MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

31 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2322 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 2: $1.2494 High Jan 26

*RES 1: $1.2453 High Jan 30

*PRICE: $1.2419 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2378 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 2: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 4: $1.2213 Low Jan 22

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support confirmed significance with bulls taking

comfort in the bounce Tuesday. Topside follow through has again been lacking

with bulls now needing a close above $1.2453 to reconfirm initial focus on

retests of 2018 highs and overall focus on tests of the weekly bear channel top

($1.2661). Bears look for a close below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to

$1.2092-1.2213 where the 21-DMA ($1.2205) is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.4208 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $1.4337 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: $1.4208 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PRICE: $1.4165 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4096 Hourly resistance Jan 29 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3977 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 3: $1.3914 Low Jan 23 

*SUP 4: $1.3837 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to challenge the key $1.3914 support with a close

below $1.3914 needed to shift initial focus back to $1.3720-1.3837 where the

21-DMA is noted. The recovery from $1.3977 sees initial pressure back on the

$1.4208 resistance. Bulls now need a close above $1.4208 to gain breathing room

and initially target 2018 high retests. O/B studies correcting remain a concern

for bulls.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.12

*RES 4: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y109.76 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: Y109.20 Highs Jan 29 & 30

*PRICE: Y108.81 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 4: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base

*COMMENTARY: Immediate bearish focus remains on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and

the weekly triangle base are located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base

(Y107.98) remain concerns and currently limit follow through. Support is

starting to emerge on dips, but bulls still need a close above Y110.18 to ease

bearish pressure and target a correction back to Y110.80-111.98 where key DMAs

are noted. Bears need a close below Y108.12 to add weight to their case.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, 55-DMA Supporting

*RES 4: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 3: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 2: Y135.46 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 1: Y135.24 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y135.19 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.64 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y134.07 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y133.96 Daily bull channel base (off Aug 18 low) 

*SUP 4: Y133.43 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The Y133.47-134.07 support region where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull

channel base are located confirmed significance with the pair bouncing from a

test of the 55-DMA. The 21-DMA is now capping with bulls needing a close above

to return immediate focus to 2018 highs. Bears continue to look for a close

below the 100-DMA to target Y130.33-132.03 where the 200-DMA (Y130.33) is noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Key DMAs Capping

*RES 4: Gbp0.8872 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8853 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8849 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8821 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8765 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8752 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8719 Hourly support Jan 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8649 Low May 8

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort as the recovery from 2018 lows remains capped

ahead of key DMAs and the daily bear channel top. Bulls need a close above the

bear channel top to end bearish hopes and shift focus to layers of resistance

Gbp0.8928-0.9048. The pair remains heavy following the sell-off Tuesday with

bears now needing a close below Gbp0.8752 to reconfirm initial focus on 2018

lows and then the 100-WMA (Gbp0.8578) on a close below. 

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.8041 & 0.8162 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8144 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26

*RES 1: $0.8114 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: $0.8074 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8041 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 2: $0.8002 - Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 4: $0.7961 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 remains a concern given daily

studies looking to correct from O/B and lower daily highs. Bulls look for a

close above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542 where the weekly bull

channel top ($0.8456) is noted. Layers of support remain with bears needing a

close below $0.8040 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7916 to

target $0.7729-0.7802 where key DMAs are clustered.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113

*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 1: 89.637 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: 89.066 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 88.912 - Low Jan 30

*SUP 2: 88.723 - Low Jan 26

*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears who

are currently focused on 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly lows. Layers of resistance

remain and weigh. Bulls still need a close above 90.113 to gain breathing room

and above 91.011 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (90.706) and shift focus to

92.341-888 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below 88.438 to add

weight to their case.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Initial Focus On 2.748-912

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.797 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014

*PRICE: 2.709 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.690 - Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+ year highs

with immediate bullish focus on 2.748-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014 highs

(Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.754) is a concern and currently limits follow

through. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.676

to ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to 2.571-609

where key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Below $62.78 To Target $58.82-60.75 

*RES 4: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $65.68 - Hourly resistance Jan 29 

*RES 2: $65.19 - Hourly resistance Jan 30 

*RES 1: $64.67 - Hourly support Jan 30 now resistance

*PRICE: $63.98 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $63.58 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 3: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $60.75 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: H18 remains heavy with correcting O/B daily studies seen weighing.

The close below $64.87 eases bullish pressure with bears now looking for a close

below $62.78 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially focus on

$58.82-60.75 where the 55-DMA ($59.90) is found. Resistance layers are building

and weighing also, with bulls now needing a close above $65.68 to reconfirm

focus on $69.54 (Dec 1 2014 high).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1331.2 Targets $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1348.9 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: $1340.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 2: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's 2018 high remains

a concern for bulls and leaves gold looking a little heavy. Daily studies

correcting are weighing. Bears now need a close below $1331.2 to shift initial

focus to $1302.5-1305.6. Initial resistance is noted at $1348.9 but bulls need a

close above $1352.3 to gain breathing room and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$ $1391.8-1433.3.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]