MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

27 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Target $1.2555-1.2625

*RES 4: $1.2813 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: $1.2770 High Oct 29 2014

*RES 2: $1.2604 Low Oct 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*PRICE: $1.2451 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2417 Hourly resistance Mar 26 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2340 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: $1.2285 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: $1.2240 Low Mar 20

*COMMENTARY: An aggressive rally to start the new week sees bulls in control

with focus now shifting to $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear channel top off 2008

highs is located. The Bollinger top ($1.2458) is the key concern for bulls with

daily studies well placed. Initial support is noted at $1.2417 with bears

needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below $1.2240 to initially

pressure $1.2092-1.2186.

     CABLE TECHS: 1.4066-1.4172 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.5081 2016 High June 24 

*RES 3: $1.4577 Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: $1.4272 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1.4232 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4172 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.4130 Hourly support Mar 26 

*SUP 3: $1.4076 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: $1.4066 High Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA has provided the base for a rally to fresh 2mth highs

with bulls now focused on the $1.4286-1.4349 region where 2018 highs are

located. Correcting modestly O/B daily studies are less than ideal for bulls.

Bears now need a close below $1.4172 to gain breathing room and below $1.4066 to

hint at a correction back to $1.3859-72 where the rising TL off Nov 13 lows is

noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Finding Support Ahead of LT Rising TL

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance, 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21

*PRICE: Y105.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 2: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: Y104.26 LT Rising TL off 2016 low 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support having emerged ahead of the LT rising

TL off 2016 lows with support layers tentatively building. Initial focus is now

on Y106.09 with bulls needing a close above to return focus to Y106.75-107.29.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now need a close

below the LT rising TL to confirm focus on Y99.08-101.15 where 2016 lows are

noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Shifts To Key DMAs

*RES 4: Y133.20 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.01 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 1: Y131.94 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.55 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.94 Hourly resistance Mar 26 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.52 Hourly resistance Mar 26a now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y129.44 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with key WMAs bears failed to gain traction below

the 55 (Y129.21) & 200 (Y129.44) WMAs with the bounce to start the new week

seeing focus back on the Y131.90-133.20 region where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are

noted. Daily studies correcting from O/S are perfectly placed for a leg higher.

Bears now look for a close below Y129.97 to return pressure to Y128.94-129.44

where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Correcting Higher

*RES 4: Gbp0.8841 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8829 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8763 High Mar 26

*PRICE: Gbp0.8746 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8707 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8654 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the 100-WMA was confirmed Thursday with an

aggressive bounce from fresh 2018 & 10mth lows. Daily studies correcting from

O/S increase the risk of a move back to Gbp0.8807-41 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 100-WMA remains key support. Bears look for a close below the

100-WMA to target Gbp0.8495-0.8535. A close below the 100-WMA was last seen in

Jan 2016. While the 100-WMA supports bulls target 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7875 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $0.7807 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: $0.7739 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7711 - Hourly support Mar 26 

*SUP 2: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7661 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7627 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

pair capped around DMAs $0.7777-0.7806. Bulls look for a close above the 200-DMA

to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs and 55-DMA are

located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to $0.8135-62. While the 200-DMA caps bears

remain focused on $0.7500-80 and now look for a close below $0.7669 to add

weight to their case. O/S daily studies are now the key concern for bears.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Returns To 2018 Low

*RES 4: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 3: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: 89.737 - High Mar 23 

*RES 1: 89.327 - Hourly resistance Mar 26

*PRICE: 89.066 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 2: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 3: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*SUP 4: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading has come to an end with a break lower to start the

week that sees immediate pressure on 88.960 and overall focus back on tests of

2018 lows. The Bollinger base (89.109) is the key concern for bears with

potential to limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above 89.327 to gain

breathing room and above 90.011 to shift initial focus back to 90.445 March

highs so far.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Support Emerging Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.858 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.854 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.815 - Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 2.782 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 2.758-786

support region where the 55-DMA is located with pressure now on the 21-DMA.

Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above

2.889 to shift focus back to 2.936-957. Bears continue to look for a close below

2.758 to end bullish hopes and initially target 2.585-648.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Increased Correction Risk 

*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.55 - High Mar 26 

*RES 1: $65.88 - Hourly resistance Mar 26

*PRICE: $65.72 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.02 - Hourly support Mar 23 

*SUP 2: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 3: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2018 highs Monday is less than ideal for

bulls when combined with daily studies at O/B levels and looking to correct as

well as the Bollinger top ($66.06) limiting follow through. Bears now look for a

close below $63.99 to shift initial focus back to $61.45-62.65 where 21 ($62.53)

& 55 ($62.65) DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above $66.66

to target $69.54-73.25 last seen in early 2014.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1343.5

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1366.1 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 1: $1355.9 - High Mar 26

*PRICE: $1352.4 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1350.6 - Hourly support Mar 27 

*SUP 2: $1343.5 - Hourly support Mar 23 

*SUP 3: $1335.6 - Hourly support Mar 23a 

*SUP 4: $1325.8 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provided the base

for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1361.7-1374.9. The Bollinger top ($1348.9)) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears now need a close below $1343.5 to gain breathing room and below

$1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1308.4 where the 100-DMA is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]