MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1552

*RES 4: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1838 High May 17

*PRICE: $1.1753 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 2: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1682 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains offered with fresh 2018 lows and bears initially

focused on $1.1690-1.1716 with overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows. Daily studies

lingering around modestly O/S levels is less than ideal for bears with the

Bollinger base also expected to limit follow through. Bulls now look for a close

above $1.1838 to gain breathing room and above $1.1889 to target a correction

back to $1.1960-1.2053 where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Immediate Focus on 55-WMA

*RES 4: $1.3617 High May 9 

*RES 3: $1.3572 High May 15 

*RES 2: $1.3538 Hourly resistance May 17 

*RES 1: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18

*PRICE: $1.3437 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3400 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3293 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.3219 Low Nov 28

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains offered to start the new week with bears looking for

a close below $1.3449 to add weight to a test of $1.3300 although the 55-WMA may

slow the move. Layers of resistance accumulating are weighing with $1.3617 still

key. Bulls need a close above $1.3617 to gain breathing room and above $1.3711

to shift initial focus to $1.3792-1.3898 where, 55 ($1.3898) & 100 ($1.3891)

DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On Y111.22-98

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.96 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.22 High Jan 22

*PRICE: Y111.09 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.44 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 4: Y109.13 Low May 11

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with closes above the 55-WMA adding

support to the case for a test of Y111.22-98. A close above Y111.98 is then

needed to target Y112.97-113.75 where the 200-WMA, Dec and 2018 highs are noted.

Bears still need a close below Y110.02 to gain breathing room and below the

100-DMA (Y108.38) to shift initial focus back to Y107.34-85 where the 55-DMA is

noted. The Bollinger top (Y110.92) remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.37 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y132.14 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y131.25 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.12 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.57 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.22 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 3: Y129.16 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the failure around 21 & 55-DMAs last week.

Y131.37 remains key resistance this week with bulls needing a close above to

confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs, easing bearish pressure, and above the 100-DMA

(Y132.49) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. While Y131.37 caps bears initially

focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed to target the daily bear channel

base around Y125.45 today.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8782

*RES 4: Gbp0.8863 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8782 High May 16 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8760 Hourly resistance May 17

*PRICE: Gbp0.8746 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8618 2018 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the pair consolidating below the 55-DMA

(Gbp0.8769) once more with bears now needing a close below Gbp0.8710 to add

weight to the case for a retest of 2018 lows. Bulls continue to look for a close

above Gbp0.8782 to confirm a break above the 55-DMA and to return pressure to

Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is located. Daily studies have room to move

before O/S is an issue.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7547 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7660 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7589 - High Apr 26

*RES 1: $0.7547 - High May 17

*PRICE: $0.7524 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returned to the 21-DMA after bears failed to trouble 2018

lows last week. Bulls need a close above $0.7547 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA easing bearish pressure and above $0.7589 to shift initial focus back to

$0.7648. Bears continue to look for a close below 2018 lows to confirm focus on

the $0.7326-68 region where May & June 17 lows are noted. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg lower.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused on 200-WMA

*RES 4: 94.814 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 94.786 - 200-WMA 

*RES 2: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 1: 94.163 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 93.854 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.546 - Hourly support May 18

*SUP 2: 93.340 - Low May 18

*SUP 3: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 200-DMA provided the

impetus for fresh 2018 highs with bulls now focused on 94.219-814 where the

200-WMA is noted. O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close

below 93.340 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA (91.954) to hint at

a move back to 90.581-859 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3.058

*RES 4: 3.249 - High May 12 2011 

*RES 3: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 2: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 1: 3.134 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 3.065 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.058 - Low May 16 & 18 

*SUP 2: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 3: 2.999 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.937 - Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel top continues to cap with bull currently

focused on 3.184-3.254 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are

situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal for bulls with the

Bollinger top (3.103) also a concern. Bears look for a close below 3.058 to gain

breathing room and below 3.011 to shift focus back to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA

(2.897) is located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) $70.24 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $74.58 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.74 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $72.37 - 2018 High May 17

*PRICE: $71.89 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $71.09 - Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $70.24 - Low May 14 

*SUP 3: $69.69 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $67.57 - Low May 8

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remained on the daily bull channel top last week with

bulls currently focused on the $73.25-74.58 region where the weekly bull channel

top is located. O/B studies and daily momentum divergence are key concerns for

bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below $71.09 to gain breathing

room and below $70.24 to shift initial focus back to $66.88-67.57.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above 200-DMA To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.8 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1296.9 - High May 16

*PRICE: $1288.9 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.4 - 2018 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $1277.5 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.3 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows defined last week with closes below 55 & 200-WMAs

adding weight to the bearish case and immediate focus on $1268.9-1277.5 where

the 100-WMA is situated. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with

bulls now needing a close above the $1301.5 to gain breathing room and above the

200-DMA to hint at a correction to $1324.4-1332.6.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]