MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2095 21-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.2019 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1961 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1930 Hourly support May 11 

*SUP 2: $1.1871 Hourly support May 10 

*SUP 3: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Thursday's close above $1.1897 bought bulls breathing room and

increases the risk of a correction initially targeting $1.2019-53 where the

200-DMA is located when combined with correcting O/S studies. Above $1.2053 is

needed to shift initial focus back to $1.2153-1.2294. Bears now look for a close

below $1.1871 to see pressure back on 2018 lows. A close below 2018 lows is

needed to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on $1.1690-1.1716.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.3617

*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 1: $1.3617 High May 9

*PRICE: $1.3566 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3531 Hourly support May 11 

*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3394 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 200-DMA ($1.3551) continue but follow through

remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum divergence seen

as key concerns for bears. Bulls need a close above $1.3617 to gain breathing

room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to $1.3799-1.3929 where 21

($1.3799), 55 ($1.3929) & 100 ($1.3891) DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below

$1.3456 to initially target $1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y110.44 55-WMA 

*RES 3: Y110.17 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y110.02 High May 2 

*RES 1: Y109.56 High May 11

*PRICE: Y109.36 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.81 Low May 8, 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: Y108.49 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Yet another rejection ahead of the 200-DMA and 55-WMA was a concern

for bulls last week and leaves the pair looking offered. Bears now need a close

below the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to Y106.57-107.85

where the 55-DMA (Y107.30) is located. Bulls continue to look for a close above

the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98 and overall focus to tests of

2018 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y129.91

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y131.60 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.93 High May 4

*PRICE: Y130.81 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support around the 200-WMA last week when

combined with daily studies correcting from very O/S levels. The pair has worked

its way back towards Y130.93-131.59 where 55 & 21-DMAs are noted. Overall bulls

need a close above the 100-DMA (Y132.71) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. Bears

now need a close below Y129.91 to ease bullish pressure and below 2018 lows to

initially target the bear channel base around Y125.80.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Worry

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8871 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8844 High May 4

*PRICE: Gbp0.8817 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8782 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8725 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally Thursday bought bulls breathing room but the

hesitation ahead of Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is noted is less than

ideal. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8904 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and

to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease

pressure on resistance layers and below Gbp0.8725 to shift focus back to 2018

lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7648 Next Topside Hurdle

*RES 4: $0.7684 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7584 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7554 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7519 - Low May 11 

*SUP 2: $0.7490 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $0.7472 - High May 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9

*COMMENTARY: The previously noted lack of follow through on 2018 lows was

followed up with a close above $0.7490 that bought bulls breathing room. A close

above $0.7648 remains needed to shift initial focus to $0.7684-0.7735 where the

55-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below $0.7472 to confirm a false break

and return immediate focus to 2018 lows and then $0.7326 June lows beneath.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: 93.416 - 2018 High May 9 

*RES 3: 93.200 - Hourly resistance May 9 

*RES 2: 92.998 - Hourly resistance May 10 

*RES 1: 92.841 - Low May 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.422 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.951 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.577 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Having so far failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (93.028) the

index is looking a little heavy with correcting O/B daily studies seen weighing.

Bears continue to look for a close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure

and shift initial focus to 90.550-91.577 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are found.

Bulls now need a close above 2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA

(94.716).

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Now Key Support

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.966 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.948 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support, 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg higher with focus

back on 3.041-073. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3.073 to confirm

traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and target 3.219-232 where the weekly

bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a close below 2.937 to ease bullish

pressure. Overall below the 55-DMA (2.876) is needed to shift initial focus back

to 2.814.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: $74.36 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $71.97 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $70.77 - Hourly support May 11 now resistance

*PRICE: $70.46 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 3: $68.76 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $68.34 - Hourly support May 8

*COMMENTARY: M18 is looking a little offered to start the new week with daily

studies looking to correct from modestly O/B seen weighing. Hesitation around

the daily bull channel top combined with Friday's sell-off see focus on

$66.85-68.76 where the 21-DMA is noted. Below $66.85 is needed to shift focus to

$64.10-65.59 with the 55-DMA at $65.28. Bulls now need a close above $71.97 to

reconfirm focus on $73.25-74.36.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Still Need Close Above $1332.6

*RES 4: $1340.8 - Low Apr 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 2: $1326.8 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1326.6 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1320.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1310.5 - Low May 10 

*SUP 2: $1306.3 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 4: $1293.3 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back to the 200-DMA last week resulted in a

test of key DMAs only to be rejected Friday. Bears continue to look for a close

below $1301.5 to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5). The

55-DMA capped Friday with bulls still needing a close above $1332.6 to gain

traction above key DMAs and to return focus to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs

are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]