MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2406 High Feb 7

*RES 3: $1.2363 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2329 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2313 Low Feb 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2303 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2280 Hourly support Feb 13 

*SUP 2: $1.2233 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 3: $1.2204 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears maintain their focus on $1.2092-1.2156. Daily studies

approaching O/S are a concern for bears. In saying that, bulls continue to look

for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $1.2433 to return

focus to 2018 highs and then the weekly bear channel top ($1.2665). Overall

bears need a close below $1.1914 2018 lows to confirm a break of the 100-DMA

($1.1922) & shift focus back to $1.1489-1.1552.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Targeting 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4081 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3994 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3875 High Feb 12

*PRICE: $1.3847 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3830 Hourly support Feb 13 

*SUP 2: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 3: $1.3763 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: $1.3720 Low Jan 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capped Friday with the sell-off seeing bears currently

focused on tests of the $1.3656-66 region where the 55-DMA is situated. Bears

need a close below $1.3656 to target $1.3419-60 where the bull channel base off

Mar 2017 lows is located. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above $1.4081 to shift focus back to 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.78-110.47 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 3: Y109.78 High Feb 8 

*RES 2: Y109.29 Hourly resistance Feb 9 

*RES 1: Y108.94 Hourly Feb 12

*PRICE: Y108.37 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.03 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: Y107.86 Weekly Triangle base 

*SUP 3: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: Y106.48 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The pair remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA last week resulting in

fresh 2018 & 5mth lows. The lack of downside follow through is less than ideal

with bears focused on Y107.31-86. The Y109.78 resistance is key this week. Bulls

need a close above to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.57) and bear channel

top (Y109.39) to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to initially target

Y111.22-112.49 where key DMAs and a bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.15-79 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y135.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 2: Y134.48 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y134.15 Hourly resistance Feb 9

*PRICE: Y133.32 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.89 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 2: Y132.61 Hourly support Feb 9 

*SUP 3: Y131.96 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on last week's 2018 lows has seen

support start to emerge on dips with the pair flirting with the 100-DMA

(Y133.62). Bulls look for a close above Y134.15 to gain breathing room. A close

above Y134.79 is needed to hint at a shift higher in focus with above Y135.95 to

initially target 2018 highs (Y137.50). While Y134.79 caps immediate focus

remains on Y130.59-131.15 where monthly lows and 200-DMA are noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Still Need Close Above Gbp0.8928

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8909 High Feb 6

*PRICE: Gbp0.8883 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8872 Hourly support Feb 12 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8843 Hourly support Feb 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8821 Hourly resistance Feb 8 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8867) that

adds support to the bullish case. In saying that bulls still need a close above

Gbp0.8928 to end bearish hopes and initially target Gbp0.9013-48. Layers of

support building add to bullish confidence. Bears continue to look for a close

below Gbp0.8821 to ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8776 to shift focus back

to Gbp0.8685-0.8730.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7808-43 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7963 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 1: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: $0.7863 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7843 - High Feb 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7808 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7758 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from last week's 200-DMA test

when combined with daily studies correcting from O/S. Initial support is noted

at $0.7843 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below the

55-DMA to retain focus on $0.7729-58. Bears need a close below $0.7729 confirm

breaks of DMA & WMAS & to shift focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls need a

close above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 2018 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.567 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: 90.068 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.013 - Low Feb 8

*SUP 2: 89.814 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 89.720 - Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support

*SUP 4: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below

needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base

(87.177). The close above 90.113 eased bearish pressure and shifted focus to

91.011-751. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below

89.373 to return initial focus to 88.438 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above

90.567 to reignite bullish momentum.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Key Concern

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 2: 2.902 - 2018 High Feb 12 

*RES 1: 2.873 - Hourly support Feb 12 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.849 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.828 - Low Feb 12 

*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 4: 2.722 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield

recovering from around the 21-DMA last week to trade at fresh 2018 & 4 year

highs. Topside follow through has been lacking but bulls now focus attention on

the key 3.041 2014 highs. Support layers are building with bears needing a close

below 2.828 to gain breathing room and below 2.741 to shift initial focus back

to 2.691-722 where the 21-DMA is located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) 55-DMA Resistance Key Today 

*RES 4: $63.35 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 2: $61.82 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: $60.68 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $59.48 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $59.01 - Low Feb 12 

*SUP 2: $58.55 - Hourly support Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: $57.60 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs resulted in a sell-off that

sees immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to add

weight to the case for a move then targeting the 200-DMA ($53.20) although the

200-WMA ($55.97) may slow the move. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1332.6 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 3: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Feb 7 

*RES 1: $1326.2 - High Feb 12

*PRICE: $1323.8 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1316.5 - Hourly support Feb 12 

*SUP 2: $1314.1 - Low Feb 12 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1303.6 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2018 highs saw a dip back towards

$1302.5-1305.9 where the 55-DMA is located only to bounce aggressively which is

less than ideal for bears. Bulls still need a close above $1332.6 to shift focus

back to 2018 highs and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3. Bears

need a close below the 55-DMA to add weight the case for a test of the 200-DMA

($1281.3).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]