MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2322 To Reconfirm Bullish Bias

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2322 2018 High Jan 17

*RES 1: $1.2288 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*PRICE: $1.2261 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2220 Hourly support Jan 18 

*SUP 2: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2111 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $1.2075 Hourly resistance Jan 12a now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs

remains a concern for bulls given daily studies overdue a correction from O/B

levels. Bears now need a close below $1.2156 to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and below $1.2075 to shift focus back to $1.1850-1.1914 where key DMAs

are noted. Bulls need a close above $1.2322 to reconfirm focus on the LT bear

channel top $1.2690.

     CABLE TECHS: Below $1.3739 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $1.4612 Low June 21 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4349 Low June 20 2016 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4006 Low June 16 2016 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3942 2018 Highs Jan 17

*PRICE: $1.3914 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3885 Hourly support Jan 18 

*SUP 2: $1.3848 Hourly resistance Jan 18 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3803 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: $1.3739 Low Jan 16

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair recovers from the dip with pressure

back on 2018 highs. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.4006 to

initially target $1.4349-1.4410 where the 200-WMA is noted. O.B daily studies

remain a key concern for bulls. Layers of support are building with bears now

needing a close below $1.3848 to gain breathing room and below $1.3739 to shift

initial focus to $1.3583-1.3643 where the 21-DMA is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below Y110.68

*RES 4: Y112.31 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.74 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y111.48 High Jan 18

*PRICE: Y110.86 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.68 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 2: Y110.56 Hourly resistance Jan 16 now support 

*SUP 3: Y110.18 Hourly support Jan 17 

*SUP 4: Y109.62 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with lows continuing to

lack follow through so far this week and the bounce Wednesday easing immediate

bearish pressure. Bulls now need a close above Y111.98 to shift focus to

Y112.86-113.44 although DMAs Y112.17-50 may slow the move. In saying that, bears

now look for a close below Y110.68 to ease pressure on the 200-DMA and reconfirm

focus on tests of the bear channel base at Y109.62.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.81 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 2: Y136.55 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*PRICE: Y135.94 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.44 Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: Y135.06 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 2018 highs found support around the 21-WMA and

ahead of the 100-DMA (Y133.04) with the recovery seeing initial focus back on

2018 highs. While the 100-DMA supports overall bullish focus remains on

139.02-141.05 where monthly highs are noted. Bears still need a close back below

Y134.81 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA and 100-DMA.

Below the 100-DMA shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Focus On Gbp0.8690-0.8790

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8867 Hourly resistance Jan 17 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8854 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support Jan 10 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8811 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8790 Low Dec 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Monthly Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8880) and

rejections ahead of Gbp0.8928 resulted in a sell-off and closes below key DMAs

that sees focus back on Gbp0.8690-0.8790. Bears look for a close below Gbp0.8690

to reconfirm a bearish bias and target tests of Gbp0.8313-80 where 2017 lows are

noted. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8867 to ease renewed bearish pressure.

Above Gbp0.8928 shifts initial focus to Gbp0.8981-0.9048.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7916

*RES 4: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 3: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 2: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 1: $0.8022 - 2018 High Jan 17

*PRICE: $0.8015 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7981 - Hourly support Jan 18 

*SUP 2: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 3: $0.7916 - High Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on Wednesday's 2018 & 4mth highs which

is a concern with daily studies looking to correct from O/S and daily momentum

divergence. The break of $0.7959 lacked follow through Thursday with bears now

needing a close below $0.7916 to target a correction back to $0.7773-0.7854

where the 21 & 100-DMAs are noted. While $0.7916 supports bulls remain focused

on 2017 highs and then $0.8295 2015 highs on a close above.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 91.011-879 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 91.879 - High Jan 12 

*RES 3: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.382 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.113 - 2018 Low Jan 17

*SUP 2: 90.025 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 4: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*COMMENTARY: The failure to take out the 91.011 resistance leaves the index

looking a little heavy. Bulls need a close above 91.011 to ease bearish pressure

and above 91.879 to hint at a correction back to 92.127-93.159 where key DMAs

are clustered. Bears now need a close below 90.113 to retain overall focus on

tests of the 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly low. Correcting O/S daily studies increase

correction risk

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2016 & 2017 Highs

*RES 4: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 3: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 2: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 1: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15

*PRICE: 2.633 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.622 - Hourly support Jan 19 

*SUP 2: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.541 - Hourly support Jan 17

*COMMENTARY: Immediate bullish focus is on 2016 & 2017 highs 2.641-692 with a

close above this region to confirm focus on 2.748-821 where the daily bull

channel top situated. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (2.22 remain concerns

for bulls. The 2.571 support is key today with bears needing a close below to

ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to 2.489-522 where the

21-DMA is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Initial Focus Shifts To $60.75-62.05 

*RES 4: $65.17 - Low Dec 5 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $64.83 - 2018 High Jan 16 

*RES 2: $64.28 - High Jan 18 

*RES 1: $63.25 - Low Jan 17 now resistance

*PRICE: $63.17 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $62.53 - Hourly resistance Jan 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 3: $61.34 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $60.75 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the most recent 2018 high and

also Thursday has left the contract looking heavy with bears initially focusing

on $60.75-62.05 where the 21-DMA is located. Overall bears now need a close

below $60.75 to shift focus to $58.65-82 where the 55-DMA is noted. Correcting

O/B studies are weighing with bulls needing a close above $65.17 to reconfirm a

bullish bias targeting $69.54-73.25.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Hints At Correction Back To $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15 

*RES 1: $1333.1 - High Jan 18

*PRICE: $1330.9 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1310.9 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: Gold was rejected ahead of recent 2018 highs Wednesday with the

sell-off leaving it looking a little heavy following the break of $1326.6 that

hints at a correction initially targeting $1302.5-1305.6. Momentum studies have

corrected to neutral levels but other studies correcting from O/B weigh. Bulls

now need a close above $1344.5 to reconfirm focus on 2017 and then 2016 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]