MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

30 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1643

*RES 4: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 3: $1.1750 High May 24

*RES 2: $1.1643 Low May 25 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1604 Low May 28 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1540 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 2: $1.1477 Low July 20 

*SUP 3: $1.1431 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1409 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains offered with the break of $1.1552 now seeing bears

focused on 1.1311-1.1477 where 100 & 200-WMAs are situated. A close below

$1.1311 is now needed to initially focus on $1.1117 June 2017 lows. O/S studies

remain the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are accumulating and

weighing with bull snow needing a close above $1.1643 to ease bearish pressure

and target a correction to $1.1750-1.1838.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.2995-1.3064

*RES 4: $1.3421 Low May 23 

*RES 3: $1.3405 55-WMA 

*RES 2: $1.3351 Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 1: $1.3297 Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: $1.3253 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3203 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 2: $1.3064 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3037 Monthly Low Nov 3 

*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the pair resulted in a weekly close below the 55-WMA

which adds weight to the case for a move currently targeting $1.2995-1.3064. The

close below $1.3292 adds additional weight as layers of resistance continue to

build. Bulls now need a close above $1.3297 to gain breathing room and target a

correction back to $1.3421-1.3617 where 21 ($1.3458) & 200 ($1.3579) DMAs are

located. Above $1.3617 then targets $1.3792-1.3893.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y107.85

*RES 4: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y110.19 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y109.71 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.13 Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: Y108.65 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.09 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support 

*SUP 3: Y106.85 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y106.60 Low Apr 10

*COMMENTARY: Tuesday's sell-off saw the pair dip into the Y107.85-108.16 region

where 55 & 100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y108.10) are situated. Bears continue to

look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift

initial focus to Y106.60. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an

issue. Bulls now need a close above Y109.13 to gain breathing room and above

Y110.72 to shift initial focus back to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y126.47

*RES 4: Y128.53 High May 28

*RES 3: Y127.27 Hourly resistance May 29

*RES 2: Y126.47 Low June 28 now resistance

*RES 1: Y125.80 Alternating support/resistance

*PRICE: Y125.36 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 2: Y123.63 Low June 21 2017 

*SUP 3: Y122.40 Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 Low 

*SUP 4: Y122.38 Monthly Low June 15 2017

*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs resulted in a dip below the daily bear

channel base coming in around Y124.96. The break of the key Y125.80 level adds

weight to the case for a test of the Y122.38-40 region where the weekly bull

channel base off 2016 lows is found although a weekly close below Y125.80 would

be ideal. O/S studies and the Bollinger base (Y126.06) are hinting the move is a

little overdone. Bulls now need a close above Y126.47 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Gbp0.8854 55-WMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8849 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8793 100-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8750 Hourly resistance May 28

*PRICE: Gbp0.8703 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8618 2018 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 100-DMA capping attempts to rally with

immediate focus back on the Gbp0.8664-78 support region. Bears now need a close

below Gbp0.8664 to add weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows. The Bollinger

base is the key concern for bears and currently supports. Bulls now need a close

above Gbp0.8750 to gain breathing room and above the 100-DMA to return initial

pressure to Gbp0.8849-0.8904 where the 55-WMA & 200-DMA are located.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Returns To $0.7410 Support

*RES 4: $0.7623 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $0.7590- High May 25

*RES 1: $0.7522 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7497 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7451 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the close back below the 21-DMA with a close

below $0.7410 now needed to reconfirm the bearish bias and target $0.7326-68

where May & June 17 lows are noted. Layers of resistance are building and adding

weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and above the falling TL ($0.7650) to end bearish hopes and shift

focus to $0.7735-0.7842.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 94.277

*RES 4: 95.886 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 1: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29

*PRICE: 94.888 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.620 - Hourly support May 29

*SUP 2: 94.277 - Low May 29

*SUP 3: 93.994 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 93.611 - Low May 24

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs continue with focus now on the 95.167-95.464

resistance region. The Bollinger band top (94.860) & O/B studies remain the key

concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 94.277 to gain breathing room

and below the 21-DMA (93.385) to shift initial focus back to 91.978-92.223 where

the 200-DMA is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Focused On Apr Low

*RES 4: 2.903 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.891 - Hourly resistance May 29a 

*RES 2: 2.838 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.828 - Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: 2.824 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 2: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2 

*SUP 3: 2.648 - Low Feb 6 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs sees the yield having broken

below the 21-WMA (2.841) and bull channel base (2.867) off 2017 lows with

immediate focus now on the 2.717 Apr low. Bulls now need a close above the

100-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus

back to 2.986-3.050 where the 21-DMA (2.986) is located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Focus On $63.87-65.38

*RES 4: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 3: $68.30 - Hourly support May 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $67.96 - Hourly resistance May 25

*RES 1: $67.42 - Low May 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $66.58 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.80 - Low May 28

*SUP 2: $65.38 - Low Apr 17 

*SUP 3: $64.54 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $63.87 - High Apr 5

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top provided the impetus

for an aggressive break of $70.24 Friday. Focus has shifted to the $63.87-65.38

support region with the contract flirting with the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a

close below $63.87 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and initially target $61.73

Apr lows. Bulls need a close above $67.42 to gain breathing room and above

$68.30 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($70.02).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: $1325.6 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1320.4 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.3 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1297.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 3: $1282.7 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1277.1 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Attempts to rally remain capped by the 200-DMA despite daily

studies correcting their O/S condition. Bulls still need a close above $1310.5

to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift initial focus to $1320.4-1325.6

where 55 & 100-DMAs & the 21-WMA are noted. Bears now need a close below the

100-WMA to target the 200-WMA ($1234.3).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]