MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

17 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1889

*RES 4: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 2: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1826 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1761 2018 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1.1700 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead. The

sell-off that followed has resulted in fresh 2018 lows with bears now initially

focused on $1.1690-1.1716 with overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows. Bulls look for

a close above $1.1889 to gain breathing room and target a correction back to

$1.2014-53 where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3617 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3666 High May 2

*RES 2: $1.3617 High May 9 

*RES 1: $1.3572 High May 15

*PRICE: $1.3556 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3510 Hourly support May 16 

*SUP 2: $1.3449 2018 Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3393 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Oscillation around the 200-DMA ($1.3558) continues but follow

through remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum

divergence seen as key concerns for bears. Bulls need a close above $1.3617 to

gain breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to $1.3792-1.3917

where, 55 ($1.3912) & 100 ($1.3894) DMAs are noted. Bears now need a close below

$1.3449 to initially target $1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y110.02

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: Y110.46 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y110.21 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 3: Y109.13 Low May 11 

*SUP 4: Y108.53 Low Apr 24

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips provided the impetus for closes above the

200-DMA (Y110.18) with the pair hesitating around the 55-WMA. Bulls look for a

close above the 55-WMA to shift immediate focus to Y111.22-98 and overall focus

to the 200-WMA (Y112.97). Bears still need a close below Y110.02 to gain

breathing room and below the 100-DMA (Y108.41) to shift initial focus back to

Y107.34-85 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Focused On 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 3: Y131.30 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.25 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y130.58 Hourly resistance May 16

*PRICE: Y130.33 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y129.91 lacked follow through Wednesday which is less

than ideal for bears given daily studies correcting from O/S. Y131.37 is now key

resistance with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above

the 100-DMA (Y132.58) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. While Y131.37 caps bears

initially focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed to target the daily bear

channel base around Y132.59 today.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Initial Focus On Gbp0.8664-78

*RES 4: Gbp0.8866 200-DMA

*RES 3: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8782 High May 16 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8760 Hourly resistance May 17

*PRICE: Gbp0.8720 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8702 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8618 2018 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is noted has

resulted in closes back below the 55-DMA and now trades below Gbp0.8725 with

immediate focus now on Gbp0.8664-78. Below Gbp0.8664 confirms focus on tests of

2018 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. The Gbp0.8782

resistance is key today. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8782 to return pressure

to Gbp0.8844-0.8904.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7669 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7589 - High Apr 26

*RES 1: $0.7545 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7542 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7505 - Hourly support May 17 

*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 21-DMA after bears failed to trouble

2018 lows so far this week. Bears continue to look for a close below 2018 lows

to confirm focus on the $0.7326-68 region where May & June 17 lows are noted.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close

above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7589 to shift initial

focus back to $0.7648.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused on 200-WMA

*RES 4: 94.720 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.081 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 93.632 - 2018 High May 16

*PRICE: 93.171 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 2: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 92.551 - Hourly support May 14

*SUP 4: 92.223 - Low May 2

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 200-DMA provided the

impetus for fresh 2018 highs with bulls now focused on 94.219-720 where the

200-WMA is noted. O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close

below 92.841 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA (91.947) to hint at

a move back to 90.551-719 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3.011

*RES 4: 3.249 - High May 12 2011 

*RES 3: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 2: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 1: 3.123 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 3.100 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.058 - Low May 16 

*SUP 2: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 3: 2.985 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.937 - Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7yr highs see bulls shift initial focus to layers of

resistance 3.184-3.249 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are

situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal with the 3.011

support now key. Bears now look for a close below 3.011 to ease bullish

pressure. Overall below 2.876 is needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (2.888)

and shift focus lower.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.26

*RES 4: $74.36 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.23 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $71.92 - 2018 High May 11

*PRICE: $71.74 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $70.26 - Low May 14 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.42 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Monday bears failed to capitalise on the

break of Friday's low with bulls taking comfort in the bounce that maintains

immediate pressure on the bull channel top and then the $73.25-74.36 region

above. Bears still need a close below $70.26 to ease bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to $66.85-67.63. Modestly O/B daily studies remain the key

concern for bulls.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1317.4 - Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1306.7 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $1292.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1286.2 - 2018 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.4 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection around key DMAs Friday has resulted in fresh 2018

lows and closes below the 55-WMA ($1297.7) and 200-DMA with bears initially

focused on $1268.9-1277.7 where the 100-WMA is situated. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake

with bulls now needing a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]