MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

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     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2323

*RES 4: $1.2627 LT Bear channel top off 2008 high

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2424 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2412 High Mar 14

*PRICE: $1.2352 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2323 Hourly support Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $1.2296 Hourly resistance Mar 21 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $1.2161 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $1.2240 sees the pair flirting with the falling

TL ($1.2361) off 2018 highs. The $1.2412-46 resistance region where the

Bollinger top is noted remains key. Bulls need a close above $1.2446 to confirm

focus on $1.2555-2627 where the LT bear channel top off 2008 highs is found.

Layers of support emerging on the hourlies is a concern for bears who need a

close below $1.2323 to ease bullish pressure.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.4087

*RES 4: $1.5018 2016 High June 24 

*RES 3: $1.4573 Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.4349 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $1.4286 High Jan 26, 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1.4157 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4127 Hourly support Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $1.4087 High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3984 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $1.3821 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA has provided the base for a rally to fresh 2mth highs

with bulls now focused on the $1.4286-1.4349 region where 2018 highs are

located. The Bollinger top ($1.4129) is the key concern for bulls. The

$1.4087-1.4127 support region is now key. Bears need a close below this region

to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to $1.3783-1.3980 where 21

& 55-DMAs are located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y105.22 Confirms Focus On Y99.08-101.15

*RES 4: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 2: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 1: Y105.88 Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance

*PRICE: Y105.61 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 3: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016 

*SUP 4: Y99.08  2016 Low June 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y106.75-107.29 has taken its toll with the pair

heading back towards 2018 lows. The Bollinger base (Y105.56) remains the key

concern for bears who look for a close below 2018 lows to reconfirm overall

focus on Y99.08-101.15. Daily studies are well placed for losses. Bulls continue

to look for a close above Y106.75 to ease bearish pressure and above Y107.29 to

shift initial focus to Y108.03-42 with the 55-DMA at Y108.33.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y131.84 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.33 Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: Y130.72 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.19 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: Y129.91 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y129.48 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: The rejection at the 200-DMA and bear channel top off 2018 highs

Tuesday leaves the pair looking heavy with focus back on the Y129.07-48 support

region where 55 & 200-WMAs and the 2018 low are situated. Bears need a close

below the 55-WMA to target Y125.80-127.54. The Bollinger base is the key concern

having limited follow through. Bulls now need a close above the 200-DMA to

target Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Focused On Gbp0.8645-85

*RES 4: Gbp0.8834 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8758 High Mar 21 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8741 Low Mar 20 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8730 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8703 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8645 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 2018 highs continues with immediate focus on 2018

lows although O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base (Gbp0.8718) are

concerns for bears. Initial resistance is noted at Gbp0.8741 but bulls look for

a close above Gbp0.8758 to ease bearish pressure and target a correction back to

Gbp0.8807-34. Bears look for a close below the 100-WMA to target

Gbp0.8495-0.8535. A close below the 100-WMA was last seen in Jan 2016.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7725

*RES 4: $0.7879 - Falling TL off 2018 high

*RES 3: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $0.7805 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7784 - Hourly resistance Mar 22

*PRICE: $0.7751 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7725 - High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7626 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 4mth lows lacked follow through resulting in a bullish

key day reversal Wednesday. Initial support is noted at $0.7725 with bears now

needing a close below to negate Wednesday's break, returning initial focus to

2018 lows and overall focus to $0.7500-80. Bulls now look for a close above the

200-DMA to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs and

55-DMA are located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to $0.8135-62.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.407 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 3: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 2: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: 89.846 - Low Mar 20 now resistance

*PRICE: 89.546 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 2: 89.394 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The marginal break of 90.420 lacked follow through with the

Bollinger band top the key concern for bulls. The aggressive sell-off and

bearish close Wednesday sees pressure back on 89.407. Bears need a close below

89.407 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA (89.972), ending bullish hopes and

shifting focus back to 88.253 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above 90.011 to

ease bearish pressure.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 1: 2.920 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 2.868 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.865 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: 2.833 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through is less than ideal for bulls

with the Bollinger band top capping. The 21-DMA is now initial support with

bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below 2.833 to shift

focus back to 2.758-793. Bears now need a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes

and initially target 2.585-648. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.957

2018 highs to shift focus back to tests of 3.041 2014 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) $63.99-64.65 Support Region Key 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 1: $66.02 - Monthly High Jan 25

*PRICE: $65.26 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $64.65 - Hourly support Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 3: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive break of $64.07 sees bulls now focused on

$65.63-66.66 where monthly and 2018 highs are situated. A close above $66.66 is

needed to target $69.54-73.25 last seen in early 2014. The Bollinger band top

($64.97) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

Bears now need a close below $64.65 to gain breathing room and below $63.99 to

shift initial focus back to $62.52.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Layers of Support $1318.3-1329.6

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1336.5 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1330.9 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1329.7 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1323.0 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1306.2 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA has provided the

base for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1340.7-1351.3. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls.

Layers of support have been left in the wake with bears now needing a close

below $1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1306.2 where the 100-DMA is

located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]