MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

3 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 2017 High

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014

*RES 1: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*PRICE: $1.2049 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2026 High Dec 29 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1981 Hourly support Dec 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1910 High Dec 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue to start the new year although hesitation ahead of

2017 highs is less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B

and the Bollinger band top ($1.2053). Bulls continue to look for a close above

the current 2017 high to initially target $1.2254. Layers of support are

accumulating but $1.1961 remains key. Bears need a close below $1.1961 to ease

bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3538

*RES 4: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4010 Low June 16 2016 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3828 Low Feb 29 2016 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20

*PRICE: $1.3512 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3567 Hourly resistance Jan 2 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3538 Hourly support Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1.3473 Hourly breakout level Dec 29 

*SUP 4: $1.3429 High Dec 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Immediate bullish focus remains on 2017 highs with a close above to

shift focus to layers of resistance $1.3828-1.4349. The Bollinger top ($1.3568)

is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through. Layers of

support are following the pair higher and adding to bullish confidence. Bears

now look for a close below $1.3538 to ease bullish pressure.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y110.83 Targets 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.44 High Dec 22 

*RES 2: Y113.13 Low Dec 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y112.46 Low Dec 29 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.30 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 2: Y111.66 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.35 Low Nov 29 

*SUP 4: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy having dipped towards the Y111.98 support

with the Y110.83-111.98 support region the current focus. Bears then need a

close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31). Layers of resistance are

accumulating and daily studies are well placed for further losses. Bulls

continue to look for a close above Y113.13 to gain breathing room and hint at a

correction back to Y113.74-114.07.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 2: Y135.96 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*PRICE: Y135.31 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.91 Low Jan 2 

*SUP 2: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2+ year highs continue, adding support for a potential move

targeting Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y135.96) & O/B studies are key concerns

for bulls. Layers of support followed the pair higher with bears needing a close

below Y134.91 to ease bullish pressure and below Y133.88 to shift focus back to

Y132.03-132.83 where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted. Immediate

bullish focus is on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-DMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8921 100-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8884 Hourly resistance Jan 3

*PRICE: Gbp0.8861 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8855 Hourly support Jan 2 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15

*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA confirmed significance with the pair capped and

rejected aggressively ahead of this level, leaving the pair looking heavy and

flirting with the 55-DMA (Gbp0.8859). Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8826 to shift initial focus

back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case.

Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to target Gbp0.8981-0.9048.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Bullish Focus On $7906

*RES 4: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 3: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 2: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7857 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $0.7809 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7696 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the recovery from Dec lows closing above the

100-DMA ($0.7775) and shifting overall focus to 2017 highs. Bulls now look for a

close above $0.7906 to add support to their case. Key supports remain with bears

needing a close below $0.7760 to gain breathing room. Bears still need a close

below the 200-DMA to shift initial focus to $0.7623 and hint at a move back to

$0.7495-00 with below $0.7580 to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Remains Heavy

*RES 4: 92.956 - Low Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 3: 92.788 - Hourly resistance Dec 28 

*RES 2: 92.518 - Hourly support Dec 29 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.080 - Low Dec 29 now resistance

*PRICE: 91.907 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 91.751 - Low Jan 2

*SUP 2: 91.526 - Low Oct 19 

*SUP 3: 91.011 - 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: 90.325 - High Dec 30 2014 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capping recently has resulted in a break of the bull

channel base (93.173) with the close below 92.496 confirming a return in focus

to tests of 2017 lows. O/S daily studies are less than ideal for bears. Bulls

now look for a close above 92.518 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above

the 55-DMA (93.677) to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall focus to

95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 3: 2.530 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 1: 2.481 - High Jan 2

*PRICE: 2.462 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.411 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.381 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year. Bulls now look for a close above 2.504 to confirm

focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs 2.629-641. Layers of support remain with

bears now needing a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a test of the 200-DMA with

below 2.344 to confirm. The Bollinger top (2.513) remains the key concern for

bulls.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1302.5

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 1: $1321.3 - Hourly resistance Jan 3

*PRICE: $1313.7 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1310.0 - Hourly support Jan 2 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 4: $1281.5 - Low Dec 27

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Dec lows has resulted in closes above the 55-DMA

and bear channel top and a pop above $1320.0 in Asia today. O/B daily studies

and the Bollinger top ($1314.4) are concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close

below Tuesday's low to ease pressure on resistance layers and below the 100-DMA

($1287.7) to hint at a deeper correction. Bulls potentially target 2017 highs

while $1302.5 supports.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Flirting with 200-WMA 

*RES 4: $63.42 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low) 

*RES 3: $62.18 - Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $61.85 - High May 13 2015 

*RES 1: $60.91 - Daily Bull channel top (off June low)

*PRICE: $60.35 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $59.82 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 2: $59.33 - Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 now support 

*SUP 4: $58.18 - Hourly support Dec 22

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards $55.88 resulted in a close

above $58.99 with the contract flirting with the 200-WMA ($60.05). Bulls look

for a close above the bull channel top off June lows to initially target

$61.85-63.42 where monthly highs and the bull channel top off Oct lows are

noted. Bears now look for a close below $59.82 to ease bullish pressure and

below the 21-DMA to pressure the 55-DMA ($56.56).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]