Free Trial

MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.2406 High Feb 7
*RES 3: $1.2363 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2329 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1.2313 Low Feb 6 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.2303 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2280 Hourly support Feb 13 
*SUP 2: $1.2233 Low Feb 12 
*SUP 3: $1.2204 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bears maintain their focus on $1.2092-1.2156. Daily studies
approaching O/S are a concern for bears. In saying that, bulls continue to look
for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $1.2433 to return
focus to 2018 highs and then the weekly bear channel top ($1.2665). Overall
bears need a close below $1.1914 2018 lows to confirm a break of the 100-DMA
($1.1922) & shift focus back to $1.1489-1.1552.
     CABLE TECHS: Bears Targeting 55-DMA
*RES 4: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.4081 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.3994 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $1.3875 High Feb 12
*PRICE: $1.3847 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3830 Hourly support Feb 13 
*SUP 2: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 
*SUP 3: $1.3763 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: $1.3720 Low Jan 15
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capped Friday with the sell-off seeing bears currently
focused on tests of the $1.3656-66 region where the 55-DMA is situated. Bears
need a close below $1.3656 to target $1.3419-60 where the bull channel base off
Mar 2017 lows is located. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease
bearish pressure and above $1.4081 to shift focus back to 2018 highs.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.78-110.47 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: Y110.47 High Feb 2 
*RES 3: Y109.78 High Feb 8 
*RES 2: Y109.29 Hourly resistance Feb 9 
*RES 1: Y108.94 Hourly Feb 12
*PRICE: Y108.37 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.03 2018 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 2: Y107.86 Weekly Triangle base 
*SUP 3: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8 
*SUP 4: Y106.48 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: The pair remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA last week resulting in
fresh 2018 & 5mth lows. The lack of downside follow through is less than ideal
with bears focused on Y107.31-86. The Y109.78 resistance is key this week. Bulls
need a close above to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.57) and bear channel
top (Y109.39) to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to initially target
Y111.22-112.49 where key DMAs and a bear channel top are noted.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.15-79 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: Y135.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 3: Y134.79 High Feb 8
*RES 2: Y134.48 55-DMA
*RES 1: Y134.15 Hourly resistance Feb 9
*PRICE: Y133.32 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.89 Low Feb 12 
*SUP 2: Y132.61 Hourly support Feb 9 
*SUP 3: Y131.96 2018 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on last week's 2018 lows has seen
support start to emerge on dips with the pair flirting with the 100-DMA
(Y133.62). Bulls look for a close above Y134.15 to gain breathing room. A close
above Y134.79 is needed to hint at a shift higher in focus with above Y135.95 to
initially target 2018 highs (Y137.50). While Y134.79 caps immediate focus
remains on Y130.59-131.15 where monthly lows and 200-DMA are noted.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Still Need Close Above Gbp0.8928
*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8909 High Feb 6
*PRICE: Gbp0.8883 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8872 Hourly support Feb 12 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8843 Hourly support Feb 9 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8821 Hourly resistance Feb 8 now support 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8867) that
adds support to the bullish case. In saying that bulls still need a close above
Gbp0.8928 to end bearish hopes and initially target Gbp0.9013-48. Layers of
support building add to bullish confidence. Bears continue to look for a close
below Gbp0.8821 to ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8776 to shift focus back
to Gbp0.8685-0.8730.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7808-43 Support Now Key
*RES 4: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7963 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7954 - High Feb 5
*RES 1: $0.7911 - High Feb 6
*PRICE: $0.7863 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7843 - High Feb 8 now support 
*SUP 2: $0.7808 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: $0.7758 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from last week's 200-DMA test
when combined with daily studies correcting from O/S. Initial support is noted
at $0.7843 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below the
55-DMA to retain focus on $0.7729-58. Bears need a close below $0.7729 confirm
breaks of DMA & WMAS & to shift focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls need a
close above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 2018 highs.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 
*RES 3: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 
*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 
*RES 1: 90.567 - High Feb 8
*PRICE: 90.068 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 90.013 - Low Feb 8
*SUP 2: 89.814 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 89.720 - Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support
*SUP 4: 89.373 - Low Feb 6
*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below
needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base
(87.177). The close above 90.113 eased bearish pressure and shifted focus to
91.011-751. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below
89.373 to return initial focus to 88.438 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above
90.567 to reignite bullish momentum.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Key Concern
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 3: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 
*RES 2: 2.902 - 2018 High Feb 12 
*RES 1: 2.873 - Hourly support Feb 12 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.849 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.828 - Low Feb 12 
*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 
*SUP 3: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 
*SUP 4: 2.722 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield
recovering from around the 21-DMA last week to trade at fresh 2018 & 4 year
highs. Topside follow through has been lacking but bulls now focus attention on
the key 3.041 2014 highs. Support layers are building with bears needing a close
below 2.828 to gain breathing room and below 2.741 to shift initial focus back
to 2.691-722 where the 21-DMA is located.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) 55-DMA Resistance Key Today 
*RES 4: $63.35 - 21-DMA 
*RES 3: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 
*RES 2: $61.82 - High Feb 8 
*RES 1: $60.68 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: $59.48 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $59.01 - Low Feb 12 
*SUP 2: $58.55 - Hourly support Feb 9 
*SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: $57.60 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs resulted in a sell-off that
sees immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to add
weight to the case for a move then targeting the 200-DMA ($53.20) although the
200-WMA ($55.97) may slow the move. Bulls continue to look for a close above the
55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1332.6 To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 
*RES 3: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Feb 7 
*RES 1: $1326.2 - High Feb 12
*PRICE: $1323.8 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1316.5 - Hourly support Feb 12 
*SUP 2: $1314.1 - Low Feb 12 
*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 
*SUP 4: $1303.6 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2018 highs saw a dip back towards
$1302.5-1305.9 where the 55-DMA is located only to bounce aggressively which is
less than ideal for bears. Bulls still need a close above $1332.6 to shift focus
back to 2018 highs and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3. Bears
need a close below the 55-DMA to add weight the case for a test of the 200-DMA
($1281.3).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_ACTIVE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); });