MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Increased Correction Risk

*RES 4: $1.2131 High Apr 27

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7

*PRICE: $1.1917 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1871 Hourly support May 10 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Thursday's close above $1.1897 buys bulls breathing room and

increases the risk of a correction initially targeting $1.2018-53 where the

200-DMA is located when combined with correcting O/S studies. Above $1.2053 is

needed to shift initial focus back to $1.2153-1.2294. Bears now look for a close

below $1.1871 to see pressure back on 2018 lows. A close below 2018 lows is

needed to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on $1.1690-1.1716.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.3617

*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 1: $1.3617 High May 9

*PRICE: $1.3528 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3511 Hourly support May 10 

*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3382 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 200-DMA ($1.3546) continue but follow through

remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum divergence seen

as key concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $1.3617 to gain

breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to $1.3830-1.4026 where

21 ($1.3830), 55 ($1.3936) & 100 ($1.3888) DMAs are noted. Bears need a close

below $1.3456 to initially target $1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.48 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.18 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2

*PRICE: Y109.44 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.81 Low May 8 

*SUP 2: Y108.71 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.53 Low Apr 24, 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Yet another rejection ahead of the 200-DMA and 55-WMA is a concern

for bulls and leaves the pair looking offered. Bears now need a close below

Y108.53 to confirm breaks of 21 & 100-DMAs with focus then shifting to

Y106.57-107.85 where the 55-DMA (Y107.26) is located. Bulls continue to look for

a close above the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98 and overall

focus to tests of 2018 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-WMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y131.66 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.75 High May 10

*PRICE: Y130.45 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.22 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support around the 200-WMA when combined with

daily studies looking to correct from very O/S levels. Bears continue to look

for a close below 2018 lows to initially target the bear channel base around

Y125.87. Bulls now look for a close above Y130.75 to gain breathing room and

hint at a correction back to Y131.66-132.54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located

whereas bears need a close below Y129.91 to reconfirm control.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8872 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8844 High May 4

*PRICE: Gbp0.8809 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8782 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8725 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally Thursday bought bulls breathing room but the

hesitation ahead of Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is noted is less than

ideal. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8904 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and

to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease

pressure on resistance layers and below Gbp0.8725 to shift focus back to 2018

lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7648 Next Topside Hurdle

*RES 4: $0.7690 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7560 - High May 4

*PRICE: $0.7536 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7490 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $0.7472 - High May 9 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The previously noted lack of follow through on 2018 lows has been

followed up with an aggressive rally and close above $0.7490 that buys breathing

room. A close above $0.7648 is now needed to shift initial focus to

$0.7690-0.7735 where the 55-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below $0.7472

to confirm a false break and return immediate focus to 2018 lows and then

$0.7326 June lows beneath.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: 93.416 - 2018 High May 9 

*RES 3: 93.200 - Hourly resistance May 9 

*RES 2: 92.998 - Hourly resistance May 10 

*RES 1: 92.841 - Low May 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.712 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.957 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.461 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Having so far failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (93.152) the

index is looking a little heavy with correcting O/B daily studies seen weighing.

Bears continue to look for a close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure

and shift initial focus to 90.518-91.461 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are found.

Bulls now need a close above 2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA

(94.657).

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Now Key Support

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.966 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.941 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg higher with focus

back on 3.041-073. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3.073 to confirm

traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and target 3.219-223 where the weekly

bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to ease

bullish pressure. Overall below the 55-DMA is needed to shift initial focus back

to 2.814.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.46

*RES 4: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014

*RES 3: $74.16 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 1: $71.88 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: $71.25 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $70.46 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $68.34 - Hourly support May 8

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off Wed was short lived and aggressively reversed

resulting in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs once again with bulls currently focused on

the bull channel tops. Bears now need a close below $70.46 to gain breathing

room and below $69.12 to hint at a correction back towards $66.85-67.63. A close

below $66.85 is needed to shift focus to $64.10-65.59 with the 55-DMA at $65.16.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1340.8 - Low Apr 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 2: $1327.0 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1326.0 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1320.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.9 - High May 7 now support 

*SUP 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 

*SUP 3: $1306.0 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1

*COMMENTARY: Gold failed to gain traction on dips below the 200-DMA with focus

having returned to $1326.0-1332.6 where key DMAs are located. Bulls continue to

look for a close above $1332.6 to gain traction above key DMAs and to return

focus to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are found. Bears now need a close below

$1318.9 to gain breathing room and below $1301.5 to add weight to the case for a

test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]