MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2433 To Initially Target 2018 High

*RES 4: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 3: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 2: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*RES 1: $1.2433 High Feb 6

*PRICE: $1.2379 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2371 High Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2308 Hourly resistance Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2280 Hourly support Feb 13 

*SUP 4: $1.2233 Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low saw a close above the 21-DMA

($1.2336) providing bulls breathing room with a close above $1.2433 now needed

to return focus to 2018 highs and then the weekly bear channel top ($1.2665).

Daily studies correcting from modestly O/S levels add to bullish confidence.

Bears now need a close below $1.2308 to signal a false break of the 21-DMA and

return initial focus to $1.2204.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.4002-81 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.4188 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4081 Hourly support Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4002 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3923 High Feb 13

*PRICE: $1.3900 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3880 Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1.3830 Hourly support Feb 13 

*SUP 3: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 4: $1.3763 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capped Friday with the sell-off seeing bears currently

focused on tests of the $1.3656-66 region where the 55-DMA is situated. Bears

need a close below $1.3656 to target $1.3419-60 where the bull channel base off

Mar 2017 lows is located. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above $1.4081 to shift focus back to 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Break Of Y107.31 Opens Up For 2016 Low Test

*RES 4: Y108.94 High Feb 12 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.41 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y107.12 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.82 2018 Low Sept 14, Hourly Support 

*SUP 2: Y106.33 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: Y105.89 High Nov 9 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off now sees the pair hesitating ahead of the 2017 low as

layers of resistance accumulate and weigh. Bears need a close below Y107.31 to

confirm a break of the LT rising TL off 2012 lows coming in around Y107.87

today. Below 2017 lows then shifts overall focus to 2016 lows at Y98.08. Bulls

now look for a close above Y108.42 to ease bearish pressure and above Y109.79 to

confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.54) and bear channel top.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 3: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 2: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.95 Hourly support Feb 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.56 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.96 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 3: Y130.91 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from 2018 lows bulls have failed to gain

traction above the 100-DMA (Y133.63). Bulls now look for a close above the

55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Y135.95 to initially target 2018 highs

(Y137.50). While the 55-DMA caps immediate focus remains on Y130.59-131.15 where

monthly lows and 200-DMA are noted with a close below Y131.96 to add weight to

their case. Daily studies lingering at O/S levels are the key concern for bears.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.8928 Targets Gbp0.9013-48

*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12

*PRICE: Gbp0.8905 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8885 Hourly support Feb 13 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8841 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8821 Hourly resistance Feb 8 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in closes above the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8869) that

adds support to the bullish case. In saying that bulls still need a close above

Gbp0.8928 to end bearish hopes and initially target Gbp0.9013-48. Layers of

support building add to bullish confidence. Bears continue to look for a close

below Gbp0.8821 to ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8776 to shift focus back

to Gbp0.8685-0.8730.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7959 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 1: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: $0.7875 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7847 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $0.7825 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 3: $0.7814 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7761 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from last week's 200-DMA test

when combined with daily studies correcting from O/S. Bears now need a close

below the 55-DMA to retain focus on $0.7729-58 where the 200-DMA is noted.

Overall below $0.7729 confirms breaks of DMA & WMAS & shifts focus back to

$0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls need a close above $0.7911 to hint at a move back to

2018 highs with above $0.7985 to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Back On 89.373

*RES 4: 90.177 - High Feb 13 

*RES 3: 90.013 - Low Feb 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 89.751 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 89.846 - Hourly resistance Feb 13

*PRICE: 89.437 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*SUP 2: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy having failed to break above last week's

highs with immediate focus having returned to the 89.373 support. Bears need a

close below this level to reconfirm immediate focus on 2018 lows and then the

weekly bear channel base (87.202). Bulls now need a close above 90.177 to gain

breathing room and above 90.567 to hint at a move to 91.526-751. Correcting

daily studies add weight to the bearish case.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Looking Very Offered

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.902 - 2018 High Feb 12 

*RES 2: 2.873 - Hourly support Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.853 - Hourly resistance Feb 13

*PRICE: 2.813 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.734 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.712 - Daily Bull channel top

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on recent 2018 & 4yr highs has

left the yield looking a little heavy with correcting very O/B daily studies

seen weighing. The 2.741-786 support region is key today. Bears need a close

below 2.741 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.648 to shift initial focus to

2.585-609. Bulls need a close above 2.873 to gain breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) 55 & 100-DMAs Key 

*RES 4: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $61.82 - High Feb 8 

*RES 2: $60.69 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $59.53 - High Feb 13

*PRICE: $59.04 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $57.88 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: $57.67 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $55.97 - 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $55.37 - Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs resulted in a sell-off that

sees immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to add

weight to the case for a move then targeting the 200-DMA ($53.20) although the

200-WMA ($55.97) may slow the move. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Flirting With 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $1334.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.9 - High Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 2: $1321.3 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 3: $1316.5 - Hourly support Feb 12 

*SUP 4: $1314.1 - Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards the 55-DMA sees gold

flirting with the 21-DMA ($1334.6) as correcting O/S daily studies add support.

Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 2018 highs and above

$1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3. Bears now need a close below $1330.8

to ease pressure on key resistance layers and below the $1321.3 to retain focus

on the 55-DMA ($1304.5).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]