MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

24 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Overall Focus On Nov Low

*RES 4: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 1: $1.1749 Hourly support May 23 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1705 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1674 2018 Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $1.1654 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1624 High Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: Bears retain overall focus on tests of Nov lows at $1.1552

following fresh 2018 lows Wednesday. The Bollinger base is the key concern for

bears with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above

$1.1749 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA ($1.1894) to shift initial

focus to $1.2019-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3300

*RES 4: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22 

*RES 3: $1.3445 Hourly resistance May 22 

*RES 2: $1.3399 55-WMA 

*RES 1: $1.3389 Low May 23

*PRICE: $1.3370 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3303 2018 Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3297 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.3219 Low Nov 28

*COMMENTARY: Bears are currently looking to gain traction below the 55-WMA with

a close below $1.3300 needed to confirm focus on $1.2995-1.3065 where the

100-WMA is noted. The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears with potential

to limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to gain

breathing room and above $1.3617 to hint at a move back to $1.3792-1.3898 where,

55 ($1.3871) & 100 ($1.3887) DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Focused On Y107.85-108.53

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.79 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.45 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.13 Low May 11 

*SUP 2: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: Y108.31 21-WMA, 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.91 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y110.41) has

resulted in a close below the 200-DMA adding weight to the case for a correction

back to Y107.85-108.53 where the 21-WMA and 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Daily

studies correcting from O/B are a concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close

below Y109.13 to add weight to their case. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA

to gain breathing room.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Now On Y125.03-127.54

*RES 4: Y130.22 Low May 18 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.15 200-WMA

*RES 1: Y128.94 Low Mar 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y128.13 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support 

*SUP 3: Y125.24 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: Y125.03 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs left the pair looking heavy earlier

this week with bears taking comfort in Wednesday's sell-off and fresh 2018 lows

continuing. Daily studies are well placed for further losses with bears now

focusing their attention on the Y125.03-127.54 region where the 100-WMA and

daily bear channel base are found. Bulls now need a close above the 200-WMA to

gain breathing room and above Y130.22 to shift initial focus back to Y131.37.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8858 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8849 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8796 100-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8754 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8737 Low May 23 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 100-DMA capping Wednesday. Bulls now look

for a close above the 100-DMA to return initial pressure to Gbp0.8844-0.8904

where the 55-WMA & 200-DMA are located. The Gbp0.8710 support remains key this

week. Bears now need a close below this level to shift overall focus to retests

of 2018 lows with a close below Gbp0.8664 then needed to confirm.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7520 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7648 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7582 - High May 23

*PRICE: $0.7569 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7520 - Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 3: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking Tuesday with the rejection ahead

of $0.7620 seeing pressure back on support layers. Bears now look for a close

below $0.7520 to signal a false break higher and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the

bearish bias and target $0.7326-68 where May & June 17 lows are noted. Layers of

resistance remain $0.7620-72 with bulls needing a close above the falling TL

($0.7672) to shift focus to $0.7735-0.7842.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 94.219

*RES 4: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 3: 94.286 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 1: 94.188 - 2018 High May 23

*PRICE: 93.911 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.734 - High May 22 now support

*SUP 2: 93.291 - Low May 22

*SUP 3: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs lack follow through which is less than ideal with

daily studies lingering around O/B levels. Bulls now need a close above 94.219

to reconfirm a bullish bias and retain focus on the 200-WMA (94.784). Initial

support is now noted at 93.734 with bears needing a close below to gain

breathing room and below 92.841 now to shift initial focus back to 91.957-92.223

where the 200-DMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Closes Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 2: 3.030 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 1: 3.002 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.979 @ 043GMT

*SUP 1: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20, 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.826 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains offered having sold-off Friday from around the

daily bull channel top with the close below the 21-DMA confirming a shift in

focus to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA is located. Correcting O/B studies add

weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above 3.050 to gain breathing

room and above 3.128 2018 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and focus on

3.184-3.254 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $73.11 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $72.90 - 2018 High May 22 

*RES 1: $72.26 - High May 23

*PRICE: $71.66 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $71.09 - Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $70.24 - Low May 14 

*SUP 3: $70.23 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $67.57 - Low May 8

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top is less than ideal for

bulls with daily studies correcting from O/B. The 21-DMA remains key support.

Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and

shift focus back to $65.38-67.57 where the bull channel base and 55-DMA are

located. Bulls remain focused on $73.25-74.58 while the 21-DMA supports with a

close above $72.90 to add support.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1297.8-1310.5 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.9 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1297.8 - High May 23

*PRICE: $1295.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 3: $1277.5 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1268.9 - High Dec 21

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows lacked follow through Monday which is a concern for

bears give daily studies approaching O/S. In saying that, layers of resistance

remain with bulls needing a close above $1301.5 to gain breathing room and above

the 200-DMA to hint at a correction to $1324.4-1332.6. While $1301.5 caps bears

maintain focus on $1268.9-1277.5 where the 100-WMA is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]