MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7

*PRICE: $1.1912 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1896 2018 Low May 7 

*SUP 2: $1.1828 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: Closes below the 200-DMA resulted in fresh 2018 lows again Monday

although follow through is lacking, daily studies remain O/S and momentum

divergence exists. In saying that, bulls still need a close above $1.2053 to

gain breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to key DMAs

$1.2231-71. While $1.2053 caps bears now focus on $1.1690-1.1716 where Dec lows

are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3586 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 1: $1.3586 High May 4

*PRICE: $1.3551 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3515 Low May 7 

*SUP 2: $1.3485 Low May 4 

*SUP 3: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: $1.3383 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears managed a dip below the 200-DMA ($1.3542) on the way to fresh

4mth lows Friday but follow through remains lacking with O/S daily studies

correcting and momentum divergence seen as key concerns for bears. In saying

that, bulls now need a close above $1.3586 to gain breathing room and above

$1.3792 to shift initial focus to $1.3878-1.4026 where 21 ($1.3925), 55

($1.3959) & 100 ($1.3884) DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.54 & Y109.54 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: Y111.17 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: Y110.48 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.19 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.54 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: Y108.98 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.95 Daily Bull channel base off 2018 lows 

*SUP 2: Y108.64 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with daily studies

correcting from O/B is a concern for bulls and currently weighs. Bears continue

to look for a close below Y108.54 to break the channel base and shift initial

focus back to Y107.85 whereas below Y106.57 is needed to see bears targeting

2018 lows. Bulls still need a close above Y109.54 to gain breathing room and

above the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.48-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y130.66

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y131.98 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.66 Hourly support May 4 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.90 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.22 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 3: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: Y126.09 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined for the pair last week with immediate bearish focus

now on 2018 lows. Bears look for a close below 2018 lows this week to initially

target the bear channel base around Y126.09. O/S daily studies are the key

concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y130.66 to gain breathing room

and hint at a correction back to Y131.97-54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Support

*RES 4: Gbp0.8877 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8810 100-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8798 Hourly resistance May 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8793 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8776 Low May 7 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8745 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8838) appears to be impacting

with a sell-off Monday that sees focus back on the 21-DMA. Bears need a close

below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8664-78. Correcting O/B studies

remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that, bulls now need a close above

the 100-DMA to gain breathing room. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8844 to

confirm a break of the 55-WMA and hint at a move back to 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7640 Resistance Now Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7631 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7560 - High May 4

*PRICE: $0.7501 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 lows with

correcting O/S studies providing the impetus for a correction last week. Bulls

look for a close above $0.7640 this week to shift initial focus to

$0.7709-0.7842 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are found. While the 21-DMA caps bears

retain focus on $0.7326 June 2017 monthly lows. Bears look for a close below

$0.7470 to add to confidence.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.153 - 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.900 - 2018 High May 4

*PRICE: 92.778 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.957 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that

sees immediate focus on 93.035-219 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies

correcting and daily momentum divergence remain the key concern for bulls. In

saying that, bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room

and below 91.426 to shift focus back to 90.352-991 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2

*PRICE: 2.953 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.916 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.871 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining heavy bulls took comfort in support emerging back

towards the 21-DMA Friday. The 55-DMA is seen as key support this week with

bears needing a close below to add weight to the case for a move back to

2.717-753 where the 100-DMA (2.753) is situated. Bulls now look for a close

above 2.996 to gain breathing room and above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223

where the weekly bull channel top is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bollinger Top Limiting Follow Through

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $71.63 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $70.84 - 2018 High May 7 

*RES 1: $70.46 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $69.97 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $69.51 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: $68.12 - Low May 4 

*SUP 3: $67.99 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $66.85 - Low May 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

21-DMA last week which provided the base for a rally to fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs.

Follow through has been lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band top which is a

concern with bulls currently focused on the daily bull channel top. Bears now

need a close below $69.51 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back

towards $66.85-67.99 where the 21-DMA is located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1327.8 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1326.6 - High Apr 16 

*RES 2: $1324.4 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: $1318.9 - High May 7

*PRICE: $1313.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1292.2 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support

*SUP 4: $1277.7 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5 month lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1305.0) and bears now needing a close below 2018 lows to confirm traction

below and add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5) and Dec low

($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close

above this level to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are

found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]