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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
3 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2053
*RES 4: $1.2227 100-DMA
*RES 3: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2032 High May 2
*PRICE: $1.1975 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19
*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22
*SUP 3: $1.1806 55-WMA
*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12
*COMMENTARY: The close below the 200-DMA Tuesday ($1.2015), the first since
April 2017 added weight to the bearish case with immediate focus on $1.1914 2018
lows and overall focus now on $1.1806-15 where the 55-WMA is noted. O/S studies
looking to correct remain the key concern for bears. Bulls still need a close
above $1.2053 to gain breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to
key DMAs $1.2227-87.
CABLE TECHS: Hesitating Ahead of 200-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3877 100-DMA
*RES 3: $1.3792 High Apr 30
*RES 2: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3666 High May 2
*PRICE: $1.3594 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3537 200-DMA
*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11
*SUP 3: $1.3370 55-WMA
*SUP 4: $1.3300 Low Dec 15
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs has resulted in traction below
the weekly bull channel base ($1.3686) off Mar lows with immediate focus now on
the 200-DMA and 2018 lows. Bears now look for a close below $1.3456 to target
$1.2995-1.3032. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a
close above $1.3711 to gain breathing room and above $1.3792 to shift initial
focus to $1.3878-1.4026.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA
*RES 4: Y111.48 High Jan 18
*RES 3: Y110.75 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: Y110.49 55-WMA
*RES 1: Y110.21 200-DMA
*PRICE: Y109.66 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.49 100-WMA
*SUP 2: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25
*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23
*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the closes above the 100-WMA with immediate
bullish focus on Y110.22-49 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls need
a close above the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.48-98. O/B studies remain the
key concern for bulls. Bears still need a close below the 100-WMA to gain
breathing room and hint at a correction back to Y108.54-97 where the 100-DMA
(Y108.75) is found.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y131.05 Initially Targets Y128.94-130.43
*RES 4: Y133.25 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: Y132.54 High Apr 30
*RES 2: Y132.23 Hourly resistance Apr 30
*RES 1: Y131.49 55-DMA
*PRICE: Y131.40 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.05 Low Apr 5
*SUP 2: Y130.42 55-WMA
*SUP 3: Y129.27 200-WMA
*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23
*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA adds weight to the bearish case with a
close below Y131.05 now needed to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to shift
focus to Y128.94-130.42 where 55 & 200-WMAs are noted. Daily studies approaching
O/S are the key concern for bears. The 55-DMA is now initial resistance but
bulls need a close above Y132.23 to gain breathing room and above Y134.16 to
confirm focus on 2018 highs.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-WMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7
*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance
*RES 2: Gbp0.8878 200-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8830 55-WMA
*PRICE: Gbp0.8812 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8785 55-DMA
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8732 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26
*COMMENTARY: Support now emerging on dips is a concern for bears with focus
currently on the 55-WMA. Bulls need a close above the 55-WMA to hint at a move
back to 2018 highs with above the 200-DMA to confirm. Daily studies lingering at
O/B levels is a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below
the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to
Gbp0.8664-78.
AUSSIE TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Key Concern For Bears
*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23
*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24
*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25
*RES 1: $0.7546 - High May 1
*PRICE: $0.7522 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1
*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017
*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017
*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & nearly 12 month lows following the close below $0.7498
left the pair looking heavy and bears focused on $0.7326. Bears now look for a
close below this level to then target $0.7142 Dec 2016 monthly lows. O/S studies
remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.7546 to gain
breathing room and above $0.7590 to initially pressure the $0.7648 resistance
level with the 21-DMA ($0.7655) lurking above.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA
*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12
*RES 3: 93.287 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance
*RES 1: 92.834 - 2018 High May 2
*PRICE: 92.517 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2
*SUP 2: 91.967 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26
*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that
sees immediate focus on 93.035-287 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies and
daily momentum divergence remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support
accumulate. Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and
below 91.426 to shift focus back to 90.117-633 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are
located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Initially Focused On 2.925
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25
*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2
*PRICE: 2.976 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.934 - Low Apr 30
*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20
*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20
*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily
studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (3.057).
Immediate focus remains on 2.925. Below 2.925 is needed to shift initial focus
back to 2.868-904 where 21 (2.895) & 55 (2.868) DMAs are situated. The
3.041-3.073 resistance region is key with bulls needing a close above 3.073 to
shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19
*RES 3: $69.34 - High Apr 30
*RES 2: $68.90 - High May 1
*RES 1: $68.14 - High May 2
*PRICE: $67.84 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $66.94 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: $65.09 - Low Apr 11
*SUP 3: $64.10 - High Apr 5 now support
*SUP 4: $63.75 - Low Apr 11
*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are a concern for bulls when
combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the
Bollinger top. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA to add weight to the case
for a correction back to $63.75-64.10 where the 55-DMA ($64.09) is noted. Bulls
continue to look for a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on $71.37-73.25
where the MT bull channel top is situated.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Hesitating Around 200-DMA
*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24
*RES 3: $1330.3 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: $1326.6 - High Apr 16
*RES 1: $1316.3 - High May 1
*PRICE: $1309.5 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1
*SUP 2: $1291.6 - 55-WMA
*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support
*SUP 4: $1277.2 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5 month lows see gold flirting with the 200-DMA
($1304.5) and focus now on the 55-WMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-WMA
to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.6) and Dec low
($1235.9). Bulls now need a close above $1316.3 to gain breathing room and hint
at a correction back to $1326.6-1332.6 where the 55 & 21-DMAs are noted.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.