MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

3 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2053

*RES 4: $1.2227 100-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2032 High May 2

*PRICE: $1.1975 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1806 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 200-DMA Tuesday ($1.2015), the first since

April 2017 added weight to the bearish case with immediate focus on $1.1914 2018

lows and overall focus now on $1.1806-15 where the 55-WMA is noted. O/S studies

looking to correct remain the key concern for bears. Bulls still need a close

above $1.2053 to gain breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to

key DMAs $1.2227-87.

     CABLE TECHS: Hesitating Ahead of 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3877 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 2: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3666 High May 2

*PRICE: $1.3594 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3537 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3370 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs has resulted in traction below

the weekly bull channel base ($1.3686) off Mar lows with immediate focus now on

the 200-DMA and 2018 lows. Bears now look for a close below $1.3456 to target

$1.2995-1.3032. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a

close above $1.3711 to gain breathing room and above $1.3792 to shift initial

focus to $1.3878-1.4026.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: Y111.48 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y110.75 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: Y110.49 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Y110.21 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.49 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the closes above the 100-WMA with immediate

bullish focus on Y110.22-49 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls need

a close above the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.48-98. O/B studies remain the

key concern for bulls. Bears still need a close below the 100-WMA to gain

breathing room and hint at a correction back to Y108.54-97 where the 100-DMA

(Y108.75) is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y131.05 Initially Targets Y128.94-130.43

*RES 4: Y133.25 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 2: Y132.23 Hourly resistance Apr 30

*RES 1: Y131.49 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.40 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.05 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: Y130.42 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.27 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA adds weight to the bearish case with a

close below Y131.05 now needed to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to shift

focus to Y128.94-130.42 where 55 & 200-WMAs are noted. Daily studies approaching

O/S are the key concern for bears. The 55-DMA is now initial resistance but

bulls need a close above Y132.23 to gain breathing room and above Y134.16 to

confirm focus on 2018 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8878 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8830 55-WMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8812 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8785 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8732 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Support now emerging on dips is a concern for bears with focus

currently on the 55-WMA. Bulls need a close above the 55-WMA to hint at a move

back to 2018 highs with above the 200-DMA to confirm. Daily studies lingering at

O/B levels is a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below

the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8664-78.

     AUSSIE TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Key Concern For Bears

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7546 - High May 1

*PRICE: $0.7522 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & nearly 12 month lows following the close below $0.7498

left the pair looking heavy and bears focused on $0.7326. Bears now look for a

close below this level to then target $0.7142 Dec 2016 monthly lows. O/S studies

remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.7546 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7590 to initially pressure the $0.7648 resistance

level with the 21-DMA ($0.7655) lurking above.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.287 - 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.834 - 2018 High May 2

*PRICE: 92.517 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.967 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that

sees immediate focus on 93.035-287 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies and

daily momentum divergence remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support

accumulate. Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and

below 91.426 to shift focus back to 90.117-633 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Initially Focused On 2.925

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2

*PRICE: 2.976 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.934 - Low Apr 30 

*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (3.057).

Immediate focus remains on 2.925. Below 2.925 is needed to shift initial focus

back to 2.868-904 where 21 (2.895) & 55 (2.868) DMAs are situated. The

3.041-3.073 resistance region is key with bulls needing a close above 3.073 to

shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 

*RES 3: $69.34 - High Apr 30 

*RES 2: $68.90 - High May 1 

*RES 1: $68.14 - High May 2

*PRICE: $67.84 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $66.94 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $65.09 - Low Apr 11 

*SUP 3: $64.10 - High Apr 5 now support 

*SUP 4: $63.75 - Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are a concern for bulls when

combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the

Bollinger top. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA to add weight to the case

for a correction back to $63.75-64.10 where the 55-DMA ($64.09) is noted. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on $71.37-73.25

where the MT bull channel top is situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Hesitating Around 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $1330.3 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1326.6 - High Apr 16 

*RES 1: $1316.3 - High May 1

*PRICE: $1309.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1291.6 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1277.2 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5 month lows see gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1304.5) and focus now on the 55-WMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-WMA

to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.6) and Dec low

($1235.9). Bulls now need a close above $1316.3 to gain breathing room and hint

at a correction back to $1326.6-1332.6 where the 55 & 21-DMAs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]