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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
16 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2290 & $1.2253 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: $1.2477 High Mar 27
*RES 3: $1.2425 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 2: $1.2395 High Apr 11
*RES 1: $1.2353 Hourly support Apr 12 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.2332 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support
*SUP 2: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6
*SUP 3: $1.2209 Low Apr 6
*SUP 4: $1.2181 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bear channel top sees the pair
flirting with the 55-DMA ($1.2335) and pressuring initial support. Bears
continue to look for a close below $1.2290 to return initial focus to
$1.2153-1.2209 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls need a close above $1.2353 to
gain breathing room and above $1.2477 to confirm focus on $1.2555-1.2606 where
the LT bear channel top off 2018 highs is located.
CABLE TECHS: Above $1.4349 Targets $1.5018
*RES 4: $1.4664 Weekly Bull channel top
*RES 3: $1.4349 2018 High Jan 25
*RES 2: $1.4286 High Jan 26
*RES 1: $1.4272 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $1.4257 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4218 Low Apr 13
*SUP 2: $1.4182 Hourly support Apr 12
*SUP 3: $1.4145 Hourly support Apr 10
*SUP 4: $1.4111 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 200-WMA ($1.4230) with bulls
needing a close above $1.4349 to confirm traction and shift initial focus to the
weekly bull channel top and overall focus to $1.5018 2016 highs. The Bollinger
top ($1.4273) is the key concern for bulls. Initial support is noted at Friday's
low with bears now needing a close below to gain breathing room and target a
correction back to $1.4104-11 where the 21-DMA is noted.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y108.42 To Target Y109.26-110.47
*RES 4: Y109.46 100-WMA
*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance
*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 1: Y107.77 High Apr 5
*PRICE: Y107.23 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y107.00 55-DMA
*SUP 2: Y106.57 Low Apr 9
*SUP 3: Y106.43 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging at Y106.57 last week but
still need a close above the Y108.03-42 region to target Y109.29-110.54 where
key DMA and WMAs are situated. Follow through was lacking Friday courtesy of the
Bollinger band top (Y107.93) and this remains the key concern for bulls. Bears
now need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to
shift initial focus back to Y105.29 and hint at a move back to 2018 lows.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA To Focus On 2018 High
*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8
*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9
*RES 2: Y133.06 100-DMA
*RES 1: Y132.83 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Y132.25 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.78 Low Apr 12
*SUP 2: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4
*SUP 3: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support
*SUP 4: Y129.86 55-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The break of Y131.99 lacked follow through with bears now needing a
close below Y131.78 to ease bullish pressure and below Y130.82 to confirm a
break of the 21-DMA (Y131.14) and shift initial focus to Y128.94-129.97. Bulls
continue to look for a close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift
overall focus back to 2018 highs. The Bollinger top (Y132.83) and O/B studies
are now recognized as key concerns for bulls.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8690
*RES 4: Gbp0.8749 Hourly resistance Apr 6
*RES 3: Gbp0.8729 21-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8690 Low Apr 10 now resistance
*RES 1: Gbp0.8679 100-WMA
*PRICE: Gbp0.8650 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8625 2018 Low Apr 13
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8515 High May 15 2017 now support
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8380 Monthly Low May 10 2017
*COMMENTARY: The marginal weekly close below the 100-WMA adds weight to the
bearish case for a move now initially targeting Gbp0.8380-0.8515 with below
Gbp0.8380 to confirm focus on Gbp0.8313 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above
Gbp0.8690 to gain breathing room and above Gbp0.8749 to confirm a break of the
21-DMA and to return focus to Gbp0.8797-0.8819 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7842
*RES 4: $0.7916 - High Mar 14
*RES 3: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 2: $0.7814 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7801 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7771 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12
*SUP 2: $0.7710 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10
*SUP 4: $0.7641 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The $0.7842 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a
close above to confirm breaks of 55 & 200-DMAs and the falling daily TL
($0.7768). $0.7735 provided the base for Friday's rally with bears needing a
close below to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to return initial focus
to 2018 lows and the 100-WMA. Overall bears need a close below the weekly bull
channel base ($0.7594) off 2016 lows to initially target $0.7500.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 89.970
*RES 4: 90.905 - 100-DMA
*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6
*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9
*RES 1: 89.970 - High Apr 10
*PRICE: 89.757 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 89.660 - Hourly support Apr 12
*SUP 2: 89.373 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low
*SUP 3: 89.189 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the daily bull
channel base off 2018 lows following the most recent topside failure. Bulls
continue to look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above
90.597 to shift immediate focus to 90.905-91.011 where the 100-DMA is found. The
88.942 support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm traction
below the channel base and to initially target 2018 lows.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.859 To Target 2018 High
*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21
*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21
*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22
*RES 1: 2.859 - High Mar 27
*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.812 - Hourly support Apr 12
*SUP 2: 2.799 - Hourly resistance Apr 12 now support
*SUP 3: 2.748 - Low Apr 4
*SUP 4: 2.730 - Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally and bullish close Thursday saw bulls gain
breathing room and pressure return to 2.859. The 2.859 resistance remains key
this week. Bulls need a close above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018
highs. Support layers building add to bullish confidence. Bears look for a close
below 2.799 to gain breathing room and return initial focus to 2.717-748 where
the Bollinger band base is noted.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Potential Bearish Key Day Reversal
*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance
*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont)
*RES 2: $69.18 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 1: $67.68 - 2018 High Apr 16
*PRICE: $66.75 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $66.58 - Hourly support Apr 16
*SUP 2: $65.94 - Low Apr 12
*SUP 3: $65.68 - Hourly support Apr 11
*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs in Asian trading have lacked follow through
with the contract offered and pressuring $66.58 having dipped below Friday's
low. Bears now look for a close below $66.58 to gain breathing room and below
$65.68 to shift initial focus back to $64.10-49 where the 21-DMA ($64.49) is
located. The Bollinger band top ($67.69) remains a concern for bulls and
currently limits follow through.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1326.9 Support Now Key
*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016
*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*RES 2: $1366.0 - 2018 High Jan 25
*RES 1: $1353.2 - High Apr 12
*PRICE: $1348.0 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10
*SUP 2: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9
*SUP 3: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support
*SUP 4: $1314.8 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The $1326.9-1330.9 support is key this week. Bears need a close
below $1326.9 to confirm initial focus on $1315.4-1318.3 where the 100-DMA is
noted. Below the 100-DMA remains needed to initially target $1298.5-1302.5 where
the 200-DMA and 2018 lows are found. Bulls now need a close above $1353.2 to
return focus to $1366.0-1391.8 where 2018, 2016 & 2014 highs are located.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.