.74-114.07. The marginal close below the 55-DMA

(Y112.94) confirmed a shift lower in focus with bears now targeting

Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears need a close

below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31).

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 2: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 1: Y134.98 2017 High Dec 28

*PRICE: Y134.68 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 4: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 & 2+ year highs continue, adding support for a potential

move targeting Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y135.25) & O/B studies are key

concerns for bulls. Layers of support followed the pair higher with bears

needing a close below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to

the key Y132.03-132.72 support region where the 100-DMA and bull channel base

are noted. Immediate bullish focus is on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8826 & 100-DMA Key Levels

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8928 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8893 High Dec 28

*PRICE: Gbp0.8870 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite trading above the 55-DMA (gbp0.8862) the pair remains

capped ahead of the 100-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 100-DMA to add

support to their case and confirm initial focus on Gbp0.8981-0.9048. O/B daily

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls. Layers of support

remain with bears continuing to look for a close below Gbp0.8826 to shift

initial focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7693-0.7760 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 3: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7863 - 200-WMA

*RES 1: $0.7809 - Hourly resistance Dec 28

*PRICE: $0.7792 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Despite trading above the 55-DMA (gbp0.8862) the pair remains

capped ahead of the 100-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 100-DMA to add

support to their case and confirm initial focus on Gbp0.8981-0.9048. O/B daily

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls. Layers of support

remain with bears continuing to look for a close below Gbp0.8826 to shift

initial focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 92.496

*RES 4: 93.309 - High Dec 27 

*RES 3: 93.122 - Hourly resistance Dec 27 

*RES 2: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28

*PRICE: 92.609 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.496 - Low Nov 27

*SUP 2: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*SUP 3: 91.526 - Low Oct 19 

*SUP 4: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capping recently has resulted in a break of the bull

channel base (93.173) with bears now needing a close below 92.496 to confirm a

return in focus to tests of 2017 lows. Modestly O/S daily studies are less than

ideal for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall

focus to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Focused On 2.344-398

*RES 4: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 3: 2.479 - High Dec 27 

*RES 2: 2.459 - Low Dec 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.441 - High Dec 28

*PRICE: 2.434 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.405 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.375 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.298 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the weekly bear channel top (2.534) combined

with waning momentum provided the impetus for a correction that eased bullish

pressure. Focus returned to 2.344-405 where key DMAs and the bull channel base

are noted. Bears now need a close below 2.344 to confirm breaks and initially

pressure the 200-DMA. Bulls now need a close above 2.441 to gain breathing room

and above 2.479 to shift focus higher.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Flirting with 200-WMA 

*RES 4: $63.14 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low) 

*RES 3: $61.85 - High May 13 2015 

*RES 2: $61.41 - Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $60.77 - Daily Bull channel top (off June low)

*PRICE: $60.20 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $60.01 - High Dec 26 now support 

*SUP 2: $59.33 - Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 now support 

*SUP 4: $58.18 - Hourly support Dec 22

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards $55.88 resulted in a close

above $58.99 Tuesday with the contract flirting with the 200-WMA ($60.15). Bulls

look for a close above the bull channel top off June lows to initially target

$61.85-63.14 where monthly highs and the bull channel top off Oct lows are

noted. Bears now look for a close below $59.33 to ease bullish pressure and

below the 21-DMA to pressure the 55-DMA ($56.24).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Shifts To $1306.1-1320.0

*RES 4: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 3: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 2: $1306.1 - Monthly High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $1299.1 - Monthly High Nov 27

*PRICE: $1295.8 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1286.8 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1281.5 - Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $1275.4 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1270.5 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Dec lows has resulted in closes above the 55-DMA

and bear channel top with immediate focus now on $1306.1-1320.0 following the

break of $1289.5. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top ($1297.8) are concerns

for bulls. Bears now need a close below the 100-DMA to ease immediate bullish

pressure and below the 21-DMA ($1266.4) to hint at a move back to Dec lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]