MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

7 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Sell-Off Lacks Follow Through

*RES 4: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 3: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 2: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*RES 1: $1.2433 High Feb 6

*PRICE: $1.2387 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2358 Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2313 Low Feb 6 

*SUP 3: $1.2305 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2213 Low Jan 22

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip below $1.2322 with the pair

finding support ahead of the 21-DMA. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to

confirm a shift in focus to $1.2092-1.2156. Daily studies correcting from O/B

remain the key concern for bulls. The $1.2433 resistance is key today. Bulls

need a close above this level to gain breathing room and to reconfirm focus on

tests of the weekly bear channel top ($1.2670).

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3999 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4081 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3999 High Feb 6

*PRICE: $1.3966 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3935 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.3834 Low Feb 6 

*SUP 3: $1.3720 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 4: $1.3656 High Sept 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on Tuesday's sell-off with bulls now

needing a close above $1.3999 to gain breathing room. The pair currently flirts

with the 21-DMA ($1.3958). Above the 200-WMA ($1.4371) remains need to target

$1.5018. Bears now look for a close below $1.3834 to add weight to the case for

tests of $1.3585-1.3720 where the 55-DMA ($1.3629) is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.12

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 2: Y110.04 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.71 Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: Y109.28 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.87 Hourly support Feb 6 Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 4: Y108.12 Low Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining capped around the 21-DMA bears have failed to

manage the break of Y108.12 needed to confirm initial focus on Y107.31-76 where

the rising weekly triangle base and 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies

lingering around O/S levels are less than ideal. Bulls now need a close above

the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to initially target

Y111.22-112.56 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y135.95

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y137.58 High Aug 26 2015

*RES 2: Y137.22 High Feb 5

*RES 1: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance

*PRICE: Y135.40 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.11 Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 2: Y134.51 Hourly support Feb 6a 

*SUP 3: Y133.82 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 4: Y133.63 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support continues to emerge ahead of the 100-DMA and 21-WMA

(Y133.83) on dips with bears needing a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move

back to the 200-DMA (Y130.62) with below Y133.04 to confirm. Bulls now need a

close above Y135.95 to ease pressure on key supports and return focus to

Y137.22-58 where 2018 highs are found. Above Y137.58 is now needed to confirm

focus on monthly highs Y139.02-141.05 last seen in 2015 are found.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8928

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8921 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8909 High Feb 6

*PRICE: Gbp0.8870 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8849 Hourly support Feb 5 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8815 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8776 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking Tuesday on the break of the bear

channel top. Bulls now look for a close above Gbp0.8928 to end bearish hopes and

initially target Gbp0.9048. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls with

potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to

ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8776 to shift initial focus back to 2018

lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On $0.7229-0.7802

*RES 4: $0.8046 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*RES 3: $0.7981 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 1: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: $0.7878 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7869 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 2: $0.7832 - Low Feb 6, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 4: $0.7794 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 took its toll with bearish focus

currently on the $0.7729-0.7802 region where key DMAs are clustered. The

Bollinger base is the key concern with support emerging on dips. Bulls now need

a close above $0.7911 to gain breathing room now and above the 21-DMA to shift

focus back to 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below $0.7729 confirm breaks of

DMA & WMAS & to shift focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 90.113 Now Resistance Key

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 1: 90.030 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 89.601 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*SUP 2: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below

needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base

(87.401). Bulls now need a close above 90.113 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA &

shift initial focus to 91.011-751. Bears now need a close below 89.373 to ease

renewed bullish pressure and return initial focus to 88.438 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bounces From 21-DMA

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.885 - 2018 High Feb 6 

*RES 2: 2.820 - Hourly support Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.807 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: 2.785 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 2: 2.691 - Hourly support Feb 6a 

*SUP 3: 2.662 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield

bouncing from around the 21-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below 2.585

to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to 2.489-522 where the 55-DMA

(2.500) and bull channel base are situated. The recovery sees focus back on

2.820 with bulls needing a close above 2.820 to shift initial focus back to

2.885-912 and overall focus to 3.041.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above $64.47 

*RES 4: $65.76 - Hourly resistance Feb 2 

*RES 3: $65.40 - High Feb 5 

*RES 2: $64.47 - Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.38 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $63.89 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 3: $60.75 - High Jan 2 now support 

*SUP 4: $60.66 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs are a concern for bulls and

risk a correction back to the $60.66-62.05 region where the 55-DMA is located.

Bears continue to look for a close below $62.78 to add weight to their case.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close

above $64.47 to ease bearish pressure and above $65.43 to reconfirm initial

focus on 2018 highs ($66.66).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Aggressively Rejected Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $1329.4 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.9 - Low Feb 6 

*SUP 2: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Bounces remain capped ahead of $1352.3 with bulls needing a close

above this level to regain the upper hand and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$1391.8-1433.3. Layers of support are starting to build with bears now needing a

close below $1315.4 to reconfirm focus on $1302.5-1305.6. Daily studies have

room to move before O/S is an issue.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]