MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 2: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7

*RES 1: $1.1897 Hourly resistance May 8

*PRICE: $1.1861 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1827 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows continue with immediate pressure on

$1.1815-27 where the 55-WMA is located. Bears look for a close below $1.1815 to

initially pressure $1.1690-1.1716. O/S daily studies remain the key concern for

bears but at present bears dominate as layers of resistance build. Bulls now

look for a close above $1.1897 to gain breathing room and above $1.2053 to shift

initial focus back to $1.2144-1.2294.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3606 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 1: $1.3606 High May 9

*PRICE: $1.3563 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3482 Low May 8 

*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3383 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 200-DMA ($1.3546) continue but follow through

remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum divergence seen

as key concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $1.3606 to gain

breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to $1.3866-1.4026 where

21 ($1.3866), 55 ($1.3945) & 100 ($1.3887) DMAs are noted. Bears need a close

below $1.3456 to initially target $1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.49 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.19 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2

*PRICE: Y109.72 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.39 High May 7 now support 

*SUP 2: Y108.81 Low May 8 

*SUP 3: Y108.62 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y108.57 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips to the 100-DMA with

gains seeing focus on Y110.02-49 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are. Bulls need a

close above the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98. Bears again look

for a close below Y108.54 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to Y107.85 whereas below Y106.57 is needed to see bears

targeting 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-WMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y131.74 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.66 Hourly support May 4 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.15 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.22 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the pair finding support around the 200-WMA

for now when combined with daily studies looking to correct from very O/S

levels. Bears look for a close below 2018 lows to initially target the bear

channel base around Y125.94. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y130.66 to

gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to Y131.74-132.54 where the 21

& 200-DMAs are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8767

*RES 4: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8807 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8798 Hourly resistance May 7 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8767 High May 9

*PRICE: Gbp0.8757 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8725 Low May 9 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8641 Hourly support Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Losses have defined the week so far with the pair now flirting with

the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8746) and bears now focused on Gbp0.8664-78. Correcting O/B

studies remain the key concern for bulls and have weighed this week. In saying

that, bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8767 to gain breathing room and above

the 100-DMA to shift focus to Gbp0.8837-74 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are

noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7490

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 2: $0.7560 - High May 4

*RES 1: $0.7490 - Hourly support May 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7466 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7374 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows continue although the lack of follow through

is a concern when combined with correcting O/S studies and daily Momentum

divergence. In saying that, bulls now need a close above $0.7490 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7648 to shift initial focus to $0.7694-0.7735 where

the 55-DMA is located. Bears currently focus on $0.7326 June lows while $0.7490

caps.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.908 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 93.416 - 2018 High May 9 

*RES 1: 93.200 - Hourly resistance May 9

*PRICE: 93.020 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.654 - Low May 8

*SUP 2: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 3: 91.959 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: After a few days consolidation bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 &

5mth highs with the index now flirting with the 55-WMA (93.157). Bulls look for

a close above current 2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA. O/B

studies remain the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 92.654 to

gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to the 200-DMA.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.988 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: 2.936 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards the 21-DMA Friday saw a pop

above 2.996 and focus having returned to the 3.041-073 resistance region. Daily

studies are now well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 3.073 to confirm traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and target

3.219-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.46

*RES 4: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 3: $74.16 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 1: $71.80 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: $71.69 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $70.46 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $68.34 - Hourly support May 8

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off was short lived and aggressively reversed

resulting in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs once again with bulls currently focused on

the bull channel tops. Support layers building add to bullish confidence. Bears

now need a close below $70.46 to gain breathing room and below $69.12 to hint at

a correction back towards $66.85-67.63. A close below $66.85 is needed to shift

focus to $64.10-65.59.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $1327.0 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1325.4 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: $1318.9 - High May 7

*PRICE: $1313.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.7 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 3: $1292.2 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gold continues to flirt with the 200-DMA with bears needing a close

below 2018 lows to confirm traction below and add weight to the case for a test

of the 200-WMA ($1234.5) and Dec low ($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance remains

key this week. Bulls need a close above $1318.9 to gain breathing room and above

$1332.6 to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]