MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2340

*RES 4: $1.2639 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2489 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*PRICE: $1.2401 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2384 Hourly support Mar 13 

*SUP 2: $1.2340 Hourly support Mar 13a 

*SUP 3: $1.2313 Low Mar 13 

*SUP 4: $1.2271 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: The pair stalled on approach to the weekly bear channel top

($1.2639) off 2008 highs in past weeks. Bulls take comfort in support emerging

on dips back towards the 55-DMA with the close above $1.2364 shifting initial

focus to $1.2446 and bulls needing a close above to reconfirm focus on

$1.2555-1.2639 where 2018 highs and the LT bear channel top are situated. Bears

need a close below $1.2340 to see focus back on the 55-DMA.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Target $1.4150 While 21-DMA Supports

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1.3997 High Feb 27

*PRICE: $1.3983 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3919 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3865 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3836 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above $1.3940 confirmed a break of the 21-DMA ($1.3919)

with bullish focus shifting to tests of the $1.4150 resistance. Daily studies

are well placed for gains although the Bollinger top at $1.4094 may limit follow

through. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure

and below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to $1.3710-54 where Mar lows so far are

noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.55 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: Y107.29 High Mar 13

*PRICE: Y106.45 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.13 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 2: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 3: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on the break of the bear channel top off

2018 highs and Y107.19 leaving the pair looking a little offered. Bears now need

a close below Y106.13 to reconfirm initial focus on Y105.22 and overall focus on

Y98.95-101.15. Bollinger bands continue to narrow which hints at a break out in

the near future. Bulls now need a close above Y107.29 to shift initial focus to

Y108.03-42 with above this region to hint at a move back to Y109.79-110.47.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.42 Support Now Key

*RES 4: Y133.36 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.17 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*PRICE: Y132.01 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.85 Hourly support Mar 13 

*SUP 2: Y131.42 Hourly resistance Mar 13a now support 

*SUP 3: Y130.95 Low Mar 12 

*SUP 4: Y130.49 Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above 21 (Y131.58) & 200 (Y131.63)

DMAs that sees focus shift to the Y133.05-134.16 region where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. Support layers have followed the pair higher adding to bullish

confidence. Bears now look for a close below Y131.42 to ease bullish pressure

and below Y130.49 to shift initial focus back to tests of 2018 lows (Y129.33).

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8892 200-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8870 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8846 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Monthly Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs continues to find support at

the 55-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to shift focus

back to Gbp0.8685-0.8769 where monthly and 2018 lows are noted. Daily studies

are well placed for a fresh leg lower. The Gbp0.8904 resistance remains key.

Bulls need a close above to confirm a break of the 200-DMA, gain breathing room

and retain focus on Gbp0.9013-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of Falling TL Off 2018 High

*RES 4: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 3: $0.7935 - High Feb 19

*RES 2: $0.7919 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 1: $0.7897 - High Mar 13

*PRICE: $0.7871 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7840 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7773 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 55-DMA ($0.7888) has lacked follow through with

the pair rejected ahead of the falling daily TL off 2018 highs. Bulls now look

for a close above $0.7935 to confirm a break of the TL and above $0.7989 to

shift overall focus to $0.8135-62 where 2015 & 2018 highs are situated. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below

the 100-DMA to return pressure to $0.7694-0.7710.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 89.407 To Target 2018 Lows

*RES 4: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 3: 90.315 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 90.187 - High Mar 12 

*RES 1: 89.766 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 89.636 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.825 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA remains a concern for bulls who now

need a close above 90.420 to confirm a break and shift initial focus to 91.011.

A close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751-944 where the 100-DMA is noted.

The 89.407 support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm

traction below the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to

88.253 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Dominate While 2.925 Caps

*RES 4: 2.937 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 1: 2.883 - High Mar 13

*PRICE: 2.832 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.830 - Low Mar 13 

*SUP 2: 2.815 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The yield is looking a little heavy with the recovery from 2.793

likely to have come to an end. Bulls now need a close above 2.925 to regain the

upper hand and above 2.957 to return focus to 3.041 2014 highs. In saying that,

the 2.758 support remains key. Bears need a close below this level to end

bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.696-716 where the 55-DMA is

noted. Overall focus shifts to 2.609-648.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Hesitating Around 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 3: $62.22 - High Mar 12 

*RES 2: $62.03 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $61.01 - Hourly resistance Mar 13

*PRICE: $60.83 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.29 - Low Mar 13 

*SUP 2: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: $59.33 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.18 - High Feb 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing from the $59.18-91 support region last week where

the 100-DMA and bull channel base ($59.47) are located, failure to gain traction

above the 55-DMA is a concern for bulls who are focused on $63.05-64.07 this

week. Overall a close above $64.07 remains needed to return focus to

$66.02-68.21. Bears need a close below $59.18 to hint at a move back to

$54.10-55.90 with below $57.60 to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, Bounces Continue

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1329.6 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1328.2 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1303.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in bounces from $1312.9 that see pressure back

on the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room

whereas a close above $1351.3 remains needed to initially focus on

$1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Bears need a close below $1312.9 to

confirm a return in focus to $1289.1-1303.4 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]