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Breaches Key Short-Term Support

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Late SOFR/Treasury Option Trade

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9 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressuring 55-WMA
*RES 4: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2032 High May 2
*RES 2: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7
*RES 1: $1.1897 Hourly resistance May 8
*PRICE: $1.1853 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1827 55-WMA 
*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 
*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 
*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows continue with immediate pressure on
$1.1815-27 where the 55-WMA is located. Bears look for a close below $1.1815 to
initially pressure $1.1690-1.1716. O/S daily studies remain the key concern for
bears but at present bears dominate as layers of resistance build. Bulls
continue to look for a close above $1.2053 to confirm an easing of bearish
pressure and to shift initial focus back to $1.2144-1.2294.
     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3591 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 
*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 
*RES 1: $1.3591 High May 8
*PRICE: $1.3542 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3482 Low May 8 
*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 
*SUP 3: $1.3382 55-WMA 
*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15
*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 200-DMA ($1.3543) continue as do fresh 4mth lows but
follow through remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum
divergence seen as key concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $1.3591
to gain breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to
$1.3878-1.4026 where 21 ($1.3895), 55 ($1.3952) & 100 ($1.3885) DMAs are noted.
Bears need a close below $1.3456 to target $1.3300.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 
*RES 3: Y110.48 55-WMA 
*RES 2: Y110.18 200-DMA 
*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2
*PRICE: Y109.47 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.81 Low May 8 
*SUP 2: Y108.60 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23
*SUP 4: Y108.47 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips to the 100-DMA with
gains seeing focus on Y110.02-48 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are. Bulls need a
close above the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98. Bears look for a
close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift
initial focus back to Y107.85 whereas below Y106.57 is needed to see bears
targeting 2018 lows.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressuring 200-WMA
*RES 4: Y131.83 21-DMA
*RES 3: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance
*RES 2: Y130.66 Hourly support May 4 now resistance
*RES 1: Y130.12 High May 8
*PRICE: Y129.77 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.22 200-WMA 
*SUP 2: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 
*SUP 3: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 
*SUP 4: Y126.02 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined for the pair last week with immediate bearish focus
now on 2018 lows. Bears look for a close below 2018 lows this week to initially
target the bear channel base around Y126.02. O/S daily studies are the key
concern for bears as pressure currently weighs on the 200-WMA. Bulls now need a
close above Y130.66 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to
Y131.82-54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Support
*RES 4: Gbp0.8874 200-DMA 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8808 100-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8798 Hourly resistance May 7
*PRICE: Gbp0.8757 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8746 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8641 Hourly support Apr 18
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8837) appears to be impacting
with a sell-off Monday that sees focus back on the 21-DMA. Bears need a close
below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8664-78. Correcting O/B studies
remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that, bulls now need a close above
the 100-DMA to gain breathing room. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8844 to
confirm a break of the 55-WMA and hint at a move back to 2018 highs.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On $0.7326
*RES 4: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25
*RES 3: $0.7560 - High May 4
*RES 2: $0.7490 - Hourly support May 8 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7470 - Low May 1 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7437 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7383 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 
*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 
*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows add weight to the bearish case with
immediate focus on $0.7326. Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern
for bears as the pair gains traction following the break of the weekly bull
channel base ($0.7613). Layers of resistance build and add weight to the bearish
case. Bulls need a close above $0.7490 to gain breathing room and above $0.7640
to shift initial focus to $0.7701-0.7842 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA
*RES 4: 94.659 - 200-WMA 
*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 
*RES 2: 93.508 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 93.280 - 2018 High May 8
*PRICE: 93.195 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.952 - Hourly support May 7
*SUP 2: 92.223 - Low May 2
*SUP 3: 91.959 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26
*COMMENTARY: After a few days consolidation bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 &
5mth highs with the index now flirting with the 55-WMA (93.160). Bulls look for
a close above current 2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA. O/B
studies remain the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 92.952 to
gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to the 200-DMA.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Back On 3.041-073
*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 
*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.997 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.937 - Low May 7 
*SUP 2: 2.925 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 
*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards the 21-DMA Friday saw a pop
back above 2.996 and focus having returned to the 3.041-073 resistance region.
Daily studies are now well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bulls continue to look
for a close above 3.073 to confirm traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and
target 3.219-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a
close below 2.937 to ease bullish pressure.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On Channel Top
*RES 4: $74.16 - Weekly Bull channel top 
*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 
*RES 2: $71.71 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: $70.84 - 2018 High May 7
*PRICE: $70.63 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 2: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 
*SUP 3: $68.34 - Hourly support May 8 
*SUP 4: $67.63 - Low May 8
*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off was short lived and aggressively reversed
maintaining pressure on recent 2018 & 3+yr highs. Follow through has been
lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band top which is a concern with bulls
currently focused on the daily bull channel top. Bears now need a close below
$69.12 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back towards
$66.85-67.63. A close below $66.85 is needed to shift focus to $64.10-65.59.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 
*RES 3: $1326.6 - High Apr 16, 21 & 55-DMAs 
*RES 2: $1324.9 - 100-DMA 
*RES 1: $1318.9 - High May 7
*PRICE: $1310.6 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1305.5 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 
*SUP 3: $1292.2 - 55-WMA 
*SUP 4: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support
*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5mth lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA
($1305.5) and bears needing a close below 2018 lows to confirm traction below
and add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5) and Dec low
($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close
above $1318.9 to gain breathing room and above $1332.6 to shift focus back to
$1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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