MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $1.2072 21-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.2019 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1929 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1871 Hourly support May 10 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead of

this region. Above $1.2053 is needed to shift initial focus back to

$1.2153-1.2294. Bears now look for a close below $1.1871 to see pressure back on

2018 lows. A close below 2018 lows is needed to reconfirm a bearish bias and

focus on $1.1690-1.1716.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3617 Remains Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 1: $1.3617 High May 9

*PRICE: $1.3560 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3531 Hourly support May 11 

*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3394 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Oscillation around the 200-DMA ($1.3553) continues but follow

through remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum

divergence seen as key concerns for bears. Bulls need a close above $1.3617 to

gain breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to $1.3792-1.3922

where, 55 ($1.3922) & 100 ($1.3892) DMAs are noted. Bears still need a close

below $1.3456 to initially target $1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.45 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.17 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2

*PRICE: Y109.73 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.13 Low May 11 

*SUP 2: Y108.81 Low May 8 

*SUP 3: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 4: Y108.46 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips following recent

rejections ahead of the 200-DMA & 55-WMA. Bears still need a close below the

100-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus to

Y106.57-107.85 where the 55-DMA (Y107.35) is located. Bulls continue to look for

a close above the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98 and overall

focus to tests of 2018 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Failed To Take Out 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y132.38 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.51 21-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.37 High May 14

*PRICE: Y130.93 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.74 Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 2: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: Y129.19 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite day studies correcting from O/S and adding support to the

case for a bigger correction, bears take comfort in the hesitation around the

55-DMA (Y131.25) to start the new week. The topside failure around the 55-DMA

now sees focus back on the break of Y129.91 needed to reconfirm immediate focus

on 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to add to confidence and

above the 100-DMA (Y132.67) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Worry

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8870 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8844 High May 4

*PRICE: Gbp0.8798 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8782 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8725 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally Thursday bought bulls breathing room but the

hesitation ahead of Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is noted is less than

ideal. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8904 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and

to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease

pressure on resistance layers and below Gbp0.8725 to shift focus back to 2018

lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7679 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7571 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7528 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7518 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7490 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $0.7472 - High May 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is a concern for bulls and places

the recovery from $0.7410 in question. Bears now look for a close below $0.7518

to gain breathing room and below $0.7472 to return immediate focus to 2018 lows

and then $0.7326 June lows beneath. Bulls now need a close above $0.7590 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and above $0.7648 to shift initial focus to

$0.7679-0.7735 where the 55-DMA is located. 

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: 93.416 - 2018 High May 9 

*RES 3: 93.200 - Hourly resistance May 9 

*RES 2: 92.998 - Hourly resistance May 10 

*RES 1: 92.841 - Low May 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.644 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.948 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.738 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls again take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards

the 200-DMA as the index corrects from 2018 highs. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus to

90.543-606 where 55 & 100-DMAs are found. Bulls now need a close above 2018

highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA (94.717).

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Now Key Support

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 3.001 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.957 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.879 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg higher with focus

back on 3.041-073. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3.073 to confirm

traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and target 3.219-232 where the weekly

bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a close below 2.937 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA & ease bullish pressure. Overall below the 55-DMA (2.879) is

needed to shift initial focus back to 2.814.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.26

*RES 4: $74.36 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.06 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $71.89 - 2018 High May 10

*PRICE: $70.93 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $70.26 - Low May 14 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $68.79 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Monday bears failed to capitalise on the

break of Friday's low with bulls taking comfort in the bounce that maintains

immediate pressure on the bull channel top and then the $73.25-74.36 region

above. Bears now need a close below $70.26 to ease bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to $66.85-67.63. O/B daily studies looking to correct are the

key concern for bulls.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Struggling With Key DMAs

*RES 4: $1340.8 - Low Apr 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 2: $1326.9 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: $1317.4 - Low May 11 now resistance

*PRICE: $1313.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1310.5 - Low May 10 

*SUP 2: $1306.5 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 4: $1293.3 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back to the 200-DMA last week resulted in a

test of key DMAs only to be rejected Friday. Bears continue to look for a close

below $1301.5 to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5). The

55-DMA capped Friday with bulls still needing a close above $1332.6 to gain

traction above key DMAs and to return focus to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs

are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]