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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
8 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2
*RES 1: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7
*PRICE: $1.1912 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1896 2018 Low May 7
*SUP 2: $1.1828 55-WMA
*SUP 3: $1.1815 Low Dec 22
*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12
*COMMENTARY: Closes below the 200-DMA resulted in fresh 2018 lows again Monday
although follow through is lacking, daily studies remain O/S and momentum
divergence exists. In saying that, bulls still need a close above $1.2053 to
gain breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to key DMAs
$1.2231-71. While $1.2053 caps bears now focus on $1.1690-1.1716 where Dec lows
are situated.
CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3586 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30
*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2
*RES 1: $1.3586 High May 4
*PRICE: $1.3551 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3515 Low May 7
*SUP 2: $1.3485 Low May 4
*SUP 3: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11
*SUP 4: $1.3383 55-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears managed a dip below the 200-DMA ($1.3542) on the way to fresh
4mth lows Friday but follow through remains lacking with O/S daily studies
correcting and momentum divergence seen as key concerns for bears. In saying
that, bulls now need a close above $1.3586 to gain breathing room and above
$1.3792 to shift initial focus to $1.3878-1.4026 where 21 ($1.3925), 55
($1.3959) & 100 ($1.3884) DMAs are noted.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.54 & Y109.54 Levels Key This Week
*RES 4: Y111.17 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: Y110.48 55-WMA
*RES 2: Y110.19 200-DMA
*RES 1: Y109.54 Alternating daily support/resistance
*PRICE: Y108.98 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.95 Daily Bull channel base off 2018 lows
*SUP 2: Y108.64 100-DMA
*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23
*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with daily studies
correcting from O/B is a concern for bulls and currently weighs. Bears continue
to look for a close below Y108.54 to break the channel base and shift initial
focus back to Y107.85 whereas below Y106.57 is needed to see bears targeting
2018 lows. Bulls still need a close above Y109.54 to gain breathing room and
above the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.48-98.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y130.66
*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30
*RES 3: Y131.98 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance
*RES 1: Y130.66 Hourly support May 4 now resistance
*PRICE: Y129.90 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.22 200-WMA
*SUP 2: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23
*SUP 3: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18
*SUP 4: Y126.09 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined for the pair last week with immediate bearish focus
now on 2018 lows. Bears look for a close below 2018 lows this week to initially
target the bear channel base around Y126.09. O/S daily studies are the key
concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y130.66 to gain breathing room
and hint at a correction back to Y131.97-54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Support
*RES 4: Gbp0.8877 200-DMA
*RES 3: Gbp0.8844 High May 4
*RES 2: Gbp0.8810 100-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8798 Hourly resistance May 7
*PRICE: Gbp0.8793 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8776 Low May 7
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8745 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8838) appears to be impacting
with a sell-off Monday that sees focus back on the 21-DMA. Bears need a close
below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8664-78. Correcting O/B studies
remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that, bulls now need a close above
the 100-DMA to gain breathing room. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8844 to
confirm a break of the 55-WMA and hint at a move back to 2018 highs.
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7640 Resistance Now Key This Week
*RES 4: $0.7631 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24
*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25
*RES 1: $0.7560 - High May 4
*PRICE: $0.7501 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1
*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017
*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017
*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 lows with
correcting O/S studies providing the impetus for a correction last week. Bulls
look for a close above $0.7640 this week to shift initial focus to
$0.7709-0.7842 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are found. While the 21-DMA caps bears
retain focus on $0.7326 June 2017 monthly lows. Bears look for a close below
$0.7470 to add to confidence.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA
*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12
*RES 3: 93.153 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance
*RES 1: 92.900 - 2018 High May 4
*PRICE: 92.778 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2
*SUP 2: 91.957 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26
*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that
sees immediate focus on 93.035-219 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies
correcting and daily momentum divergence remain the key concern for bulls. In
saying that, bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room
and below 91.426 to shift focus back to 90.352-991 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are
located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25
*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2
*PRICE: 2.953 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.916 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20
*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support
*SUP 4: 2.871 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining heavy bulls took comfort in support emerging back
towards the 21-DMA Friday. The 55-DMA is seen as key support this week with
bears needing a close below to add weight to the case for a move back to
2.717-753 where the 100-DMA (2.753) is situated. Bulls now look for a close
above 2.996 to gain breathing room and above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223
where the weekly bull channel top is noted.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bollinger Top Limiting Follow Through
*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance
*RES 3: $71.63 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: $70.84 - 2018 High May 7
*RES 1: $70.46 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $69.97 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $69.51 - Low May 7
*SUP 2: $68.12 - Low May 4
*SUP 3: $67.99 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: $66.85 - Low May 1
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the
21-DMA last week which provided the base for a rally to fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs.
Follow through has been lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band top which is a
concern with bulls currently focused on the daily bull channel top. Bears now
need a close below $69.51 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back
towards $66.85-67.99 where the 21-DMA is located.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1327.8 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: $1326.6 - High Apr 16
*RES 2: $1324.4 - 100-DMA
*RES 1: $1318.9 - High May 7
*PRICE: $1313.7 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1
*SUP 2: $1292.2 - 55-WMA
*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support
*SUP 4: $1277.7 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5 month lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA
($1305.0) and bears now needing a close below 2018 lows to confirm traction
below and add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5) and Dec low
($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close
above this level to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are
found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.