MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Shifts To $1.2092-1.2156

*RES 4: $1.2433 High Feb 6

*RES 3: $1.2406 High Feb 7

*RES 2: $1.2363 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2314 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2260 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2245 Low Feb 7 

*SUP 2: $1.2213 Low Jan 22 

*SUP 3: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA resulted in a close below and confirms

bearish focus on $1.2092-1.2156. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

lower. Layers of resistance accumulating also adds weight to the bearish case.

Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above

$1.2433 to return focus to 2018 highs and then the weekly bear channel top

($1.2670).

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3999 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4081 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3999 High Feb 6

*PRICE: $1.3879 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3834 Low Feb 6 

*SUP 2: $1.3720 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3656 High Sept 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3640 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on Tuesday's sell-off with bulls still

needing a close above $1.3999 to gain breathing room. The pair remains heavy

with immediate focus on the break of $1.3834 to add weight to the case for tests

of $1.3585-1.3720 where the 55-DMA ($1.3640) is located. Overall the 200-WMA

($1.4371) remains key resistance with a close above needed to target ($1.5018).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.93-110.47 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 2: Y109.93 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.71 Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: Y109.52 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.87 Hourly support Feb 6 Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 4: Y108.12 Low Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining capped around the 21-DMA bears have failed to

manage the break of Y108.12 needed to confirm initial focus on Y107.31-76 where

the rising weekly triangle base and 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies

correcting from O/S levels are less than ideal. Bulls still need a close above

the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to initially target

Y111.22-112.53 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.04-76 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y137.22 High Feb 5

*RES 3: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 2: Y135.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: Y134.58 Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: Y134.31 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.76 21-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y133.61 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y133.04 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: Y132.03 Monthly Low Dec 13

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs sees the pair again pressuring

the 21-WMA and 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a

move back to the 200-DMA (Y130.73) and below Y133.04 to confirm. Bulls still

need a close above Y135.95 to return focus to Y137.22-58 where 2018 highs are

found. Above Y137.58 remains needed to confirm focus on monthly highs

Y139.02-141.05 last seen in 2015 are found.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8928 Resistance Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8915 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8909 High Feb 6 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8862 Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8834 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8813 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8776 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking Tuesday on the break of the bear

channel top. Bulls now look for a close above Gbp0.8928 to end bearish hopes and

initially target Gbp0.9048. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls with

potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to

ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8776 to shift initial focus back to 2018

lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7729 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $0.7976 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 2: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*RES 1: $0.7832 - Low Feb 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7809 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: $0.7796 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7771 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7752 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 took its toll with bearish focus

currently on the $0.7729-0.7802 region where key DMAs are clustered. The

Bollinger base ($0.7812) is the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close

above $0.7911 to gain breathing room now and above the 21-DMA to shift focus

back to 2018 highs. Bears now need a close below $0.7729 confirm breaks of DMA &

WMAS & to shift focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Shifts To 91.011-751

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.372 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.956 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.720 - Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support

*SUP 3: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*SUP 4: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below

needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base

(87.401). The close above 90.113 eases bearish pressure and shifts focus to

91.011-751. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 89.373 to return initial focus

to 88.438 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.741

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 1: 2.885 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: 2.815 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.807 - High Feb 6 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.691 - Hourly support Feb 6a 

*SUP 4: 2.677 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield

bouncing from around the 21-DMA. Immediate focus has returned to the 2.885-912

with overall focus on 2014 highs. Bears now need a close below 2.741 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and to shift initial focus back to 2.648-691 where

the 21-DMA is located. O/B daily studies looking to correct remain the key

concern for bulls.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $64.47 - Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: $64.20 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: $61.96 - Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: $61.62 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.75 - High Jan 2 now support 

*SUP 2: $60.70 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $58.82 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $57.43 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs are a concern for bulls

with the break lower Wednesday seeing immediate focus on the 55-DMA. Bears look

for a close below the 55-DMA to shift focus to the $55.30-58.82 region where the

100-DMA is noted. Layers of resistance left in the wake are accumulating and

adding to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close above $62.78 to ease

bearish pressure and above $64.47 to target 2018 highs.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1301.5-1305.9

*RES 4: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 3: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Feb 7 

*RES 1: $1319.8 - Low Feb 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $1312.9 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1301.5 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1292.8 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs continues with immediate focus

now on $1301.5-1305.9 where the 55-DMA is located. Overall bears look for a

close below the 200-DMA ($1279.9) to confirm focus on Dec lows ($1235.9) & the

200-WMA ($1232.3). Bulls now look for a close above $1332.6 to ease bearish

pressure and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]