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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
10 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2371 To Confirm 55-DMA Break
*RES 4: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2344 High Apr 2
*RES 1: $1.2338 55-DMA
*PRICE: $1.2312 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2307 Hourly support Apr 9
*SUP 2: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6
*SUP 3: $1.2209 Low Apr 6
*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1
*COMMENTARY: Dips below the bull channel base last week lacked follow through
with bears now looking for a close below $1.2209 to confirm initial focus on
$1.2092-1.2162 where the 100-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base is the key concern
for bears ($1.2219) and limits follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.2371
to gain breathing room and above $1.2477 to focus on $1.2555-1.2611 where the LT
bear channel top off 2008 highs is located.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3873-1.3963 Support Key
*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26
*RES 3: $1.4243 200-WMA, Monthly High Mar 27
*RES 2: $1.4209 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: $1.4165 High Apr 9
*PRICE: $1.4132 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4068 Hourly support Apr 6
*SUP 2: $1.4026 Hourly resistance Apr 6 now support
*SUP 3: $1.3963 Low Apr 5
*SUP 4: $1.3934 Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction below the 55-DMA ($1.4003) last
week despite dips below. The $1.3873-1.3963 support region is key this week.
Bears need a close below to confirm a break of the bull channel base off Nov 13
lows and shift initial focus to $1.3710-69. The $1.4243-1.4349 resistance region
is key. A weekly close above would target $1.5018 2016 highs.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.49 To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: Y109.49 100-WMA
*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance
*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5
*PRICE: Y107.10 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.57 Low Apr 9
*SUP 2: Y106.26 21-DMA
*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support
*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA Thursday
with the sell-off providing bears breathing room. A close below the 21-DMA is
now needed to shift initial focus back to Y105.29. The Y107.49 resistance is
key. Bulls need a close above to reconfirm focus on Y108.03-42 with a close
above this region to target Y109.29-110.56 where key DMA and WMAs are situated.
Daily studies approaching O/B is the key concern for bulls.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Remains On Key DMAs
*RES 4: Y133.05 100-DMA
*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13
*RES 2: Y132.20 55-DMA
*RES 1: Y132.15 200-DMA
*PRICE: Y131.86 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4
*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support
*SUP 3: Y129.60 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23
*COMMENTARY: The pair remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and capped ahead of
the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA (Y133.05) key topside. Bulls need a close above the
100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018 highs with a close
above Y134.16 to confirm. The 21-DMA has been supporting but bears look for a
close below Y130.82 to ease bullish pressure and below Y129.97 to return focus
to Y128.94-129.60 where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8667 Support Key
*RES 4: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27
*RES 3: Gbp0.8761 21-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8749 Hourly resistance Apr 6
*RES 1: Gbp0.8723 High Apr 9
*PRICE: Gbp0.8706 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8695 Low Apr 9
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8671 100-WMA
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows was capped ahead of key DMAs and focus
back on Gbp0.8667-71 where the 100-WMA is noted. A close below the 100-WMA was
last seen in Jan 2016. Bears need a close below 2018 lows to confirm a break and
target Gbp0.8313. While the 100-WMA supports bulls target 2018 highs but need a
close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 100-DMA to add
support to their case and shift initial focus to Gbp0.8874-0.8904.
AUSSIE TECHS: Looking To Gain Traction Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $0.7811 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7794 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high
*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22
*RES 1: $0.7756 - 200-WMA
*PRICE: $0.7727 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7718 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10
*SUP 3: $0.7634 - 100-WMA
*SUP 4: $0.7630 - Low Dec 14
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair looks to gain traction above the
21-DMA with layers of resistance $0.7756-0.7842 where WMA & DMAs and the falling
TL off 2018 highs are found. Bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish
hopes and shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62.
Bears need a close below $0.7691 to gain breathing room and below $0.7630 to
confirm a break of the 100-WMA and reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Supporting For Now
*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance
*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6
*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9
*RES 1: 89.959 - Hourly resistance Apr 9
*PRICE: 90.898 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 89.767 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28
*SUP 3: 89.633 - High Mar 27 now support
*SUP 4: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27
*COMMENTARY: Follow through on breaks of recent ranges remains lacking with the
topside break failure seeing pressure back on the 89.633-767 region where the
55-DMA is noted. Bears continue to look for a close below 89.633 to confirm
breaks of DMAs and return focus to tests of 2018 lows. Bulls maintain the
advantage while 89.633 supports but now need a close above 90.273 to return
pressure to 90.597.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.859 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21
*RES 3: 2.889 - High Mar 22
*RES 2: 2.859 - High Mar 27
*RES 1: 2.838 - High Apr 5
*PRICE: 2.808 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.768 - Low Apr 6
*SUP 2: 2.748 - Low Apr 4
*SUP 3: 2.717 - Low Apr 2
*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6
*COMMENTARY: The yield continues to trade below 21 (2.817) & 55 (2.817) DMAs,
although follow through has been lacking, with bears now needing a close below
2.768 to add weight to the case for a test of 2.609-648 where the 100-DMA
(2.641) is found. The 2.859 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close
above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018 highs. Correcting O/S studies
remain a concern for bears.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bulls Need Close Above $64.12
*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27
*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2
*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance
*RES 1: $64.12 - High Apr 4
*PRICE: $63.77 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $63.20 - Hourly support Apr 10
*SUP 2: $62.43 - Hourly resistance Apr 9 now support
*SUP 3: $61.81 - Low Apr 6
*SUP 4: $60.95 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The bounce to start the new week is less than ideal for bears who
continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA to initially pressure $59.18-91
and then the $57.60 Feb low. The $64.12 resistance remains key this week with
bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $65.42 to target
2018 highs. While $64.12 caps bears retain the upper hand but need a close below
$63.22 to gain breathing room.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1356.7 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16
*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27
*RES 2: $1348.4 - High Apr 4
*RES 1: $1341.3 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance
*PRICE: $1334.4 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9
*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support
*SUP 3: $1312.9 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*COMMENTARY: The $1318.3 support confirmed significance last week with bears
needing a close below to add to confidence and below the 100-DMA to confirm
focus on tests of the 200-DMA. Gains Monday provided bulls breathing room but
the $1356.7 resistance is key this week with bulls needing a close above to
confirm initial focus on $1366.7-1374.9.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.